Phil Grossfield's Blog


Where The Hell Is Matt? Tracking Bonds

wheremattMy Schedule…and A Little Extra:   WHERE THE HELL IS MATT?  I love this guy…been following him for years now.  Basically he travels all over the place and takes video of dancing with people from all over the world.  Its infectious and he has made a living out of it.  His videos on YouTube are seen by millions and when you watch you’ll see why.  It’s a nice message and for some reason it resonates with people, including me.  2008:  Where the Hell is Matt? and 2012:  Where the Hell is Matt?  |||  LIMITED CONDO REVIEWS:  Please be advised, for all new submissions a condo cert must be filled out and signed by the HOA, even for a limited review.  This does not affect loans submitted prior to 1/21/13.  SALARIED 2012 W2s:  Beginning with applications dated on or after 1/21/13, UWs will ask for 2012 W2s for salaried borrowers.  In the event the borrower has not yet received the W2, the condition will be added to the Approval and it must be furnished prior to closing.  |||  APPOINTMENTS:  I am setting up appointments for the next several weeks…please let me know if you’re interested in an office visit.  I will be sharing my insight on how to get new business in 2013 and what to prepare for as the year progresses….

My Schedule:  I have one meeting today at 10:00a and otherwise available all day….

My Market Watch:  I received many questions and comments from yesterday’s post about market movement and the volatility of bonds.  So, this is an attempt to explain further.  In the graphic you can see that the 30-year Fannie Mae bond is candlestrading between S1 and R1.  S1 is a floor of support and R1 is a ceiling of resistance.  Traders expect the bond to trade in-between these moving averages.  If the bond trades above R1, then traders look for the next ceiling, R2, for guidance.  Similar, if the bond trades below S1, then traders look to the next floor, S2, for guidance.  I hope this isn’t getting too technical.

Right now, the bond is trading just above the S1 floor of support…if it falls through the floor, then traders will continue to sell and you can expect it to slow down when it reaches S2.  Notice this is what happened yesterday…the bond sold all the way down to S2 and then bounced off the floor and started trading up again.  That’s why we saw pricing get worse and then improve again.  When bonds sell off (go down) then pricing/rates worsen.  If the bond is being bought (goes up) then rates/pricing improves.  Does that make sense?  Let me know if you have any questions, okay?   My Disclaimer

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