Phil Grossfield's Blog

A LITTLE EXTRA…

Monthly Archives: August 2013

Adopt A Puppy? Huh?! Lock Monday, Not Today

LaborDayAdopt A Puppy? Huh?!   I avoid pet stores that sell kittens and puppies for a reason…I cannot look at their faces or I’d buy them all. Keep reading….  I trust you will have a fantastic relaxing Labor Day Weekend. I have no idea what I’m doing this weekend but my wife has plenty planned…I promise.

We are probably going to hit the Del Mar races, which I always enjoy. And I know there’s more than one neighbor get together planned. PuppyearstraightOr, Maybe we’ll adopt a puppy?! Huh?! The Helen Woodward Animal Center, which is 5-minutes from my house and hosts a summer animal camp my kids attend, is offering a $5,000 reward for information to the blanking evil person responsible for mutilating four puppies. But I can’t focus on that…just too evil…let’s focus on the positive, shall we?! The pups are up for adoption. I have a feeling if we make it over there I will be bringing home a puppy. That is, if my wife and/or kids find their way to the center, there is no way one of those puppies won’t be coming home with us. This is precisely why I avoid stores that sell puppies and kittens. I just can’t look them in the eye and walk away…it’s not in my nature. Lord help me! Truth be told, I really don’t need another creature in my house. But look at that face…oh Lord!

My Schedule:  I have a meeting at 10:00a and another just after lunch….

My Market Watch:   Bonds Up Slightly – Pricing Unchanged From Yesterday’s Improvements – Lock Monday, Not Today.  The 30-year Fannie Mae bond was trading slightly higher this morning but not enough to warrant an improvement in pricing, particularly after yesterday’s boost. Moreover, the way things are shaping up at the end of the month, I think this is a good time to lock in…but wait until Monday.

War is Still bad. But war is still not necessarily bad for bonds. However, now we must think about whether the U.S. will strike Syria after the UK Parliament voted against it. So, here are some things to consider over the long weekend. obamaukWill the U.S. strike Syria? If they do, we should expect the stock market to decline and the bond market to react positively. The reason is traders would rather not invest in stocks when there is market instability, and there is almost always market instability when we go to war. If traders pull money out of stocks, they almost certainly invest in bonds and when that happens our pricing improves. With September upon us, will the Fed begin tapering QE? If they do, and I think they will, we will see a sharp decline in bonds, and when that happens pricing will worsen. One thing is certain, September is going to be a wild ride. With yesterday’s improvements, I’d like in over the weekend.

Remember, unless you think pricing will change today, wait until Monday to lock. Our pricing remains good over the weekend until Monday night at 9:45p. If you lock Monday rather than today, you pick up 3 days on your lock term for free.

My Disclaimer 

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War Is Bad; Bonds Up & Down; Full of Myself;

MLK_signFull of Myself In January of this year I wrote a post about my daughter trying to understand discrimination. I like that post. In fact, I like it so much I’m going to cut and paste it for you right here:

1/21/2013 www.PhilGrossfield.com

Gloriously oblivious. We watched Martin Luther King’s I have a Dream speech with the kids Saturday morning. “What is he talking about?” asked the 7-year old. I tried to explain, “you see honey, there was a time when people weren’t treated equally, in fact, people still aren’t treated equally, and Martin Luther King stood up for those people and motivated all the people you see on the computer and people all around the country to stand up for people who were not being treated fairly.” Not bad, eh? MLK_quote“Why weren’t they being treated equally Daddy?” I stammered on this one…my wife looked at me puzzled as well. How do you tell a 7-year old girl, whose concept of bigotry and baseless hatred is as foreign as the workings of the Large Hadron Collider? How do I explain to a girl whose second grade class is made up of 20+ different cultures that there was a time when we enslaved people based on the color of their skin? More importantly, do I want to explain it? My wife tried and stuttered an explanation to no avail…my daughter didn’t get it, and that’s just fine by me. Gloriously oblivious.

I have a dream that little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.


Processor Needed In Irvine for In-House Position. Please advise if you are aware of a processor that is out of work and is available to work in Irvine. The broker wants someone in-house to work at his office. Please keep in mind that this opportunity is only for someone currently out of work. I will not refer anyone currently employed with one of my clients. Please have the candidate email me his or her resume. Thanks.


My Schedule: Available all day….

My Market Watch: War Is Bad; Bonds Up & Down – But Pricing Is Worse. The 30-year Fannie Mae bond was trading lower this morning after positive economic reports came in, specifically the jobless claims. As a result, traders put money into stocks and pulled money out of bonds. When that happens, pricing gets worse. But the unrest in Syria has traders on the edge of their seats.

syriaWar is bad. But war is not necessarily bad for bonds. I know, I know, but it’s true. War gives stock traders the cringes because it usually results in market instability around the world. For example, if the U.S. launches missiles on Syria, it’s expected that Syria will launch missiles on Israel. Of course, Israel will retaliate and when they do they are usually pretty darn effective. Simply put, it’s just a safer investment to put money into bonds rather than stocks when people are trying to blow each other up. That said, please don’t pray for war, but when the U.S. launches an assault in Syria, it’s a pretty good bet the stock market will flail and bonds will pick up some steam. If so, pricing should improve…. In fact, I feel like pricing might even improve today. If my Mom asked me for advice, I’d tell her to float this morning and wait to see if a pricing improvement comes this afternoon…and I love my Mom.

My Disclaimer

Salmon Spawning; STRONG RATES as Bonds Climb!

salmonSalmon Spawning Skagway   Here in the river were thousands and thousands of spawning salmon. They made it! They got past the fisherman, past the bears, and all the way to their original birthing grounds 7 years or so prior. Here they are at the end of their life…idling in the stream and ready to spawn…ready to complete their life’s journey.

There are so many of them, and they are swimming just enough to remain idle…you could literally reach down and grab one with your bare hands. skagwayThese fish are protected since they are spawning…if you touch one you go to jail…they take this very seriously in Alaska.  But you wouldn’t want to eat one of these anyway since they are at the end of their lives…not good eats. I thought this was super cool. Click here to see a short 20-second video of the spawning salmon I took.  By the way, just up the mountain we stopped to take a look at the view…and what a view it was…check it out in this 20 second panoramic video I took.


Processor Needed In Irvine for In-House Position.  One of my brokers has asked me to help him find a processor for an in-house position. Please advise…have the candidate send me his or her resume via email.


My Schedule:  I have a meeting at noon today and otherwise available….

My Market Watch:   Bonds Up – Pricing Improved.  The Fannie Mae bond is trading up again today +21 as of early this morning. The reason for the upswing is uncertainty across seas, specifically Syria. Unrest in the world results in traders preferring the bond market over the stock market which is much more greatly affected by such things.  When traders pull money out of stocks and instead invest in bonds our rates/pricing improve.

The bond has been performing well since Friday. In fact, it’s been doing so well that it is now approaching a ceiling of resistance. This is a nice change of pace because for the last 3 months I feel like I’ve been writing only about declines in prices. c28Let me explain how this works…when traders are trying to decide when to buy and sell bonds, they look to geopolitical news and economic reports for guidance. Then they look to technical signals as shown in the graphic…the bond is now approaching Ceiling 2. Think of it as a glass elevator going up to the next floor…will it stop and go down or will it keep going up? Traders try to guess…they want to buy low and sell high. If the bond breaks through the ceiling it means traders are still buying bonds…the price will keep going up. When traders feel like it’s gone as high as its going to go, then they sell to make a profit. These ceilings and floors (called moving averages) help traders make those decisions. We want to see the bond trade above the ceiling because traders will then look to the next ceiling up, Ceiling 3, for guidance. I hope that makes sense.

For more information on QE and tapering, read my QE analysis from earlier this week.

My Disclaimer


Perspective.  30-Year Fixed Average Rates:  Past 40 years:  8.15%    Past 30 years:  7.45%    Past 20 years:  6.52%    Past 10 years:  5.72%

A word on locks.  Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension.  This is good smart business.

 

First Day of School

First Day Of School 

firstdayschool1     firstdayschool

 

The Best Day Skagway

dogsledding4The Best Day – Skagway   I saw spawning salmon and went dog-sledding in a stunning environment. In a New York accent, “forget about it.”  The coolest thing was the salmon, but I’ll talk about that tomorrow. When we got off the ship a bus drove us up a mountain and dropped us off at a river which we had to cross.

On the other side we got into a WWII German Unimog, a rough terrain vehicle with a machine gun portal that was strong enough to take us up the mountain to the dogs. dogsledding2Then we got into a go-cart vehicle with 14 or so dogs barking frantically…excitedly…they were ready and wanting to run! The exhilaration was palpable…my kids were beaming, as was I. And off we went, and it’s fast! Although I didn’t record our own journey, I took a short video of the trainers bringing in some dogs to give you an idea of what it was like. After that we got to hold puppies and heard a story from one of the dog sledding racers. All in all it was a highlight of our trip, one of the memories that will never escape us.

By the way, my wife, The Travel Mama, went dog sledding for real last year, you know, like in the snow through the mountains. She wrote a captivating and exhilarating post about it…check it out:  Dog-Sledding Is Not for Wimps.

My Schedule:  I have a full day…a meeting at 11:30 over lunch, a conference call at 1:30p and an early evening meeting at 4:00p.

My Market Watch:   The Fed Met. Bonds Were Up, Now Down – Pricing Worse For Fixed and the Same for ARMs.  The Fannie Mae bond is trading flat for the day…par. But because bonds started out up and lost ground, Interbank already issued a mid-day rate change for the worse.

My prediction that pricing would improve yesterday morning proved correct, but throughout the day the bonds sold off and price worsenings were issued. We just can’t seem to keep bonds trading positive…they keep dropping and dropping despite hopeful mini-rallies. The reason bonds started on an upswing yesterday was because of ambiguous information from the Fed meeting…ambiguity was our friend since there was no significant discussion regarding QE tapering. Here was my analysis from Monday:  my explanation of QE and my analysis on the Fed Meeting.

My Disclaimer


Perspective.  30-Year Fixed Average Rates:  Past 40 years:  8.15%    Past 30 years:  7.45%    Past 20 years:  6.52%    Past 10 years:  5.72%

A word on locks.  Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension.  This is good smart business.

 

Fed Meeting; LO Comp Rules; Poker Solstice

poker2Poker Solstice   I won twice…two for two. Because my daughter was sick and was quarantined to our stateroom for 24 hours, and because my wife and son went ashore in Juneau to traverse up a mountain, I stayed on-board the Celebrity Solstice and played poker. During my cruise I played only twice, but won both times. Not bad, eh? And, the prize money covered all of our expenses on the cruise for the entire voyage.

I tell you what, a professional poker career seems like a viable option. The only problem I foresee are the 99% of other poker players that are better than me. But you got to start somewhere, right? Wrong.

CFPBInstead I’ll focus on how to make money in the mortgage industry, which is what you need to start thinking about as well. Have you seen the new rules coming out on January 10? Here is Fannie’s announcement about ATR – Ability To Repay, QM – Qualified Mortgages, and the new compensation rules:  Fannie Guide Announcement.  And here is a video by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – CFPB explaining Qualified Mortgages and Ability To Repay guidelines.

My Schedule:  I have a meeting this morning at 10a and won’t be available until after noon.

My Market Watch:   The Fed Speaks Today at 11a.  Bonds Flat So Far – Pricing Slightly Improved For Fixed and Same for ARMs.  The The Fannie Mae bond is down -9bps on the day which basically nothing…flat. All eyes and ears are focused on the Fed announcement at 11a this morning.  Yesterday I explained QE and discussed the implications of this morning’s Fed Meeting in my post. Click here to see my explanation of QE and my analysis on today’s Fed Meeting.

My Disclaimer


Perspective.  30-Year Fixed Average Rates:  Past 40 years:  8.15%    Past 30 years:  7.45%    Past 20 years:  6.52%    Past 10 years:  5.72%

A word on locks.  Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension.  This is good smart business.


distinguish_yourselfDistinguish Yourself. In order to succeed in this business and in this market, you must find a way to distinguish yourself from other LOs. That is, if you are going to get more reliable referral sources, you must be able to clearly convey several compelling reasons why they should use you….My calendar is getting full – I am scheduling presentations to discuss (1) How to Be Successful In The Future Market, (2) Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and (3) How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs.  Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….

Hold On To Your Booties! The Fed Speaks; Bear Excursion or Ziplining In Ketchikan?

bears2Bear Excursion or Ziplining In Ketchikan? I pictured salmon jumping into the air and bears catching them in their mouths. In fact, my in-laws went to Alaska last year and that’s exactly what they saw and showed us about a thousand pictures. But that was not the case for us in Ketchikan, Alaska.

Our excursion started around noon…they took Colleen and I to the rain forest and we headed out on a bear hunt. We positioned ourselves above on viewing bridges and then waited…and waited…and waited some more…no bears. An hour passed by…no bears. Ninety minutes passed by…no bears. Apparently the river was so low that bears were down-stream since salmon weren’t fighting the shallow water. Colleen and I were beginning to regret our decision to take this excursion in place of zip-lining, particularly since the zip-liners were cruising over our heads from tree to tree and squealing with pleasure. I was not pleased, not pleased at all.

And then we saw him. He was a big black bear and headed right for us. I have to say, it was pretty anti-climatic for me. Yes, it’s a bear alright. All he did was walk past us and head up-stream. Big whoop. Here’s a 23-second video I took of the bear. In hindsight, the bear excursion was not a highlight of the trip. Still, it was nice to get out into nature. But……..zip-lining anyone?

My Schedule: I have a call from 1:00 – 2:30p…otherwise available.

My Market Watch: The Fed Speaks Tomorrow! Bonds Up This Morning – Pricing Improved. The Fannie Mae bond is up +44bps on the day. Yes! It’s about time, geez! I presume the increase in bond buying by traders is purely an attempt to take advantage of low prices from the last few business days. But that’s not the story…the Fed speaks tomorrow and my guess is that it’s going to be a big deal. What are they going to say? Will they affirm the recent decision to taper QE? If so, how soon and to what extent? Are they going to accelerate the tapering? HOLD ON TO YOUR BOOTIES!

What is Quantitative Easing – QE? Quantitative Easing is a term used to describe the Fed’s intervention strategy into the bond market. In an effort to stabilize the market by keeping interest rates low, the Fed employed a strategy of buying billions of dollars of bonds. Put another way, the Fed created an artificial market of low-interest rates during our economic crisis by buying bonds each month. This strategy has kept rates low and stimulated the mortgage business for a long time.
Ben2What does tapering QE mean? A few months ago Ben Bernanke and the Fed announced their strategic decision to begin tapering QE. This means they intend to decrease the amount of bonds the Fed buys. They are doing this because they feel the economy has recovered enough to withstand a more natural lending environment where they don’t have to buy billions of bonds each day. Because the Fed has said it will decrease, or taper its buying of bonds, traders have pulled their investments out of bonds and as a result rates and pricing have worsened dramatically over the last 3 months.

What is all the buzz about tomorrow’s meeting? Many believe our economy is strong enough to withstand tapering…they want the Fed to significantly decrease the buying of bonds, and right now. Others, like myself, feel the economy is still extremely fragile and want the government to continue buying bonds…or at the very least limit tapering to a minimum and stretch it out over a long period of time. Tomorrow everyone is expecting some insight from the Fed on what they intend to do.

towerofterrorHow will tomorrow’s Fed Meeting affect us? If traders interpret tomorrow’s meeting as a reaffirmation of QE tapering, and if they feel the Fed intends to accelerate either the amount of tapering or the speed of tapering, then the bond market will drop like the Tower of Terror at Disneyland. If that happens, our rates/pricing will get worse…much worse. On the other hand, if the Fed softens their language, and they give traders the impression that QE will continue in strong force for some time to come, then we could see a significant reversal in bond trading. In this case traders would invest in bonds and when that happens the bond price increases and our rates/pricing will improve greatly.

What’s going to happen? How should I know?! If I knew such things I’d be a billionaire. But I will try. First, Ben Bernanke and a few other bigs will not be attending tomorrow’s meeting and I think this is to our advantage. I am hoping that no significant policy to increase tapering is disclosed in their absence. I’m putting my money on improved pricing tomorrow. However, according to Bloomberg 65% of economists believe the Fed will begin scaling back QE as early as next month by nearly 10%. If there is any reference to these kind of numbers it will get ugly. I hope tomorrow is a non-event…if so I think it will benefit us. Let’s just hope nobody puts their foot in their mouth when they see the reporters….

My Disclaimer


Perspective. 30-Year Fixed Average Rates: Past 40 years: 8.15% Past 30 years: 7.45% Past 20 years: 6.52% Past 10 years: 5.72%

A word on locks. Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension. This is good smart business.


distinguish_yourselfDistinguish Yourself. In order to succeed in this business and in this market, you must find a way to distinguish yourself from other LOs. That is, if you are going to get more reliable referral sources, you must be able to clearly convey several compelling reasons why they should use you….My calendar is getting full – I am scheduling presentations to discuss (1) How to Be Successful In The Future Market, (2) Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and (3) How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs. Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….

A-Rod – Dempster Yankees – Red Sox

arod_dempsterA-Rod – Dempster Yankees – Red Sox   Dempster’s an idiot. That being said, this was a great game…it had everything!  (1) You have the perfect villain in Alex Rodriguez. Why is he perfect?  Because it’s hard to hate him. He’s always calm and he always says the right thing. I want him to be innocent of using performing enhancing drugs…I really do. And I want to believe him…for real.

But it’s hard to believe him because everyone who claims innocence after being accused of taking PEDs ends up being guilty, and worse yet, they almost always end up admitting it once the evidence is too strong to justify continued denial. That just enhances the deception and deceitfulness. When it comes to PEDs, a player is guilty until proven innocent. Despite being a defense-attorney at heart, I can’t help but take this same position with A-Rod…he’s guilty until he proves to me otherwise. arodSorry man, I want to believe you…and I really do hope you’re found innocent.  

(2) Dempster throws a pitch behind A-Rod’s legs. Okay, message sent…we’ll let it go even though I think the whole throwing pitches intentionally at a ballplayer is ridiculous and shows the worst in sportsmanship. BTW, I find fighting in hockey equally disgusting…but that is an argument for another day. Then after throwing three balls in a row (3-0), and thus knowing a strike is required, Dempster hits A-Rod square. Are you blanking kidding me?! That one we can’t let go. What an idiot. (3) Later in the game A-Rod takes one deep against Dempster for a home-run…I thought only Hollywood was allowed to do that! (4) The Yankees come from behind to win. Like I said, this game had it all.

My Schedule:  I was in a conference call this morning and I have a meeting at 3p…otherwise available.

My Market Watch:   Bonds Down – Pricing Worse Than Friday.  The Fannie Mae bond is down -62bps on the day and it just keeps getting uglier. I don’t even see anything in the news or reports that justify this sell-off.  And, it keeps falling…at this point a mid-day reprice for the worse is probable unless things turn around quickly.

Well, my prediction that pricing would bounce back this morning proved incorrect and the bond continues to be sold off by investors. The sell-off is no doubt the result of bond traders fearing the worst, a drop below a critical level (floor) of support. c27Once the bond dropped below the Lobby, traders kept selling while looking for some support below…the garage.  As it stands, I’m not exactly sure where the garage is…but it’s a least -50bps further down.

In the absence of economic data or geopolitical news to guide traders, they will use these floors of support to help them in deciding whether to buy or sell bonds. Think of it as a glass elevator…with the bond price as the elevator. When the bond elevator is going down, traders look to see what floor the elevator will stop on…they might buy when the elevator stops hoping it will go back up to higher floors and not continue down to the garage. If it stops and heads back up, traders will start buying bonds again and prices will recoup. But if the elevator continues going down, traders will dump bonds and prices will worsen. This is what we’re seeing right now….

My Disclaimer


Perspective.  30-Year Fixed Average Rates:  Past 40 years:  8.15%    Past 30 years:  7.45%    Past 20 years:  6.52%    Past 10 years:  5.72%

A word on locks.  Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension.  This is good smart business.


distinguish_yourselfDistinguish Yourself. In order to succeed in this business and in this market, you must find a way to distinguish yourself from other LOs. That is, if you are going to get more reliable referral sources, you must be able to clearly convey several compelling reasons why they should use you….My calendar is getting full – I am scheduling presentations to discuss (1) How to Be Successful In The Future Market, (2) Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and (3) How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs.  Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….

Again Daddy, Please! Bonds Down Alert

chihulyAgain Daddy, Please!  In Seattle we visited the Chihuly Glass Garden. It’s really cool and I recommend it. In fact, my 5-year old son liked it so much he sat through one of the informational movies and after we went through the whole place he begged to go through it again. Stunned by his incredible focus and continued interest we back-tracked the entire museum so he could see it again. How often does your kid fall in love with art?  We were quite pleased. I took this 15-second video of one of the glass sculptures.

My Schedule:  Available all day….

My Market Watch:   Bonds Down & Getting Worse – Pricing Better Than Yesterday Morning So Far…  The Fannie Mae bond is down -40bps on the day already. Since pricing came out this morning the bond has fallen and a mid-day reprice for the worse would not be difficult to predict.  Speaking of predictions, I predicted yesterday morning pricing would improve and it came true as Interbank issued two reprice improvements. But this morning we lost most of those gains and rates were published similar to yesterday morning…the exception is improved Arm pricing this morning from yesterday by +0.125.

c24I’ve been researching the market but can’t come up with any definitive reason bonds are selling off. I’ve seen no nasty or uplifting economic reports this morning. Housing starts and building permits were close to expectations. But the downturn in bond trading is concerning because we are nearing a critical floor of support. We certainly do not want to see it fall much lower or we could lose another -40bps or so. This would make pricing worse. I advise locking…at least that’s what I would tell my Mom. But do your own research and make your own decisions on whether to float or lock…my disclaimer is below….

My Disclaimer


Perspective.  30-Year Fixed Average Rates:  Past 40 years:  8.15%    Past 30 years:  7.45%    Past 20 years:  6.52%    Past 10 years:  5.72%

A word on locks.  Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension.  This is good smart business.


distinguish_yourselfDistinguish Yourself. In order to succeed in this business and in this market, you must find a way to distinguish yourself from other LOs. That is, if you are going to get more reliable referral sources, you must be able to clearly convey several compelling reasons why they should use you….My calendar is getting full – I am scheduling presentations to discuss (1) How to Be Successful In The Future Market, (2) Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and (3) How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs.  Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….

VOMIT, HO! GLACIER, HO!

alaska_tracy_arm_fjordVOMIT, HO! GLACIER, HO!  Quarantined. Yes, my 8-year old vomited on our second day at sea and ran a temperature of 102.7 that night. She was quarantined and therefore so was I. But a shot in the butt stopped the vomiting and the whole incident lasted but 24 hours. During the drama our cruise ship traveled up the Tracy Arm Fjord which is in Alaska near Juneau.  The imagery was so beautiful it’s hard to explain…peaceful and comforting. The glacier in the picture above was incredible to see…I had never seen one before other than in pictures. The boat got real close, in fact the closest in its history due to favorable weather and visibility.

I got the 8-year old to come outside and look at the glacier…I explained what a glacier is and how cool it was that we got to see it up close. Her response, “boring, can I go watch TV now?”  I resisted the impulse to knock her out and said, “go ahead.”  Argh.

My Schedule:  Available all day….

My Market Watch:   Bonds Getting Hammered – Pricing Significantly Worse. The Fannie Mae bond is down -56bps on the day already and pricing came out much worse. Stocks are down too. This is rare and the result of the Fed discussions about tapering QE earlier than later. This is a curious situation…the Fed is essentially determining if they should start tapering back QE sooner because of strong economic data. That is, if the economy is doing well, then tapering is justified.

Jobless claims fell meaning there were fewer people claiming they are out of work. Obviously if there are fewer people out of work this is a sign the economy is doing well. Whenever the economy is interpreted as performing well, bond traders typically invest in stocks and pull money out of bonds to do so. When that happens, bond prices fall and our rates/pricing worsen. Since stocks are not jumping on the news, I predict bond prices will bounce back. If I’m right, we should see some improvement in rates/pricing. I hope I’m right.  Please do your own research in determining whether to lock or float a rate lock.

My Disclaimer


Perspective.  30-Year Fixed Average Rates:  Past 40 years:  8.15%    Past 30 years:  7.45%    Past 20 years:  6.52%    Past 10 years:  5.72%

A word on locks.  Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension.  This is good smart business.


distinguish_yourselfDistinguish Yourself. In order to succeed in this business and in this market, you must find a way to distinguish yourself from other LOs. That is, if you are going to get more reliable referral sources, you must be able to clearly convey several compelling reasons why they should use you….My calendar is getting full – I am scheduling presentations to discuss (1) How to Be Successful In The Future Market, (2) Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and (3) How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs.  Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….

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