Feeling Good Louis – Jobs Report Tomorrow 2
January 31, 2013
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My Market Watch: The 30-year bond traded up and down today. This morning it was down and I was concerned we might have a price worsening. Then around noon it ticked up over +12bps and I thought we might see a price improvement. Bottom line is nobody knows what’s going to happen tomorrow with the Jobs Report but I think there will be some movement.
Remember, you can lock online until 9:45p…rates below are good until then. After that, you’re on tomorrow’s rates.
The expected number to be reported in the Jobs Report is 160,000 new jobs. Traders will decide how to spend tomorrow based on how many new jobs are reported above or below expectations of 160,000. If the report comes in at 160,000 new jobs as expected, then the movement in the market should be minimal. But if the number comes in at say 200,000, then traders will interpret that as a strong economy…more new jobs than expected equals a healthier economy, right? In that case traders will invest in stocks and likely pull money out of bonds and when that happens rates/pricing worsen. On the other hand, if the Jobs Report comes in low, say only 120,000 new jobs, then traders will interpret the economy is worse than thought and they will historically sell off stocks and use the money to buy bonds instead. When that happens rates/pricing improve.
The reason bonds were trading up and down today is because of uncertainty…some were buying bonds in anticipation of a weak jobs report which drove the price of bonds up…then maybe sold off for a quick profit….but there is no way to know. So, if you’re thinking about locking tonight in front of the Jobs Report, you have until 9:45p to do so…after that I wish you the best. For my money, I’d lock. Based on what I’m reading and based on the way things have gone lately I just feel there is more downside than upside. Whatever you do, be sure to make decisions on whether to float or lock based on YOUR OWN RESEARCH. My Disclaimer
If you know what’s going to happen tomorrow please let me know and after its over we can join Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd on the beach. Feeling Good Louis!