Phil Grossfield's Blog

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  My Mom wrote this in response to my post that I Can Fix America.  “You may think this funny, but it is true (some of it ) and it make sense. Just don’t get any ideas to run for president. They will dig up all kinds of things about your Mother that you don’t want to know. Love Mom”  Mom, I am more concerned about the photographs they’d find of me….

My Fun Stuff:  If you want to laugh, watch this:  Child Dance Prodigy?  If you want to win, click here:  Free Hotel Stay – Radisson.

My Market Watch:  Bonds are trading higher this morning arguably because of weak economic news out of Europe news, Spain in particular.  As a result, rates/pricing are better this morning.  To explain, economic news that is reported as poor in Europe translates to a world economy that is not expected to perform well.  In other words, traders interpret this news as bad for stocks.  As a general rule, when traders feel stocks are a bad bet, then they pull their money out of stocks and invest in bonds instead.  Put another way, when stocks are sold off (go down) then bonds generally sell (go up).  When this happens, rates/prices get better.  Keep I mind that these days traders are looking for quick profits…that is, if they can buy bonds cheap this morning, they might try to sell them off at a higher price later in the day or tomorrow to pocket the profits…can you dig it?  Let me know if you have any questions, okay?   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: I am available most of the day today….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  |1| Installing or fixing a ceiling fan is about as far out of my comfort zone as eating monkey brain.  I realize some cultures eat monkey brain and that’s just fine, but it’s not for me.  Neither is fixing a ceiling fan.  It wobbles above the master bedroom bed like its mad at us and I need to put it in its place.  After all, I am the master of my domain, am I not?  No stupid ceiling fan is going to intimidate me!  I’M THE MAN!  So, does anyone know an inexpensive handyman?   |2| In case you missed this last week, check this out:  A Stunning Map of How Foreclosures Ate America and The Words the Candidates Used.

My Market Watch:  Bonds are trading worse this morning which is not untypical for a Monday after a price improvement from Friday.  There is nothing significant scheduled for today so the markets would likely move only on geopolitical news, etc.   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: I am at the doctor this morning from 10:30-noon and then available the rest of the day.

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  |1| My daughter has learned to use the phone…and use it she does!  I guess a phone etiquette discussion is in order, eh?  |2| Check this out:  A Stunning Map of How Foreclosures Ate America.  |3| Check this out:  The Words the Candidates Used.

My Market Watch:  Bonds are trading better today as stocks move lower.  When stocks do poorly, typically traders are taking money out of the stocks to invest in bonds which improves rates/prices.  Rates should be better today.  There is a lot of volatility left in the market…stay on your toes today!   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Unavailable this morning until around 11:00….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   Yes, I can fix this country…my post yesterday is bullet-proof.  One thing I forgot to mention…after I change the Presidential term to 6 years, the President does not participate in a re-election campaign.  Rather, after the President has served 5 years, there will be a vote by the House, Senate and Congress on whether to extend the term for another 2 years for a total of 6-years.  I’ll have to figure out the exact number of votes and logistics needed but suffice it to say it will take more than just democrats or republicans to get an extension.  If not extended, the President is out after 6 years and a new election commences with brand new candidates.  This way the President is never using time and focus to get re-elected so all his or her energy is dedicated to the country for the entire 6-year term.  Did I mention yesterday that my $500 million consulting and execution fee that I will charge America will need to be paid in cash?  Oh, and I’ll need half paid up front.

My Market Watch:  Bonds are trading a little better after losing almost a point in price over the last week.  However, technical signals do not favor bonds right now.  In other words, I’m not bully on bonds.  Put yet another way, I recommend caution in how you treat locks…watch the market closely and be prepared to pull the trigger if necessary.   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Available late this morning and all afternoon….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:    I can fix this country…put me in charge!  Cut me a check for $500 million dollars and it’s done.  I don’t want to be President…that’s not what I mean.  Let me explain…I am not sure this election is good for the country or not.  That is, you could say this election is fantastic for our country because we have two intelligent candidates who are passionate about our problems and each has a plan to make things better.  This is good because it gets the American people talking intelligently about the issues and it brings us together on those issues, even if we have differing opinions on how to resolve.  On the other hand, I could argue (and so I will) this election is harmful to our country.  And to do so would require me to indict the entire electoral process and term limits (and so I will).  First, I think this country’s major issues is the result of terms that are too short…no President could resolve major issues like we have in less than three years.  I know Romney’s camp has to say that it should be fixed by now but they have to say that because they are trying to win the election.  And that’s kind of my point.  The President gets less than three years to fix the problems, unless of course he is reelected.  Three years you ask?  Yes, three years I say.  He only gets less than three years because the first 6 months of his term is a learning curve, and the last 12 months is dedicated to a reelection campaign.  It isn’t enough time and it isn’t enough focus.  An administration, regardless of which party, needs at least 6 years.  Second, the election process is ridiculous.  Each candidate should get a set amount of funds to use for his campaign and no more.  Equal funds.  A president shouldn’t be elected based on how much money they have…that’s absurd and its ruining this country. We’ve spent over $5 billion on this election alone.  $5 billion!  So here it is…to fix everything, simply increase the term to 6 years and give each candidate a set amount of money to spend on the campaign.  Done.  Fixed.  For this consultation and for executing the changes I will charge the American people a discount of only $500 million…this will save the country billions!  And I want cash.

My Market Watch:  Bonds are trading lower today and continue to slide.  However, since rates were published, we’re only down about 9bps so there is no need to panic at this time about a mid-day rate change.  If things continue to slide, I’ll try and let you know….   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Available all morning and periodically this afternoon….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   The Vice Presidential Debate:  it was spirited to say the least.  At times I felt Biden did a good job of making Ryan look like a teenager that didn’t know what his special purpose was for.  But at times Biden looked like a grumpy old man who lectured on how he used to trudge to school in 25 feet of snow with torn up shoes and he liked it that way!  Ryan was calm, cool and remained level the whole time…this strategy served him well as he let Biden go off on his condescending lectures.  However, on this debate, I give Biden the edge…despite his condescending behavior, he ultimately came across as more knowledgeable, more passionate, and more aggressive.  I like that in my men.

My Market Watch:  Bonds are trading higher and rates/pricing this morning should be slightly better.  I don’t anticipate a big trading day.   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: For the remainder of the week I am in Minneapolis visiting my parents, brother, two sisters and friends. I am working every day. Today I will grab lunch with my parents…I intend to spend time with them every day. Keep in mind it is a two-hour difference from Minneapolis to southern CA….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   |1|  My son likes the commercials more.  “Daddy, this is the show we get to watch about the things we can buy!”    |2|  My email woes from being down for part of the weekend, all day Monday and most of the day Tuesday and yesterday has finally been fixed.  The Company said there was a fiber outage in the Midwest that caused havoc while they were doing maintenance upgrades on Columbus day.  Apparently I am one of the lucky ones since my data is intact.  So, that’s good…I’m grateful.  |3|  So far my trip to Minneapolis is awesome…I have focused entirely on family thus far and will see friends tonight…but I miss my wife and kids tremendously.  |4| A Tribute to Steve Jobs:  He died just over one year ago on October 5^th…I can’t believe how fast a year has gone by since Steve Jobs passed on. With the release of the new iPhone 5, which I pre-ordered and still have not received, thoughts about Jobs have resurfaced. My friend said, “Jobs never would have allowed the iPhone 5 to be released with such a poor mapping software.” My brother said, “Jobs was smart the way he set up the OS…everything works similarly making apps easy to use and intuitive.” Last year on his passing, I wrote this tribute:

I have followed Steve Jobs throughout his amazing career. My first computer while I was in law school was a Mac…it weighed about 20 pounds and I carried to law school to prepare for finals. While practicing law I used a Mac and only switched to the dark (PC) side when I moved to CA. I have two iPhones, two iTouches, a bunch of iPods, an iPad, and a billion videos and songs from Apple. I have used many of Steve’s quotes during my Sales Manager days. In fact, I used a speech he made at Stanford University – the moral of that speech was ‘You’ve Got To Find What You Love.’ Steve was the definition of visionary and redefined the term innovation…I am very saddened by our loss. STEVE, IF YOU CAN HEAR ME MY BROTHER, please build an App to make it easier to communicate with Heaven…thanks for everything man, and take care….

If you’d like to read his speech from Stanford University, click here: You’ve Got To Find What You Love

My Market Watch:  Initial research this morning indicates bonds might be selling off today but it’s too early in Minneapolis to get a handle on the day. If in fact bonds sell this morning it should result in rates/prices to be a little worse than yesterday, but should be a minor difference.   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: For the remainder of the week I am in Minneapolis visiting my parents, brother, two sisters and friends. I am working every day. Today I will grab lunch with my parents…I intend to spend time with them every day. Keep in mind it is a two-hour difference from Minneapolis to southern CA….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  Nearly $100 is what it cost to fill my Odyssey with gas this morning.  The price at my neighborhood 7-11, which is usually less expensive than most other gas stations, was $4.45 per gallon.  And so I have made a decision to exit the mortgage industry and start a gasoline company.  Does anyone know how to do that?   |   My wife, the Travelmama, is in the audience of the Oprah Winfrey Life Class this morning where Oprah interviews Joel Osteen.  This is a bucket-list check-mark for Colleen and I’m happy for her.  Also, in case you didn’t know, I’m a big Oprah fan as well…I feel she has changed the world for the better and I respect her…I’m a little jealous….

My Market Watch:  The Jobs Report is confusing many people…the number of new jobs reported was less than expected.  Typically if less new jobs are reported than traders interpret it as a weak economy and as such they sell stocks.  When traders dump stocks it frees up money to buy bonds which improves rates/prices.  However, this Jobs Report looks funky because the Unemployment Rate fell significantly.  Wait a minute…if the unemployment rate fell, then that means more people are working, right?  But at the same time there are less new jobs than expected.  That’s a little contradictory, isn’t it?  There are two plausible answers…one is that the data has been compromised, or two, the surveys which are conducted to establish the numbers was either reported incorrectly or was distorted.  Any way you look at it, it doesn’t make sense.  As I have said many times, I definitely feel that reports are influenced either directly or indirectly by political campaigns and this certainly feels that way….  My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Today I’m working from home all day but will be unavailable after 3p….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   It didn’t disappoint…I thought it was awesome!  Last night’s Presidential debate was awesome…both candidates were articulate and to the point.  Both cited specific examples and each had the candor one would expect from the future President of the free world.  I was impressed with both of them.  Without taking sides, I think Romney got the best of it by appealing to Americans that need and want change.  Romney is extremely charismatic in the spotlight and he has a compelling delivery of his message…very Clinton-like.  Obama stammered a bit but nonetheless did an outstanding job of painting a picture that Romney’s politics would take us back to what got us into the financial crisis in the first place.  If I was going to score the debate, I’d give Romney one extra point only because of his speaking ability, but, it’s 50/50 with respect to the message each delivered.  One thing is clear to me, if you understand your own position with respect to the issues, then choosing a candidate is relatively easy…there is a clear delineation on the issues.  All that said, I thought Romney did an excellent job of explaining some of the problems with Qualified Mortgages and the issues around Dodd-Frank.  Even though he tried, Obama didn’t defend it well enough.  Unfortunately, for 99.9% of Americans, they have no clue what these guys were talking about…but anyone getting a loan these days say it’s like death by a thousand paper cuts…here’s a good write-up.  I can’t wait for the next debate!  It’s like half-time in a football game…how will the coach adjust their game plan to turn the game in their favor…it’s gonna be awesome to watch!

My Market Watch:  Rates/Prices are slightly worse today, presumably so traders can take profits from the incredible bond pricing.  When trader’s sell bonds, rates/pricing gets worse.  Tomorrow is the Jobs Report…here’s a question for you…is there anything the Jobs Report could do to improve rates?  So, again, is there more downside or upside to the Jobs Report on Friday?  Do you feel me?  My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Today I have a sick kid and a Travelmama wife that is in Houston to see Oprah Winfrey.  Therefore, I plan to take him to the doctor this morning and (let us all pray) take him to school afterwards.  I will be working from home ht remainder of the day….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   |1| Presidential Debate.  I’m excited to hear the first Presidential Debate this Wednesday night…I already have my DVR set to record since the kids aren’t exactly thrilled to watch anything remotely about politics, imagine that.  I wonder if Romney will be able to gain some ground after Clinton destroyed him with his speech at the Democratic convention.  Romney is a skilled speaker and has had a lot more practice than Obama since he had to debate during the Republican nomination process.  Being a good-looking guy doesn’t hurt and his strategy of using his business experience to fix America is extremely compelling to many struggling Americans.  I think he might be able to close the gap.  That said, Obama is comfortable on the big stage and he’s smart…very smart.  Obama has a solid understanding of the issues and is well-versed in how to explain his position.  It’s gonna be fun to watch!  |2| Appraisers.  If you know any appraisers looking to get signed up, Direct Valuation Services is growing its platform.  Appraisers can sign up easily at www.directvaluationsolutions.com. DVS is a solution for lenders and appraisers to compliantly work together again.  It is not an AMC…the appraiser works for the lender and therefore can name their price.  A good friend, mentor and colleague started this business and I’m confident it will grow fast…. |3| Comp Changes In Effect.   The window to change 4^th quarter comp is now closed.  If you changed your plan, be sure to upload a GFE that accurately reflects your new plan.  All submission uploads from this point on must contain a GFE that uses your new plan, even if previously locked, can you dig it?  Email me for more information.

My Market Watch:  Rates/Prices should be the same this morning although rates haven’t been published as I write this update.  This week is relatively light in economic data until Friday when the Jobs Report comes out.  The Jobs Report has a way of influencing traders to make big moves and thus traditionally affects the markets.  I’ll let you know if I catch any revealing news this week.  I think the pending election might have an impact on the numbers, but certainly vice-versa.  My Disclaimer

My Schedule: I have a busy day today…I’m on kid-duty this morning until 9:00am and then I have a 10:00am conference call and a noon luncheon appointment.  After that I’m open until 4:00pm and then I’m meeting a close friend for Happy Hour.