My Market Watch: The 30-year bond traded up and down today. This morning it was down and I was concerned we might have a price worsening. Then around noon it ticked up over +12bps and I thought we might see a price improvement. Bottom line is nobody knows what’s going to happen tomorrow with the Jobs Report but I think there will be some movement.
Remember, you can lock online until 9:45p…rates below are good until then. After that, you’re on tomorrow’s rates.
The expected number to be reported in the Jobs Report is 160,000 new jobs. Traders will decide how to spend tomorrow based on how many new jobs are reported above or below expectations of 160,000. If the report comes in at 160,000 new jobs as expected, then the movement in the market should be minimal. But if the number comes in at say 200,000, then traders will interpret that as a strong economy…more new jobs than expected equals a healthier economy, right? In that case traders will invest in stocks and likely pull money out of bonds and when that happens rates/pricing worsen. On the other hand, if the Jobs Report comes in low, say only 120,000 new jobs, then traders will interpret the economy is worse than thought and they will historically sell off stocks and use the money to buy bonds instead. When that happens rates/pricing improve.
The reason bonds were trading up and down today is because of uncertainty…some were buying bonds in anticipation of a weak jobs report which drove the price of bonds up…then maybe sold off for a quick profit….but there is no way to know. So, if you’re thinking about locking tonight in front of the Jobs Report, you have until 9:45p to do so…after that I wish you the best. For my money, I’d lock. Based on what I’m reading and based on the way things have gone lately I just feel there is more downside than upside. Whatever you do, be sure to make decisions on whether to float or lock based on YOUR OWN RESEARCH. My Disclaimer
If you know what’s going to happen tomorrow please let me know and after its over we can join Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd on the beach. Feeling Good Louis!
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My Schedule…and A Little Extra: 
trading between S1 and R1. S1 is a floor of support and R1 is a ceiling of resistance. Traders expect the bond to trade in-between these moving averages. If the bond trades above R1, then traders look for the next ceiling, R2, for guidance. Similar, if the bond trades below S1, then traders look to the next floor, S2, for guidance. I hope this isn’t getting too technical.
My Schedule…and A Little Extra: Planning birthday parties is challenging and time-consuming…this is what I’ve learned as I watch my wife plan the birthday parties for my soon to be 5-year old son and 8-year old daughter. I have also come to learn that they are expensive…ugh. 
My Schedule…and A Little Extra: Today is a call of action: do one random act of kindness today. It can be anything…open a door for someone; offer to help someone with something, anything; make a charitable donation; say something kind to someone; make someone smile, apologize for something you’ve done…do something, anything, no matter how small or big a gesture…some random act of kindness. Now watch this: 
My Schedule…and A Little Extra: “He’s a liar, a cheater, a blanking cheater…he should give up all his money and achievements!” I said. She said, “but everyone was doing it.” I responded, “How is that possibly an excuse…if our daughter or son used that excuse what would you say?” Her reply, “I would tell them to make a better choice next time.” And so it went back and forth. “All his achievements were based on a lie…and then he flat out lied to his family, to his fans, to the world. He stood for perseverance, bravery, integrity…all destroyed. And what about those people he bullied to protect his brand…he sued people to protect his lie…how do you defend that?” She paused, took a deep breath, and then said, “despite his transgressions, he still fought cancer, he still fought depression, he still fought fatigue, he still fought to live life. He competed, he trained…he did not give up, and through it all he gave people hope, people facing the gravest of circumstances…he gave them someone to look up to. And he gave back, with his foundation amongst other charitable contributions. I’m not saying what he did was okay…it was wrong and he had to live each day knowing it…which is why he finally decided to come clean. His life is very different now…he will pay for what he’s done…I suspect he will see his fair share of litigation not to mention the permanent damage to his reputation. His brand means a very different thing than it did…but I forgive him and appreciate the good things he did for people.” She’s good isn’t she…always finds the good in others…either that or she is delusional because of his good looks and his crazy mesmerizing eyes. “Well, I’ll forgive him, thanks to your assessment of the good he did for so many people. But I looked up to him…I believed in him and I believed him when he denied everything…he hurt me and I won’t forget it. I’ll tell you one thing, he’d better dedicate the rest of his life to helping others…that will hopefully be his true legacy…” She smiled.
My Schedule…and A Little Extra: Gloriously oblivious. We watched Martin Luther King’s I have a Dream speech with the kids Saturday morning. “What is he talking about?” asked the 7-year old. I tried to explain, “you see honey, there was a time when people weren’t treated equally, in fact, people still aren’t treated equally, and Martin Luther King stood up for those people and motivated all the people you see on the computer and people all around the country to stand up for people who were not being treated fairly.” Not bad, eh? “Why weren’t they being treated equally Daddy?” I stammered on this one…my wife looked at me puzzled as well. How do you tell a 7-year old girl, whose concept of bigotry and baseless hatred is as foreign as the workings of the Large Hadron Collider? How do I explain to a girl whose second grade class is made up of 20+ different cultures that there was a time when we enslaved people based on the color of their skin? More importantly, do I want to explain it? My wife tried and stuttered an explanation to no avail…my daughter didn’t get it, and that’s just fine by me. Gloriously oblivious.
My Schedule…and A Little Extra: Watch out…I’m packin’ a gorilla! The debate on gun laws has become epidemic and that is a good thing because I’m of the opinion that something needs to be done. I’m not saying we should eliminate our constitutional rights, but let’s face it…the founders were working with muskets…not modern day military grade assault weapons. I know I might be touching a nerve with some readers, but most gun owners I believe agree that there needs to be more restrictions. It’s like the hunter versus the grocery store buyer…the hunter has more respect for the animal it hunts than the person absent-mindedly buying meat in the store. I’m open to discussion on this one. In the meantime, check this article published by The Onion (my college newspaper): 
My Schedule…and A Little Extra: I struck a nerve with several readers yesterday when I posted my 
My Schedule…and A Little Extra: “Live for today!” (emphasis on today)…that’s what my Dad told me yesterday. “I’m telling ya Phil, life goes by fast…real fast…don’t worry about everything…just live your best life.” He’s feeling it…80-years old and dealing with some issues, like most if not all 80-year olds. We hear this all the time, right? Before you know it life will be in the rear view mirror. But this time it resonated a little more than usual…not sure why. Is it the possibility of a camping out experience in freezing weather? Definitely not. Is it because I’m 45 years old and in the mid-life-thought-process change (I don’t like calling it a mid-life crisis)? Maybe. Is it because it scared me to hear my Dad talk about the end of life? That might be it. I can’t get his voice out of my head. Dad has and continues to be a powerful force in my life. His most intoxicating asset has always been his positive attitude, which used to be my best asset too before the mortgage industry’s onslaught. I want that feeling back…the feeling of untarnished confidence…the feeling of organic honest positivity. I think I’m going through a shift…and that’s a good thing….
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