Phil Grossfield's Blog

A LITTLE EXTRA…

Monthly Archives: August 2012

“Grave Concern” Bernanke Speaks; Disneyland; TravelMamas Book!

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   I watched some of the festivities as Mitt Romney officially accepted the republican presidential nomination.  He is a very accomplished speaker…I thought he did a pretty good job.  And it doesn’t hurt that the guy is very good looking, as my wife pointed out.  What I find interesting is that the scheduled date of the convention…was it a coincidence that Romney’s speech was delivered the night before the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the economy is a “grave concern?”  Hmmm.  ||  I’m going to Disneyland tomorrow morning early and I’ll be returning Monday…I hear the crowds will be light, the lines short, the heat very mild, and the cost minimal.  |||  My wife, better known as the Travel Mama is launching her book in November!  I would appreciate your support so please reply if you’re interested in receiving updates and discounts related to the book!

My Market Watch:  Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman, delivered his speech this morning in Jackson Hole and basically said that the economic situation was in need Fed action.  Both stocks AND bonds reacted positively to the news…this is one of those rare moments when stocks and bonds move in the same direction.  As a result, traders had reason to invest in both when usually traders sell bonds or stocks in order to free up money to invest in the other.  Bernanke said the Central Bank “will provide additional policy accommodation as needed” to spur growth.  Here is the report from Bloomberg on Bernanke’s speech.     My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Working from home this morning and then out this afternoon.  I will be unavailable after 4:00p….

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Who Really Loves You?

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   Question – How many people really love you?  Write their names down. Perspective my friends.   ||   The NMLS sent a reminder to LOs about CE – Continuing Education for 2012.  If you did not know, you are required to do CE for 8-hours annually.  For details see state specific CE requirements here.

My Market Watch:  Rates are similar to yesterday in some spots and a little worse.  Trading appears to be flat…again probably waiting for Bernanke’s speech on Friday.  Read my post about this here:  Ben Bernanke Speaks.    My Disclaimer

NMLS Continuing Education Requirements; I DID NOT Walk Out With More

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   The NMLS sent a reminder to LOs about CE – Continuing Education for 2012.  If you did not know, you are required to do CE for 8-hours annually.  For details see state specific CE requirements here.   ||   It occurred to me that I walked out of the races this weekend with winning tickets in my hand.  That is, I forgot to cash them in.  Arrrrg.  So now I have to go back to the track and cash them in.  Arrrrg.  Do I have to pay for parking so I can cash them in?  Do I have to pay to get in to cash them in?  Arrrrg.  I guess I’ll have to go over there and find out….

My Market Watch:  Rates are a little better than yesterday in some spots and the same in most others.  Trading appears to be flat…probably waiting for Bernanke’s speech on Friday.  Read my post about this here:  Ben Bernanke Speaks.   According to CoreLogic, foreclosures have decreased since last year, that’s promising.  And, inventories of existing homes continued to trend downward, that’s good too.  Although the economy is still dragging, the housing market appears to be doing better, nice, eh?   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Behind the computer all day….

I Walked Out With More; Ben Bernanke Speaks

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   I walked out with more money than I walked in with.  Winner!!  It took a couple of races to figure out that in order win any money I had to limit my betting (and my wife’s betting).  That is, on one race I bet $25 and ended up winning $27.50.  It’s fun to win but $2.50 wasn’t going to make up for the parking fee, the entry fee, and all the beverages and food.  So I changed my strategy and focused in on a couple horses…I paid no attention to what my wife was doing…let it ride baby!  I decided to take two horses that were not the favorites but were expected to be in the top five. Then I put some different bets on those two horses.  It worked!  Later in the evening we figured it all out…after all the expenses of going to the races, and after taking into consideration the amount of money we wagered, we walked out with about $5.  That’s HUGE!  As Charlie Sheen would say, “WINNING!”

My Market Watch:  Rates are same as Friday…I guess two mid-day price changes on Friday afternoon was enough by Capital Markets.  The big news is Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke who will deliver a speech in Jackson Hole.  As you know, whenever Mr. Bernanke appears in public the markets will react.  Traders will be focused on him…they will of course be listening vigilantly to his speech…they will be using their decoder rings to find the hidden message about Central Bank’s possible actions to stimulate the economy.  Traders will study the clothes Bernanke has chosen to wear…a lot of green for example will surely result in more bank action.  And they’ll be looking for patterns in his breathing, facial movements and body language similar to the way a poker player studies his opponent.  Some traders have spent countless hours studying the art of reading these bodily signs to determine the true meaning behind someone’s outward actions and statements.  And don’t forget his mood, yes Bernanke’s mood will surely be the answer to knowing what will happen and what the Central’s Banks future intentions will be, and………………….  My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Behind the computer all day….

Off To The Races!

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   I’m off to the races!  I haven’t been to the Del Mar Race Track in a few years…just didn’t seem like something I wanted to do…I even stopped playing poker and I was a pretty strong player.  Why did I stop playing you ask?  Simply put, I was afraid to lose money.  In the last few years, like most of us in this crazy industry, my income took a significant hit.  Well, you just can’t gamble if you’re afraid to lose.  At the races it’s not that big of a deal…betting on the horses is like going to the movies…it’s a form of entertainment.  But I took poker more seriously…I’ve read over a dozen books on poker…I like the math and I love reading people to see if they’re bluffing…I love the psychology of it.  Don’t get the wrong idea, it’s not like I was a professional gambler…but I played recreationally often enough and in some tough games on occasion which was really fun…and, I won more than I lost.  But when the industry turned, I knew immediately it was time to only play in friendly home-games.  My father taught me well…never gamble what you cannot afford to lose.  And here’s my added advice…if you’re scared to lose, you’ll lose…it’s a guaranteed formula.  Now, let’s go to the races!

My Market Watch:  Bonds held their ground yesterday but they are losing the battle today.  Already this morning we’ve had a mid-day price worsening which is already reflected in the rates above.  As I type the bond is dancing on the 50-day moving average…if it falls below it could tumble downward…it’s a scary time right now if you’re lock is sensitive.  I encourage you to read my post from last Friday…I’ve had a lot of positive comments about My Glass Elevator Analogy post from Friday…if you have questions, call or email.   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Behind the computer most of the day but off the clock a little early for the Races!

Football! Bed Woes

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   It’s About time…football season is upon us!  I like baseball and even went to a couple games.  But it’s not my first choice, or second choice.  Football, basketball and golf are the sports of choice for me.  And the Padres haven’t made an argument for me to change that position…at least not this year.  There are so many exciting things to watch in the NFL this year.  Like Peyton Manning, Randy Moss, the New Orleans Saints and the list goes on.  Oh boy!  Oh boy!   ||  My son does not want to sleep in his own bed.  He’s not scared…he just doesn’t want to sleep in it because his bed sits on the floor.  Yes, I’m a cheap bastard and put the trundle from under my daughter’s bed in his room so I wouldn’t have to go and buy a new bed.  He claims it hurts his neck but I don’t buy it…he’s four-years old for the love of all things holy in this land…how could it hurt his neck?  I wouldn’t mind so much but I can’t sleep when he’s in my bed…he sleeps like he’s possessed by the Tasmanian Devil…I slept on the couch last night.  I guess I have to buy him a new bed, eh?

My Market Watch:  Yesterday there were two mid-day price improvements.  Bonds continue to perform well this morning.  Today should prove interesting because the bond is trading right on moving averages which I explained in My Glass Elevator Analogy post from Friday.   My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Behind the computer most of the day with only one short appointment this morning….

My Recent Posts:  Bonds Rallying; First Day of School  |  Ned Ryerson from Groundhog Day; Temporary Turn-times  |  I Found The Culprit; CFPB Report  |  Glass Elevator Analogy from Friday  |  Look Out Below! Don’t Let Your Locks ExpireLTV Improvements! Bonds Suffering – Don’t Let Your Locks Expire!  |  I missed you! Now put ‘em up! The Rich Get Richer  |  It Wouldn’t Start; Bonds  |  Streetlinks; Bonds

Bonds Rallying; First Day of School

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   Today is my daughter’s first day of 2nd grade.  What the heck is going on?  She’s growing up so fast it’s freaking me out.  I remember second grade…I remember I was confused a lot.  I’ve been trying to share with her what I remember so she feels “normal.”  I just hope she doesn’t find out for a while how truly odd her father is.

My Market Watch: Bonds rallied yesterday and started off much better this morning…pricing looks to be better by 0.375 in spots.  Stocks in general weren’t performing well but when Apple announced poor earnings, the market really took it hard. This morning Dell reported poor numbers and Existing Home Sales were slightly worse than expected.  All this is working in favor of Bonds and rates.  My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Available all day…my Inbox is challenging right now so please be patient with replies….

My Recent Posts:  Ned Ryerson from Groundhog Day; Temporary Turn-times  |  I Found The Culprit; CFPB Report  |  Glass Elevator Analogy from Friday  |  Look Out Below! Don’t Let Your Locks Expire|  LTV Improvements! Bonds Suffering – Don’t Let Your Locks Expire!  |  I missed you! Now put ‘em up! The Rich Get Richer  |  It Wouldn’t Start; Bonds  |  Streetlinks; Bonds

Ned Ryerson from Groundhog Day; Temporary Turn-times

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  Ned Ryerson from Groundhog Day…remember him?  Ned-The-Head…Needle-Nose-Ned…bing!  He was a character but you had to love him!  Our docs and funding departments pump out an extraordinary large amount of docs sets and fundings each month…you gotta love them.  But recently they’ve been going through some changes.  For example, we are in the process of finding a new Funding Department Manager so if you know anyone in Chicago that might be interested please let me know.  Our volume is tremendous…we’re driving fast…when you’re putting out the number of doc sets and funding as many loans as we do each day, even a slight bump in the road can take the wheels off the road.  I am temporarily quoting an extra day on doc instructions and an extra day on doc sets despite the schedule, and, I’m quoting 5 days in funding.  As always, purchases get priority.  Clip of Ned Ryerson from Groundhog Day

My Market Watch: So if you’ve readany of my recent posts you know that bonds trade in large part based on moving averages.  That is, traders make decisions based on whether the price of bonds goes above a ceiling of resistance or below a floor of support.  Stocks are trading in a similar position today…if they break above a ceiling of resistance they could really gain a lot of momentum.  Of course if that happens, the price of bonds would surely suffer since there is an inverse relationship with stocks.  That is, when stocks go up, usually bonds go down and when that happens, rates get worse.  It’s early yet but I highly recommend you keep your eye on the stock market and be prepared to lock a sensitive loan should it become apparent stocks are on the rise.  My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Available all day….

My Recent Posts:  I Found The Culprit; CFPB Report  |  Glass Elevator Analogy from Friday  |  Look Out Below! Don’t Let Your Locks Expire|  LTV Improvements! Bonds Suffering – Don’t Let Your Locks Expire!  |  I missed you! Now put ‘em up! The Rich Get Richer  |  It Wouldn’t Start; Bonds  |  Streetlinks; Bonds


Temporary Turn-Times: (in calendar days)

Locks:              45-day locks recommended for all loans at a minimum.
Submission:    10-days from lock…your submission package must be uploaded within 10 days or your lock will be cancelled.
Purchases:      3 days after submission package uploaded…prioritized throughout the process….
Refinances:     9 days after submission package uploaded.
Conditions:     2-3 days from last uploaded document.
Audit-CTC:      3 days from the last condition being cleared.
CICs:                1-2 days to process a change in circumstance.
Docs:               1-2 extra days from your scheduled date.
Funding:         4-5 days for document review and issuance of funding conditions.


Updated Frequently:                                                                                 

My Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration.

My Procedures are updated all the time – check it out.…

I Found The Culprit; CFPB Report

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  There is a very gratifying feeling with successfully fixing something yourself. Keep in mind that calling me a handyman would be a gross exaggeration…something like calling Donald Trump modest.  Anyway, over the years my father-in-law helped me with enough projects that I’m much more confident about tackling things I never would have attempted in the past.  But when it comes to computers, I’ve always been more confident and adventurous…it’s the geek in me I guess.  About 4 months ago after I bought my traveling-crazed wife a new lightweight Ultrabook computer, I inherited her old 100-pound slow-running and hot-to-the-touch laptop.  Mind you “old” means within five years in the computer age…it was still a perfectly adequate albeit unpleasant machine in its present condition.  So, I decided to self-refurbish her old computer and see if I could use it.  That meant defaulting the computer to factory settings and reinstalling all the software one program at a time, etc.  Although it sounds somewhat painless, it was a pretty big project.  And I executed it successfully and the laptop had worked flawlessly for four months.  UNTIL, just the other day at Starbucks it made some clicking sounds and then sparks sprung out from the mini fan…yes sparks!  YOWZA!  The person sitting next to me at Starbucks gave me a pretty concerned look, that same sort of look I get from kid-less observers to one of my kids having a mini-tantrum in a public place.  I chuckled, shut down, and headed home.  It was time to fix the computer!  I decided there must be a tiny broken piece of plastic or something in the fan causing the sparks.  And so, I took the laptop completely apart to investigate…I mean I totally dismantled it…see the picture.  I cleaned every millimeter of the innards with a small brush and then carefully reassembled everything.  Not only did I find the culprit causing the sparks, but it was extremely dusty and dirty in there…now it’s spotless and running beautifully.  Success!  Satisfaction!  For now anyway….

My Schedule: Available all day….

My Market Watch:  Rates are slightly better today by 0.125 in certain places.  With little reports this week you can expect rates to trade opposite the stock market, that is, if stocks perform well, bonds will probably not and rates will remain worse or get worse.  Conversely, if stocks perform poorly, then rates could improve.  Tomorrow is the Fed Minutes release from the last meeting and that sometimes triggers movement if something pops up on the minutes that was not acknowledged after the actual meeting.  Otherwise, everyone is watching the bond’s movement to see if it stays above certain moving averages (floors of support and ceilings of resistance)…read my Glass Elevator Analogy from Friday||  Did you see the CFPB report?  “CFPB” stands for Consumer Financial Protection Bureau…they are the financial services watchdog of late.  Anyway, they just put a report that recommends lenders and Brokers offer on every single loan a no-fee, no-point mortgage and they seem to have abandoned their suggestions for a mandatory flat fee by LOs which is good in my opinion.  Also, they are suggesting more or revised LO qualification requirements and specific requirements for conflict resolution.  Here are the proposed CFPB rules, here is the link to the CFPB release, here is an article by The Wall Street Journal, and here is a link to a CFPB website with a nice little video for consumers to watch.  |||   DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST!    My Disclaimer


Updated Frequently:                                                                                 

My Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration.

My Procedures are updated all the time – check it out.…

The Glass Elevator Analogy

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST!

My Schedule: I am working from home all morning and then out this afternoon but available….

My Market Watch:  The Fannie 30-year bond is dancing on a floor of support and the question is, will that floor become a ceiling?  Phil, what the heck are you talking about?  Well, think of bonds as a glass elevator…when traders buy bonds the glass elevator goes up and when it sells it goes down.  Now, if you visualize the glass elevator, when the elevator goes up it goes past ceilings and when it goes down it goes past floors, right?  Got that?  Okay, from afar, you don’t know whether the elevator will go up to the top floor, or just up one or two floors before coming back down.  But you do know that each time the elevator reaches a new floor, there’s a chance it might slow down and stop.  That’s how traders look at the market.  There are established floors and ceilings called moving averages.  As the bond trades it goes up and down near these floors and ceilings.  Traders know if the elevator goes past a floor, the next opportunity for it to stop is at the next floor up or down.  So, they trade accordingly…they might buy more thinking it will keep going up and then when it nears the next floor they start to sell in anticipation of heading down in the opposite direction, and vice versa.  Right now the bond is trading right on the 100-day moving average (S1) and traders are trying to figure out if it will go up or down.  They are thinking, will the elevator go up to the next floor and should I buy now?  Or, will it go down to the next floor below and should I sell while I’m ahead?  Can you dig it?  Does that make sense?  Let me know if you have any questions or comments, okay?  WHATEVER YOU DO, DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST!   Disclaimer


UPDATED FREQUENTLY:                                                                                 

My Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration

My Procedures are updated daily – check it out…

 

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