Phil Grossfield's Blog

A LITTLE EXTRA…

Monthly Archives: November 2013

Raised His Leg

pongo_penny2Raised His Leg   
My little Pongo who I rescued two months ago is growing up. Yep, for the first time he didn’t pee squatting down. He lifted his leg and relieved himself like a man, I mean, like a dog…he’s already growing out of his puppyhood.

Oh how the time flies…it brings tears to me eyes. It wasn’t long ago that he was peeing freely in the yard, tearing it up, stealing socks out of the laundry basket, biting at my nose and scratching at my face. But all those activities are being trained out of him…soon he’ll be fully trained. Now, if I could just get my kids on a similar

 

 


referral sources

I HIGHLY ADVISE you take advantage of this CRITICAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.  Rates are lower and are expected to stay low for a few months. Why?  Because we got a reprieve with a series of events leading up to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s reaffirmation of QE. My point is that this is a stay of execution on low rates…it’s temporary to be sure. So, you must get more referral sources NOW. Even if rates stay low this is solid strategy. But the way I see it, if you fail to take this opportunity to increase your referral sources, you will be SOL when QE finally tapers…and in my opinion it’s a long train a comin’.

monotonyI am astonished to see so many LOs ignoring these signs. They do not take steps to even try to get more referral sources. They don’t even take steps to clearly identify the ways in which they distinguish themselves from other LOs.  It’s almost like complete denial or they’ve already given up…I guess they are preparing for an exit from our industry. If you are offended by this email…then good…you probably need a kick in the pants. WHAT I FIND EXTRAORDINARY is that my highest producers are the ones asking for advice and working diligently to increase their already strong referral networks.  They probably know more than I do about marketing and promotion, but they sought my advice nonetheless…they are doing everything they can to prepare for war. I guess they will be here to stay and the others will fall by the wayside….

I am available to meet with you individually or as a group to discuss:

  1. How to Be Successful In The Future Market,
  2. Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and
  3. How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs.

If you get one little nugget out of my 1-hour presentation, and that nugget results in one loan, then your time spent with me was a good use of your time, no?  Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….


JOIN MY TEAM FOR CANCER RESEARCH!  All You Have To Do Is Not Shave! 

MOVEMBER.  Last year I grew a gnarly mustache. It was so thick you could barely see my face at all. I’m 46 and my Dad had, and beat, prostate cancer. This is why I don’t shave to support Movember…a charity for research aimed at men’s Cancer afflictions. If you’d like to join my team, click here. If you’d like to donate, even $5, click here. Thanks.  All you have to do is not shave!  

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FIND REFERRAL SOURCES…NOW

referral sources

I HIGHLY ADVISE you take advantage of this CRITICAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.  Rates are lower and are expected to stay low for a few months. Why?  Because we got a reprieve with a series of events leading up to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s reaffirmation of QE. My point is that this is a stay of execution on low rates…it’s temporary to be sure. So, you must get more referral sources NOW. Even if rates stay low this is solid strategy. But the way I see it, if you fail to take this opportunity to increase your referral sources, you will be SOL when QE finally tapers…and in my opinion it’s a long train a comin’.

monotonyI am astonished to see so many LOs ignoring these signs. They do not take steps to even try to get more referral sources. They don’t even take steps to clearly identify the ways in which they distinguish themselves from other LOs.  It’s almost like complete denial or they’ve already given up…I guess they are preparing for an exit from our industry. If you are offended by this email…then good…you probably need a kick in the pants. WHAT I FIND EXTRAORDINARY is that my highest producers are the ones asking for advice and working diligently to increase their already strong referral networks.  They probably know more than I do about marketing and promotion, but they sought my advice nonetheless…they are doing everything they can to prepare for war. I guess they will be here to stay and the others will fall by the wayside….

I am available to meet with you individually or as a group to discuss:

  1. How to Be Successful In The Future Market,
  2. Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and
  3. How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs.

If you get one little nugget out of my 1-hour presentation, and that nugget results in one loan, then your time spent with me was a good use of your time, no?  Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….


JOIN MY TEAM FOR CANCER RESEARCH!  All You Have To Do Is Not Shave! 

MOVEMBER.  Last year I grew a gnarly mustache. It was so thick you could barely see my face at all. I’m 46 and my Dad had, and beat, prostate cancer. This is why I don’t shave to support Movember…a charity for research aimed at men’s Cancer afflictions. If you’d like to join my team, click here. If you’d like to donate, even $5, click here. Thanks.  All you have to do is not shave!  

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BATKID SAVES CITY! MARKET MOTIVATION!

Gotham City For A Day.  It’s not San Francisco…it’s Gotham City, at least today it is. This is the dream of this little boy who has leukemia, specifically to be Batkid for a day. This morning the San Francisco Police Chief is expected to make an announcement that Batkid is desperately needed

gotham2


JanetYellen

Janet Yellen

My Market Watch:   Pricing Flat – Bonds Flat – READ ME! The 30-year bond is trading up +8bps on the day. But rates are about the same as yesterday as all gains were previously taken earlier in the week.

New Fed Chair Janet Yellen affirmed QE in her statement yesterday during her confirmation. This is GREAT NEWS if you’re a mortgage broker or banker, so be happy for the love of all things holy!

Quantitative Easing is the government’s monetary policy of spending billions on bonds in order to keep interest rates low and stimulate the economy. As long as bonds are being bought the price of bonds remains high and this has kept our mortgage rates artificially low for a long time.  Bernanke maintained this policy of QE for a long time, but he hinted that the Fed would begin to taper QE mid-year. “Tapering” means to back off, reduce, slow down…not eliminate. Nonetheless, the mere mention of tapering threw the bond market into a tailspin. Bernanke’s rationale for tapering QE was a stronger economy that could withstand a reduction in Fed bond purchases.

motivationBut just when we thought high rates were here to stay and would go higher yet, the weak economy showed its true colors. Poor economic reports emerged and then the government shut its doors. Despite the government getting back to work, the idea of QE Tapering got buried. But as quick as it can be dismissed, discussions of tapering find their way back to mainstream…it doesn’t take long for economists to start using tapering in their analysis once again….

ENTER NEW FED CHAIR JANET YELLEN. As expected she affirmed QE. Once again we can breathe easy, at least for the remainder of the year.

I HIGHLY ADVISE you take advantage of this window to get in front of as many referral sources as you possibly can. At the same time, get as many loans as you can, but if you fail to take this opportunity to increase your referral sources, you will be SOL when QE finally tapers…and it will eventually happen.


JOIN MY TEAM FOR CANCER RESEARCH!  All You Have To Do Is Not Shave! 

MOVEMBER.  Last year I grew a gnarly mustache. It was so thick you could barely see my face at all. I’m 46 and my Dad had, and beat, prostate cancer. This is why I don’t shave to support Movember…a charity for research aimed at men’s Cancer afflictions. If you’d like to join my team, click here. If you’d like to donate, even $5, click here. Thanks.  All you have to do is not shave!  

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Commencing Countdown Engines On

spaceoddity3Commencing Countdown Engines On…this is Major Tom to ground control….  I posted this yesterday but felt compelled to post it again after seeing an interview with astronaut Chris Hadfield on the Conan O’brien show last night. Hadfield recorded David Bowie’s Space Oddity WHILE IN SPACE ORBITING THE EARTH. Check it out…

His son encouraged him to do the song but the Colonel insisted some of the lyrics be changed, specifically, the part of the song where the astronaut dies. So, his son rewrote some of the lyrics to the satisfaction of his father and then put the audio and video together to make the YouTube video that has been viewed by nearly 19,000,000 people. Everything about this video is cool including the amazing and exhilarating imagery he shares from his window. In fact, this moved me so much I bought his book entitled An Astronaut’s Guide to Life on Earth.

spaceoddity2

spaceoddity1


JanetYellen

Janet Yellen

My Market Watch:   Pricing Improved – Bonds Up Again. The 30-year bond is trading better this morning and is now up +13bps on the day. This improves the price of the bond which in turn improves rates/pricing.  Interbank’s pricing improved again this morning.
The reason for the increase is probably due to Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing today and her comments that although QE cannot go on forever, there is no immedietate plan to decrease the amount of Fed bond buying. This is encouraging for bond traders and as a result Capital Markets feel confident in pricing aggressively. Take advantage of this time…get locks now!


JOIN MY TEAM FOR CANCER RESEARCH!  All You Have To Do Is Not Shave! 

MOVEMBER.  Last year I grew a gnarly mustache. It was so thick you could barely see my face at all. I’m 46 and my Dad had, and beat, prostate cancer. This is why I don’t shave to support Movember…a charity for research aimed at men’s Cancer afflictions. If you’d like to join my team, click here. If you’d like to donate, even $5, click here. Thanks.  All you have to do is not shave!  

movember2

Ground Control To Major Tom…

davidbowieGround Control To Major Tom… commencing countdown engines on….  You know the song, right?  David Bowie’s Space Oddity…I love that song.  Major Tom, otherwise known as astronaut Chris Hadfield recorded Space Oddity IN SPACE. This is some cool stuff…check it out by clicking the picture below.

 

Major Tom


My Market Watch:   Pricing Improved – Bonds Up.  

The 30-year bond is trading better this morning and is now up +38bps on the day. This improves the price of the bond which in turn improves rates/pricing. Interbank’s pricing improved 0.250-0.375 in some coupons.

The reason for the increase is probably due to Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing tomorrow, and (2) because an inflation report came in no better or worse than last month. FYI, Bonds hate inflation so anytime inflation is increasing bonds get sold off. There is a 10-year treasury note auction this afternoon that might rock things a bit so I’ll keep you posted….


JOIN MY TEAM FOR CANCER RESEARCH!  All You Have To Do Is Not Shave! 

MOVEMBER.  Last year I grew a gnarly mustache. It was so thick you could barely see my face at all. I’m 46 and my Dad had, and beat, prostate cancer. This is why I don’t shave to support Movember…a charity for research aimed at men’s Cancer afflictions. If you’d like to join my team, click here. If you’d like to donate, even $5, click here. Thanks.  All you have to do is not shave!  

movember2

Teaching the Meaning of Veteran’s Day

veteransdayTeaching The Meaning of Veteran’s Day 

Explaining Veteran’s Day to young children can be a little tricky. I guess I insulate my kids from much of the tragedies in everyday life, i.e., I don’t let them watch the news, can you dig it?  I think my explanation was something like, “well, those who serve in the military, like your Uncle Mike, protect our country and ensure our freedom.”

eagleflag2But that’s a bit weak, don’t you think? They know there are bad people in the world…our adopted puppy who was abused and mutilated is a lesson on that front. But the concept of war and true sacrifice to those that served is outside their understanding. So, beyond a one or two sentence explanation of Veteran’s Day, one of my wife’s travel writers offers some ways to teach kids remembrance through travel, and at home. I like this story because it’s respectful and helpful…check it out:  Teach Kids the Meaning of Veterans Day and Remembrance through Travel and at Home


My Market Watch:  Pricing Worse – Bonds Flat to Up.  Despite a flat 30-year bond price this morning Interbank’s pricing dropped 2 day’s in a row. I haven’t done a price comparison yet but this is not that surprising to me. Interbank tends to be conservative when the market has large fluctuations. Simply put, we back off our normal aggressive strategy for a few days.


JOIN MY TEAM FOR CANCER RESEARCH!  All You Have To Do Is Not Shave! 

MOVEMBER.  Last year I grew a gnarly mustache. It was so thick you could barely see my face at all. I’m 46 and my Dad had, and beat, prostate cancer. This is why I don’t shave to support Movember…a charity for research aimed at men’s Cancer afflictions. If you’d like to join my team, click here. If you’d like to donate, even $5, click here. Thanks.  All you have to do is not shave!  

Movember is a fundraiser for research in battling male Cancer afflictions.

movember2

Women’s Image? Job’s Report Tomorrow

beauty1Women’s Image?  I freak out when I see things like this…a women’s image distorted in such a significant way. My daughter is a beautiful 8-year old girl and I don’t want consumerism teaching her how she should look. I’ve written about this on a few occasions. Click the picture to the left and then read my post here:  No Cinderella For You!


My Market Watch:   Pricing Improved – Bonds Up. Jobs Report Friday
Tomorrow

The Fannie Mae 30-year bond is up +12bps on the day but lost a little momentum from earlier. Fixed rates improved slightly and the Jumbo pricing has improved significantly.

jobsreport2Tomorrow is the Jobs Report and there is speculation on the results. From what I read the expectation is about 100,000 new jobs created in October. However, the actual number reported is not that important as it impacts rates. Rather, its the difference between what is expected and reported that makes the impact.

  • When traders buy bonds our rates/pricing improve.
  • Traders buy bonds when they feel the economy is weak because they don’t want to invest in stocks. In fact, they will pull money out of stocks to invest in bonds in response to weak economic data.
  • The Job’s Report tells us how many new jobs were created in October.
  • If there are less new jobs than expected, then traders interpret the news as a weak economy. Less new jobs = weaker economy.
    If there are more new jobs than expected, then traders interpret the news as a strong economy. More new jobs = stronger economy.

The expected number of new jobs to be reported is only 100,000…that is a very low number, lower by about 50,000 on average. So, my brain tells me that it’s unlikely the actual reported number will come in less than that. If anything, it will probably come out stronger. So, for my money, I’d error on the side of locking in case the actual reported number comes in higher than 100,000.  I hope that made sense. Let me know if you have any comments or questions…..


JOIN MY TEAM FOR CANCER RESEARCH!  All You Have To Do Is Not Shave! 

MOVEMBER.  Last year I grew a gnarly mustache. It was so thick you could barely see my face at all. I’m 46 and my Dad had, and beat, prostate cancer. This is why I don’t shave to support Movember…a charity for research aimed at men’s Cancer afflictions. If you’d like to join my team, click here. If you’d like to donate, even $5, click here. Thanks.  All you have to do is not shave!  

Movember is a fundraiser for research in battling male Cancer afflictions.

movember2

San Diego Gaslamp Brothels; Jobs Report Friday

brothel

San Diego Gaslmap Brothels.  I had no idea there were so many brothels in San Diego…in the past that is. Last weekend my wife and I went on a San Diego Tasting Tour, compliments of my in-laws’ generosity. When they bought us the gift certificate, I don’t think they knew it was a Brothels, Bites and Booze tour.

marbleroomI had no idea San Diego was such a rough and wild town in the olden days…but it was! In fact, it was a downright red-light district, a mecca of brothels, and some remain today. Not in the traditional sense though…now they are home to modern-day brothels like The Marble Room. This place used to be the real deal but now it is a restaurant and saloon. Madame Cora apparently used marbles instead of currency in an effort to bypass legal issues…supposedly this is where you would lose your marbles, if you get my drift.

wyattearpEven the notorious Wyatt Earp lived here and had a gambling hall next door…now there is a restaurant in his name. Our tour guide was awesome…she explained how the city was built and developed as we strolled through town checking out the old buildings and their stories. However, one story in particular sticks in my craw. She said pirates would comb through downtown San Diego looking for drunkards. They’d spot you, follow you, and wait until you were passed out. When you awoke you’d find yourself in a cellar, shackled and gagged, ready for your new job as a slave on their outbound ship in the harbor…bon voyage!

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My Market Watch:   Pricing Improved – Bonds Up. Jobs Report Friday

The Fannie Mae 30-year bond is up +19bps on the day and fixed rates improved to the beginning of yesterday before the price worsening. The Jumbo Non-Conforming pricing has not been affected and remains strong.
c34Friday is the Jobs Report which always has a way of impacting the market in a significant way. I’m holding off on any insight at this time…tomorrow I’ll give you my thoughts. However, the more pressing story is where the bond is currently trading which is below the 200-day moving average. As I said at the end of last week, unless we have an economic report to push the bond higher, the trading will continue below which isn’t favorable for our rates/pricing. The Jobs Report would have to be quite weak to give us the boost we’re looking for. That is, if the Jobs Report shows less new jobs in the economy than expected, then traders will put their money into bonds and rates/pricing will likely improve. Tomorrow I’ll provide insight into the best guess on that issue….


JOIN MY TEAM FOR CANCER RESEARCH!  All You Have To Do Is Not Shave! 

MOVEMBER.  Last year I grew a gnarly mustache. It was so thick you could barely see my face at all. I’m 46 and my Dad had, and beat, prostate cancer. This is why I don’t shave to support Movember…a charity for research aimed at men’s Cancer afflictions. If you’d like to join my team, click here. If you’d like to donate, even $5, click here. Thanks.  All you have to do is not shave!  

Movember is a fundraiser for research in battling male Cancer afflictions.

movember2

Market Wrap – Explanation of Moving Averages – Floors & Ceilings

My Market Wrap:   BONDS FALL BELOW 200-DAY FLOOR  I find this significant…let me explain…

We had a nice run of bond trading above the 200-day moving average floor, but today the trading closed below the floor. If you use my Glass Elevator analogy, the 200-day moving average is no longer a floor…it has become a ceiling.

Moving Averages are simply lines on a graph that give traders information on where the bond has traded over time. The 200-day moving average is the one we’re looking at now.

c34LAST WEEK, when the bond was trading above the 200-day moving average, it acted as a floor of support. Why? Because as bonds were being sold off, the price would fall towards the floor and then traders would start buying and the price would go up…the floor acted as support for bond prices…it kept bond prices from falling too low.

TODAY, the trading fell below the floor. Now the bond is trading underneath and as a result the 200-day moving average has become a ceiling…it now acts against us…it’s now a ceiling of resistance.  Now traders look to the line as a reason to sell, not to buy. I hope that’s not too confusing.  If this doesn’t make sense to you then call me…I would be happy to explain it.  Like most things, it’s not a difficult concept to understand, but it is something you have to learn…it’s not intuitive. Let me know if you have questions…

So, now that the bond is trading below the floor, I expect rates/pricing to open next week lower, unless of course there is some economic report or other geopolitical news that influences traders to buy bonds. If I’m right, pricing should be worse at the beginning of the week…


JOIN MY TEAM FOR CANCER RESEARCH!  All You Have To Do Is Not Shave! 

Last year I grew a gnarly mustache and beard. It was so thick you could barely see my face at all. When you think MAN, think Phil. Below I explain why I decided to grow my mo for cancer research last year.  This year my buddy Mathew and I started a team…JOIN US.  All you have to do is not shave!  

Movember is a fundraiser for research in battling male Cancer afflictions.

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