Phil Grossfield's Blog

A LITTLE EXTRA…

Monthly Archives: January 2013

Feeling Good Louis – Jobs Report Tomorrow 2

tradingplaces2My Market Watch:  The 30-year bond traded up and down today.  This morning it was down and I was concerned we might have a price worsening.  Then around noon it ticked up over +12bps and I thought we might see a price improvement.  Bottom line is nobody knows what’s going to happen tomorrow with the Jobs Report but I think there will be some movement.

Remember, you can lock online until 9:45p…rates below are good until then.  After that, you’re on tomorrow’s rates.

The expected number to be reported in the Jobs Report is 160,000 new jobs.  Traders will decide how to spend tomorrow based on how many new jobs are reported above or below expectations of 160,000.  If the report comes in at 160,000 new jobs as expected, then the movement in the market should be minimal.  But if the number comes in at say 200,000, then traders will interpret that as a strong economy…more new jobs than expected equals a healthier economy, right?  In that case traders will invest in stocks and likely pull money out of bonds and when that happens rates/pricing worsen.  On the other hand, if the Jobs Report comes in low, say only 120,000 new jobs, then traders will interpret the economy is worse than thought and they will historically sell off stocks and use the money to buy bonds instead.  When that happens rates/pricing improve.

The reason bonds were trading up and down today is because of uncertainty…some were buying bonds in anticipation of a weak jobs report which drove the price of bonds up…then maybe sold off for a quick profit….but there is no way to know.  So, if you’re thinking about locking tonight in front of the Jobs Report, you have until 9:45p to do so…after that I wish you the best.  For my money, I’d lock.  Based on what I’m reading and based on the way things have gone lately I just feel there is more downside than upside.  Whatever you do, be sure to make decisions on whether to float or lock based on YOUR OWN RESEARCH.  My Disclaimer

If you know what’s going to happen tomorrow please let me know and after its over we can join Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd on the beach.  Feeling Good Louis!   

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Feeling Good Louis! Jobs Report Tomorrow

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   Last day of the month!  I am available all day except I have to go get my credit card that I left in a beer house the other day and I need to grab some dog food before she eats the legs on the tables.  |||  In case you missed it from yesterday:  Do you think your Real Estate Agents would find this interesting?  NAR with Google wrote a report on how people research home buying.  The Digital House Hunt reports/discusses:  90% of home buyers searched online during their home buying process; Real estate related searches on Google.com grew 253% over the past four years; YouTube is the top video research destination for home buyers, etc.

My Fun Stuff:  Where The Hell Is Matt?  In 2012   In 2008  |||  All My Fun Stuff

tradingplaces

My Market Watch:  Rates/Pricing is the same as yesterday after a price improvement.  I hope you read my email yesterday and I hope you saw my warning about bonds improving and I hope you waited to lock to take advantage of my predicted mid-day rate change for the better.  Today the bond is already trading negatively from the onset…it’s currently down -9bps since yesterday’s close.  That said, Cap Markets published rates/pricing the same as last night after the price improvement.  That tells me they are probably watching closely to see if there is another down-tick on the horizon…if the bond slips even a little bit more, they might be inclined to protect themselves and issue a rate change for the worse.  Of course, who knows what’s going to happen in the next few hours, but if things deteriorate even slightly, I be they’ll act quickly.  |||  Changing the topic to the Jobs Report, which comes out in the morning, the expected number is around 160,000 new jobs.  Traders will decide how to spend tomorrow based on how many new jobs are reported above or below expectations of 160,000.  So, if the number comes in at say 200,000, then traders will interpret that as a strong economy…more new jobs equals a  healthier economy, right?  In that case traders will invest in stocks and likely pull money out of bonds and when that happens rates/pricing worsen.  On the other hand, if the Jobs Report comes in low, say at 120,000, then traders will interpret the economy is worse than thought and they will historically sell off stocks and use the money to buy bonds instead.  When that happens rates/pricing improve.  So, what the heck is going to happen tomorrow?  If you know the answer please let me know and after its over we can join Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd on the beach.  Feeling Good Louis!   My Disclaimer

My Recent Posts:   Where The Hell Is Matt? Tracking Bonds  |  Kids Birthday Parties; Volatile Bond Market  Random Act of Kindness  Lance Armstrong – A Discussion…  |  MLK Gloriously Oblivious  Watch Out…I’m Packin’ A Gorilla!  |||  All My Previous Posts

My Important Reminders:

  • LIMITED CONDO REVIEWS.  We can no longer accept limited reviews filled out by the LO and they need to be filled out by the HOA or Management Company…this is an investor requirement and is effective immediately.
  • UW CHANGE.  Beginning with applications dated on or after 1/21/13, UWs will ask for 2012 W2s for salaried borrowers.  In the event the borrower has not yet received the W2, the condition will be added to the Approval and it must be furnished prior to closing.
  • APPOINTMENTS.  I am setting up appointments for the next several weeks…please let me know if you’re interested in an office visit.  I will be sharing my insight on how to get new business in 2013 and what to prepare for as the year progresses….
  • STILL WANTED.  We are looking for Senior Underwriters, Loan Coordinators, Junior UWs, Doc Specialists and Funders. Referrals are greatly appreciated.  Remote positions are available.

Where The Hell Is Matt? Tracking Bonds

wheremattMy Schedule…and A Little Extra:   WHERE THE HELL IS MATT?  I love this guy…been following him for years now.  Basically he travels all over the place and takes video of dancing with people from all over the world.  Its infectious and he has made a living out of it.  His videos on YouTube are seen by millions and when you watch you’ll see why.  It’s a nice message and for some reason it resonates with people, including me.  2008:  Where the Hell is Matt? and 2012:  Where the Hell is Matt?  |||  LIMITED CONDO REVIEWS:  Please be advised, for all new submissions a condo cert must be filled out and signed by the HOA, even for a limited review.  This does not affect loans submitted prior to 1/21/13.  SALARIED 2012 W2s:  Beginning with applications dated on or after 1/21/13, UWs will ask for 2012 W2s for salaried borrowers.  In the event the borrower has not yet received the W2, the condition will be added to the Approval and it must be furnished prior to closing.  |||  APPOINTMENTS:  I am setting up appointments for the next several weeks…please let me know if you’re interested in an office visit.  I will be sharing my insight on how to get new business in 2013 and what to prepare for as the year progresses….

My Schedule:  I have one meeting today at 10:00a and otherwise available all day….

My Market Watch:  I received many questions and comments from yesterday’s post about market movement and the volatility of bonds.  So, this is an attempt to explain further.  In the graphic you can see that the 30-year Fannie Mae bond is candlestrading between S1 and R1.  S1 is a floor of support and R1 is a ceiling of resistance.  Traders expect the bond to trade in-between these moving averages.  If the bond trades above R1, then traders look for the next ceiling, R2, for guidance.  Similar, if the bond trades below S1, then traders look to the next floor, S2, for guidance.  I hope this isn’t getting too technical.

Right now, the bond is trading just above the S1 floor of support…if it falls through the floor, then traders will continue to sell and you can expect it to slow down when it reaches S2.  Notice this is what happened yesterday…the bond sold all the way down to S2 and then bounced off the floor and started trading up again.  That’s why we saw pricing get worse and then improve again.  When bonds sell off (go down) then pricing/rates worsen.  If the bond is being bought (goes up) then rates/pricing improves.  Does that make sense?  Let me know if you have any questions, okay?   My Disclaimer

Kids Birthday Parties; Volatile Bond Market

kidsbdayMy Schedule…and A Little Extra:   Planning birthday parties is challenging and time-consuming…this is what I’ve learned as I watch my wife plan the birthday parties for my soon to be 5-year old son and 8-year old daughter.  I have also come to learn that they are expensive…ugh.  |||  Friday’s call of action:  do one random act of kindness today.  It can be anything…open a door for someone; offer to help someone with something, anything; make a charitable donation; say something kind to someone; make someone smile, apologize for something you’ve done…do something, anything, no matter how small or big a gesture…some random act of kindness.  Now watch this:  Mr. Rogers Remix

My Schedule:  I have one meeting today at 1:30p and otherwise available until 4:30p….

My Market Watch:  This is a scary time for bonds and as such, rates/pricing are very volatile right now…let me explain.  First, there is usually an inverse relationship between stocks and bonds…if traders buy stocks, then they sell off bonds to free up money, and vice versa.  If they sell off bonds then rates/pricing typically worsen.  Okay, with that basic understanding, one of the indicators traders look to is moving averages, that is, how high and low has the bond traded in comparison with trends.  There are floors and ceilings associated with the moving averages.  For example, right now the bond is trading near a floor and traders are watching closely…if the trading bounces off the floor and improves, then rates/pricing should stabilize.  But if the trading falls below the floor, then traders will continue to sell off bonds until the next floor gives them some guidance.  THIS IS THE SCARY PART.  So, let’s hope the bond trading bounces off the moving average floor it is dancing on right now because if it falls through, then watch out below!  I hope this makes sense…let me know if you want more discussion…. My Disclaimer

Random Act of Kindness

stevejobs2My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   Today is a call of action:  do one random act of kindness today.  It can be anything…open a door for someone; offer to help someone with something, anything; make a charitable donation; say something kind to someone; make someone smile, apologize for something you’ve done…do something, anything, no matter how small or big a gesture…some random act of kindness.  Now watch this:  Mr. Rogers Remix

My Schedule:  I have one meeting today at noon and otherwise available….

My Market Watch:  Rates are worse today, again, and they are still falling now down near 10bps since rates were published this morning.  It started on Wednesday when the House passed the extension of the U.S. debt limit to May, and then strong economic reports today from big companies such as P&G and positive world economic news from across seas.  The 30-year bond was trading -40bps lower and as I type is dropping another -16bps…as a result, pricing is much worse.  Lately I have had many questions about what I follow to determine what’s happening in the market…usually the question is what is going on with the 10-year note?  I do not follow the 10-year note as I have concluded it is less reliable than the 30-year bond.  Simply, the 30-year bond is a direct indicator of what is happening in the market.  If the bond is being bought, prices improve and if it’s being sold off, prices worsen.  It’s that simple.  All the other indicators are indirect and in my opinion less reliable.  To see the changes in the bond I subscribe to The Mortgage Market Guide.  I also read Bloomberg and subscribe to Rob Chrisman’s daily email, although he is a little over my head at times. Let me know if you have any questions, okay?   My Disclaimer

My Important Reminders:

  • LIMITED CONDO REVIEWS.  We can no longer accept limited reviews filled out by the LO and they need to be filled out by the HOA or Management Company…this is an investor requirement and is effective immediately.
  • UW CHANGE.  Beginning with applications dated on or after 1/21/13, UWs will ask for 2012 W2s for salaried borrowers.  In the event the borrower has not yet received the W2, the condition will be added to the Approval and it must be furnished prior to closing.
  • APPOINTMENTS.  I am setting up appointments for the next several weeks…please let me know if you’re interested in an office visit.  I will be sharing my insight on how to get new business in 2013 and what to prepare for as the year progresses….
  • STILL WANTED.  We are looking for Senior Underwriters, Loan Coordinators, Junior UWs, Doc Specialists and Funders. Referrals are greatly appreciated.  Remote positions are available.

Lance Armstrong – A Discussion…

lanceMy Schedule…and A Little Extra:  “He’s a liar, a cheater, a blanking cheater…he should give up all his money and achievements!” I said.  She said, “but everyone was doing it.”  I responded, “How is that possibly an excuse…if our daughter or son used that excuse what would you say?”  Her reply, “I would tell them to make a better choice next time.”  And so it went back and forth.  “All his achievements were based on a lie…and then he flat out lied to his family, to his fans, to the world.  He stood for perseverance, bravery, integrity…all destroyed. And what about those people he bullied to protect his brand…he sued people to protect his lie…how do you defend that?”  She paused, took a deep breath, and then said, “despite his transgressions, he still fought cancer, he still fought depression, he still fought fatigue, he still fought to live life.  He competed, he trained…he did not give up, and through it all he gave people hope, people facing the gravest of circumstances…he gave them someone to look up to. And he gave back, with his foundation amongst other charitable contributions.  I’m not saying what he did was okay…it was wrong and he had to live each day knowing it…which is why he finally decided to come clean.  His life is very different now…he will pay for what he’s done…I suspect he will see his fair share of litigation not to mention the permanent damage to his reputation.  His brand means a very different thing than it did…but I forgive him and appreciate the good things he did for people.”  She’s good isn’t she…always finds the good in others…either that or she is delusional because of his good looks and his crazy mesmerizing eyes.  “Well, I’ll forgive him, thanks to your assessment of the good he did for so many people.  But I looked up to him…I believed in him and I believed him when he denied everything…he hurt me and I won’t forget it.  I’ll tell you one thing, he’d better dedicate the rest of his life to helping others…that will hopefully be his true legacy…”  She smiled.

My Schedule:  I have two meetings today, one at noon and one at 3p in Irvine…please be patient with replies….  APPOINTMENTS.  I am setting up appointments for the next several weeks…please let me know if you’re interested in an office visit.  I will be sharing my insight on how to get new business in 2013 and what to prepare for as the year progresses….

My Market Watch:  Rates are better today and the market is flat otherwise thus far.  Not much to report today….  My Disclaimer

My Important Reminders:

  • UW CHANGE.  Beginning with applications dated on or after 1/21/13, UWs will ask for 2012 W2s for salaried borrowers.  In the event the borrower has not yet received the W2, the condition will be added to the Approval and it must be furnished prior to closing.
  • STILL WANTED.  We are looking for Senior Underwriters, Loan Coordinators, Junior UWs, Doc Specialists and Funders. Referrals are greatly appreciated.  Remote positions are available.

MLK Gloriously Oblivious

MLKMy Schedule…and A Little Extra: Gloriously oblivious. We watched Martin Luther King’s I have a Dream speech with the kids Saturday morning. “What is he talking about?” asked the 7-year old. I tried to explain, “you see honey, there was a time when people weren’t treated equally, in fact, people still aren’t treated equally, and Martin Luther King stood up for those people and motivated all the people you see on the computer and people all around the country to stand up for people who were not being treated fairly.” Not bad, eh? “Why weren’t they being treated equally Daddy?” I stammered on this one…my wife looked at me puzzled as well. How do you tell a 7-year old girl, whose concept of bigotry and baseless hatred is as foreign as the workings of the Large Hadron Collider? How do I explain to a girl whose second grade class is made up of 20+ different cultures that there was a time when we enslaved people based on the color of their skin? More importantly, do I want to explain it? My wife tried and stuttered an explanation to no avail…my daughter didn’t get it, and that’s just fine by me. Gloriously oblivious.

I have a dream that little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.

My Schedule: Available all day…. APPOINTMENTS. I am setting up appointments for the next several weeks…please let me know if you’re interested in an office visit. I will be sharing my insight on how to get new business in 2013 and what to prepare for as the year progresses….

My Market Watch: Markets closed…rates from Friday remain. My Disclaimer

My Important Reminders:

  1. 1. STILL WANTED. We are looking for Senior Underwriters, Loan Coordinators, Junior UWs, Doc Specialists and Funders. Referrals are greatly appreciated. Remote positions are available.
  2. 2. UW CHANGE. Beginning with applications dated on or after 1/21/13, UWs will ask for 2012 W2s for salaried borrowers. In the event the borrower has not yet received the W2, the condition will be added to the Approval and it must be furnished prior to closing.
  3. FANNIE CHANGE. We are requiring evidence of funds for the payment of 30-day charge accounts even though we are not requiring payoff of the account…this is a change with FNMA 9.0 DU. If a borrower has a 30-day account, such as Amex or a utility bill that appears on his credit report, DU will require a document to show the borrower has funds to pay that account. Even if the borrower is getting cash out we still are requiring evidence he has funds due to the 30-day charge appearing. In other words, we cannot use cashout proceeds to offset the account unless we require the account to be closed. The DU Findings should spell all this out. Read your DU carefully…your loan will fly through if you have accounted for every DU message such as funds to close, W2s, bank statements, etc. Our Underwriters are required to make sure we have answered every DU command/message before approving a loan.
  4. STREETLINK PRICING INCREASE. Streetlinks raised their pricing…click here to learn how to see their new prices.

Watch Out…I’m Packin’ A Gorilla!

gorillasMy Schedule…and A Little Extra:  Watch out…I’m packin’ a gorilla!  The debate on gun laws has become epidemic and that is a good thing because I’m of the opinion that something needs to be done.  I’m not saying we should eliminate our constitutional rights, but let’s face it…the founders were working with muskets…not modern day military grade assault weapons.  I know I might be touching a nerve with some readers, but most gun owners I believe agree that there needs to be more restrictions.  It’s like the hunter versus the grocery store buyer…the hunter has more respect for the animal it hunts than the person absent-mindedly buying meat in the store.  I’m open to discussion on this one.  In the meantime, check this article published by The Onion (my college newspaper):  Gorilla Sales Skyrocket After Latest Gorilla Attack.

My Schedule:  Available all day…until happy hour and at this point I’m not sure what time happy hour starts….  APPOINTMENTS.  I am setting up appointments for the next several weeks…please let me know if you’re interested in an office visit.  I will be sharing my insight on how to get new business in 2013 and what to prepare for as the year progresses….

My Market Watch:  The market is flat thus far.  Bonds were trading higher this morning but not by much and not enough at this point to get back the worsening from yesterday.  I’ll keep my eyes on things as should you going into a long weekend.  Remember, you can lock over the long weekend so if rates do not move today you might want to consider locking on Monday…you still get today’s rates and pick up 3 calendar days on your lock term.  Let me know if you have any questions, okay?  My Disclaimer

My Important Reminders:

  1. STILL WANTED.  We are looking for Senior Underwriters, Loan Coordinators, Junior UWs, Doc Specialists and Funders. Referrals are greatly appreciated.  Remote positions are available.
  2. UW CHANGE.  Beginning with applications dated on or after 1/21/13, UWs will ask for 2012 W2s for salaried borrowers.  In the event the borrower has not yet received the W2, the condition will be added to the Approval and it must be furnished prior to closing.
  3. FANNIE CHANGE.  We are requiring evidence of funds for the payment of 30-day charge accounts even though we are not requiring payoff of the account…this is a change with FNMA 9.0 DU.  If a borrower has a 30-day account, such as Amex or a utility bill that appears on his credit report, DU will require a document to show the borrower has funds to pay that account.  Even if the borrower is getting cash out we still are requiring evidence he has funds due to the 30-day charge appearing.  In other words, we cannot use cashout proceeds to offset the account unless we require the account to be closed.  The DU Findings should spell all this out.  Read your DU carefully…your loan will fly through if you have accounted for every DU message such as funds to close, W2s, bank statements, etc.  Our Underwriters are required to make sure we have answered every DU command/message before approving a loan.
  4. STREETLINK PRICING INCREASE.  Streetlinks raised their pricing…click here to learn how to see their new prices.

I’m Not Alone

icefishingMy Schedule…and A Little Extra:  I struck a nerve with several readers yesterday when I posted my Live For Today post.  It’s flattering to have so many positive comments about the things I write.  Sometimes I wonder if this is the right medium for my posts where I reveal personal feelings.  But comments like yesterday vindicate my openness.  My sister told me she adores me.  My wife complimented me but challenged my use of the word “intoxicating”…she’s a real writer. 🙂   One reader commented on my story about the Joshua Tree Brave The Weather? post…it triggered memories of taking his 11-year old son (whom he did not get to spend a lot of time with) ice fishing in a winter storm where everyone thought they were crazy.  They ended up catching the maximum allowed and it has become legendary in their family and one of his, and his son’s, fondest memories.  Below is a comment from a reader on my Live For Today post I thought I’d share:

Your comments today really spoke to me and I am sure many others. I think your Dad  has it right about live for today because today is all we really have. As we get older we do lose our childlike approach to life.  The key is to think like that again and find gratitude for each day. I too miss the untarnished confidence I once had for this industry and appreciate you being so open about your feelings. We’re not alone J and I know it is all just a perspective adjustment.

Thank you for your comments…it feels good knowing I’m not alone….

My Schedule:  I have a conference call at 10a for an hour and then one appointment this afternoon at 1:30.  APPOINTMENTS.  I am setting up appointments for the next several weeks…please let me know if you’re interested in an office visit.  I will be sharing my insight on how to get new business in 2013 and what to prepare for as the year progresses….

My Market Watch:  Rates/pricing are worse on the 30-year coupons from yesterday but no change on 15 and 10 years.  Bonds took a step back after stocks had a minor surge on jobless data.  Simply put, the report showed that less people applied for employment benefits…this is understandably interpreted as a good thing for the economy.  When traders have any data that the economy may be stronger, then they will put their money into stocks and usually bonds suffer as a result.  When bonds suffer, in general terms our rates/pricing worsen.  Although the reverse correlation of stocks and bonds is not a definitive rule, it works most of the time.  TODAY’S OUTLOOK – CAUTION:  As of right now bonds are trading lower…losses have already been included in today’s rates since they were published just a little while ago but if it continues on this downward trend, then you’d better watch out.  Keep an eye on the market…I know I will…..  My Disclaimer

Live For Today

universeMy Schedule…and A Little Extra:  “Live for today!” (emphasis on today)…that’s what my Dad told me yesterday.  “I’m telling ya Phil, life goes by fast…real fast…don’t worry about everything…just live your best life.”  He’s feeling it…80-years old and dealing with some issues, like most if not all 80-year olds. We hear this all the time, right?  Before you know it life will be in the rear view mirror.  But this time it resonated a little more than usual…not sure why.  Is it the possibility of a camping out experience in freezing weather?  Definitely not.  Is it because I’m 45 years old and in the mid-life-thought-process change (I don’t like calling it a mid-life crisis)?  Maybe.  Is it because it scared me to hear my Dad talk about the end of life?  That might be it.  I can’t get his voice out of my head.  Dad has and continues to be a powerful force in my life.  His most intoxicating asset has always been his positive attitude, which used to be my best asset too before the mortgage industry’s onslaught.  I want that feeling back…the feeling of untarnished confidence…the feeling of organic honest positivity.  I think I’m going through a shift…and that’s a good thing….

My Schedule:  I have a conference call at 9a for an hour and then one appointment this afternoon…otherwise available….  APPOINTMENTS.  I am setting up appointments for the next several weeks…please let me know if you’re interested in an office visit.  I will be sharing my insight on how to get new business in 2013 and what to prepare for as the year progresses….

My Important Reminders:

  1. WANTED.  We are looking for Senior Underwriters, Loan coordinators, Junior UWs, Doc Specialists and Funders. Referrals are greatly appreciated.  Remote positions are available.
  2. UW CHANGE.  Beginning with applications dated on or after 1/21/13, UWs will ask for 2012 W2s for salaried borrowers.  In the event the borrower has not yet received the W2, the condition will be added to the Approval and it must be furnished prior to closing.
  3. FANNIE CHANGE.  We are requiring evidence of funds for the payment of 30-day charge accounts even though we are not requiring payoff of the account…this is a change with FNMA 9.0 DU.  If a borrower has a 30-day account, such as Amex or a utility bill that appears on his credit report, DU will require a document to show the borrower has funds to pay that account.  Even if the borrower is getting cash out we still are requiring evidence he has funds due to the 30-day charge appearing.  In other words, we cannot use cashout proceeds to offset the account unless we require the account to be closed.  The DU Findings should spell all this out.  Read your DU carefully…your loan will fly through if you have accounted for every DU message such as funds to close, W2s, bank statements, etc.  Our Underwriters are required to make sure we have answered every DU command/message before approving a loan.
  4. STREETLINKS PRICING INCREASE.  Streetlinks raised their pricing…click here to learn how to see their new prices.

My Market Watch:  Rates are slightly different than yesterday. Ai don’t have a lot to report today…if anything develops I’ll let you know….  My Disclaimer

 

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