Phil Grossfield's Blog

A LITTLE EXTRA…

Category Archives: Economic News

It’s A Stress-Free Job In The Mortgage Industry

gumpI Am Gump.  I stood up, paused, and took off.  I ran for about 30 minutes and then decided since I’d run that far I might as well run some more.  So, I ran another 30 minutes up the hill to the mountain and since I’d gone that far I decided to head towards the park.  Then, rather than run across the country I decided to run home…that’s enough.

Call it stress, anxiety…I don’t care.  There’s a lot going on with my travels back home last week to visit family …my elderly parents …my brother’s wedding …and the anticipation of Hanukkah and Christmas since we celebrate both in my house.  Running knocks it out of me – gives me perspective – fresh air – my saving grace.  My only other saving grace is the mortgage industry – it’s a stress-free job.

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Darth Vader Dad

darthDarth Vader Dad.  My wife has been in Israel on assignment for a week (and in NYC before that and in Florida before that … ahhh to be married to a TravelMama.  Anyway, this is how the conversation at my single-parent home went on Saturday.

  • Hey Dad, can you make pancakes for breakfast?  Sure, no problem.
  • Hey Dad, even though you are going to make pancakes, can you make French Toast too?  Sure, no problem.
  • Hey Dad, can you buy me the crappy jewelry-making kit at Target that costs $20?  Sure, no problem.
  • Hey Dad, since you’re buying her that, can you buy me a bunch of useless Pokemon cards that I’ll hardly ever play with?  Sure, no problem.
  • Hey Dad, can we go to Five Guys for lunch and have milkshakes?  Sure, no problem.
  • Hey Dad, will you play Monopoly, and chess, and checkers, and and and and with us?  Sure, no problem.
  • Hey Dad, can we go see the new Peanuts movie tonight?  Not tonight guys…we’ve spent a lot of money, I’m a bit tired, and we have to take showers tonight.
  • You suck Dad.  Yeah, I know.
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Paris – Their NYC

france united states parisParis – Their NYC.  I couldn’t not write something.  Every football game yesterday acknowledged it and Facebook was all over it.  Even though the death toll and number of injured was far less, comparisons to 911 were everywhere.  And then I saw many posts about how this is just one terrorist attack and that we should be ashamed of ourselves for not reacting this way to the countless other massacres taking place all over the world.  Well, maybe that’s true, but we react to the things that hit home…it’s human nature.  I will not apologize for reacting to what happened in Paris.
Paris is our ally and their equivalent of NYC.  The true connection between the two cities is unmistakable and it solidifies the connectedness between our countries.  I don’t even know how to explain or make sense of what happened.  It’s just hate – pure evil justified by distorted/twisted minds.  It’s the Emperor in Star Wars – evil for evil’s sake.  In my last year of law school I worked on a first-degree murder case…the accused was already in prison for killing his lawyer and was now being charged with killing his sister for insurance money.  I got a sense of the depravity.  It’s not something you can explain…it’s just warped…shaped by evil.
I talked to my kids about it figuring they would hear something and I’d rather they hear it from me first.  “But why, Daddy?”  Because there are evil people in this world…people who use powerful negativity to bring about contagious chaos and pain.  Your job is to stay clear of it and battle the negativity with positive thoughts and acts of kindness…things that are equally powerful, maybe even moreso, and just as contagious as evil.
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NFL Contracts Null & Void

kamNFL Contracts – Kam Chancellor.   Kam Chancellor of the should-be Superbowl Champion Seattle Seahawks, who signed a contract extension for $28 million was unsatisfied.  In fact, Chancellor, who is considered one of the best (if not the best) strong safeties in the NFL was so unsatisfied that he refused to suit up for the first two games of the NFL season.  That decision cost him over $535,000 in salary and it cost the Seahawks two losses to begin the season.

After my post last week where I called out the NFL for charging the military to honor them, this debate saw its way to my inbox:  (1) from an ethics perspective, should Chancellor renegotiate his contract? and (2) should the NFL allow him to renegotiate his contract?  One buddy of mine argued that Kam signed a contract and therefore he should honor it, after all, nobody held a gun to his head when he agreed to get paid almost $30 million for playing the game.  I suppose most people would argue similarly, including me if I weren’t a damn lawyer.

I see it like this…it’s the NFL’s fault.  They allow players to renegotiate their contracts and in doing so they set a precedent. If the NFL is going to allow some NFL players to restructure their contracts, then they have to make it available to all the players.  Knowing that other players have been successful in renegotiating their contracts, why shouldn’t Kam give it shot as well?  So, from an ethics point of view, I don’t think it’s fair to judge Kam…he’s just doing what others have done before him, and successfully at that.

contractOn the other hand, I feel the NFL has wrongly opened the door to renegotiation.  If  the consensus is that players should have to honor the contract they signed in good faith, then the NFL should simply disallow any renegotiation…period…no exceptions.  One of my readers suggested there should be a clause in all NFL players’ contracts that if they fail to suit up, and in doing so are deemed in violation of their contract, that their contract be null and void with no further compensation.  I think that’s a fine idea except it would probably be used as a tactic rather than accepted as a punishment.  So, I will add this…if the contract is deemed null and void with no more compensation, then the player should also be unable to sign another contract with any NFL team for 24 consecutive regular season games, including any playoff games that fall in-between.  That ought to do it, eh?  Your thoughts?

NFL Disgraceful?

NFL Disgraceful? Did you know the NFL is paid by the military to endorse the troops? Yep, the military pays the NFL for all those warm heartfelt endorsements before, during and after games. I know it’s a business but that pisses me off, particularly because I thought they were doing it as a way to pay tribute and honor our military, not for profits. The Department of Defense has paid 14 different NFL teams a total of $5.4 million over the last four years in exchange for patriotic displays at games. Does that surprise you? Does that make you mad too? CBS Sports

military nfl
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INTEREST ONLY IS BACK!

Hey Phil, Will Rates Get Better Or Worse?

Why should a Mortgage Broker be knowledgeable about traders’ behavior…how does that relate to your business?  Well, let me start by answering that question with some questions.
Have you ever had a borrower that wasn’t interested in rate?
How often does your borrower say, “I don’t care about my rate”?
How often does your borrower ask, “so, what do you think rates are going to do?”
How about this one, “should I lock or wait?”
confusedSo what do you say?  Uh…I don’t know?  Uh…I can’t predict rates so it’s a crap-shoot?  Uh…me donut know what going to happen to rate?  Simply put, the more information you can give your borrower, and the more knowledgeable your borrower perceives you to be about the market, the more trust you will instill.  And borrowers that trust their mortgage professionals will not only continue to do business with you, but they will tell the entire world how wonderful you are.  Now, I’m not suggesting you need to be an expert on market transactions and get an economics degree like me (I also have a law degree and practiced law for many years but this isn’t about me so I’ll shut-up about me now since you already know I’m awesome).  But I am saying that having a basic understanding of how the market works and how world economies, news, and politics affect trading behavior will give you excellent talking points with your borrowers.  Talking points – that’s the key.  Many of you call me and ask me what I think is going to happen in the marketplace…I always provide an answer.  I’m not always right, but I always have talking points as to what’s going on and how I might advise you.  My clients find that valuable…do your borrowers find you valuable?  If you want to learn more, let’s get together…I have a lot to share…

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Sometimes I Hate Human Beings…

smileSometimes I absolutely hate human beings…and sometimes I absolutely love them.   I challenge you not to smile…click the picture below:

My Market Update 10/05/2015

The Fannie Mae 30-year bond is -6bps since Friday’s close.  Generally a lender’s rates/pricing worsens when the bond is being sold-off.
It’s a relatively quiet week with respect to economic reports so traders will be looking at technical signals to decide whether to buy or sell.  When I say technical signals, I mean past trends in the buying and selling of the 30-year Fannie Mae bond by traders.  These past trends are referred to as Moving Averages.  In a nutshell, traders look at these moving averages to see if a pattern exists that might give them the upper hand in guessing when the bond might go up or down.  If a trader has a good guess as to which the bond will trade, then they can proactively buy or sell strategically.  For more details on this tactic by traders, refer to My Great Bond Elevator Analogy.
Why should a Mortgage Broker be knowledgeable about traders’ behavior…how does that relate to your business?  Well, let me start by answering that question with some questions.
Have you ever had a borrower that wasn’t interested in rate?
How often does your borrower say, “I don’t care about my rate”?
How often does your borrower ask, “so, what do you think rates are going to do?”
How about this one, “should I lock or wait?”
confusedSo what do you say?  Uh, I don’t know?  Uh, I can’t predict rates so it’s a crap-shoot?  Uh, me don’t know what going to happen to rate?  Simply put, the more information you can give your borrower, and the more knowledgeable your borrower perceives you to be about the market, the more trust you will instill.  And borrowers that trust their mortgage professionals will not only continue to do business with you, but they will tell the entire world how great you are.  Now, I’m not suggesting you need to be an expert on market transactions and get an economics degree like me (I also have a law degree and practiced law for many years but this isn’t about me so I’ll shut-up about me now since you already know I’m awesome).  But I am saying that having a basic understanding of how the market works and how world economies, news, and politics affect trading will give you excellent talking points with your borrowers.  Many of you call me and ask me what I think is going to happen in the marketplace…I always answer…I’m not always right…but I always have an idea of what’s going on and how I might advise you.  My clients find that valuable…do your borrower’s find you valuable?  If you want to learn more, let’s get together…I have a lot to share…

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Vikings Crush Chargers – Big Daddy Crushes Grossfield

Vikings Crush Chargers – Big Daddy Crushes Grossfield.  I scored the third highest points this weekend in my Fantasy Football League. Guess who I played against, go ahead, guess. Yup, Big Daddy (his high school nickname because he had a huge hairy chest at 16-years old and basically was the center of our group) had the most points and of course, that’s who I played against. Woe is me.

vikingsMy consolation prize? The Minnesota Vikings crushed the San Diego Chargers. Now you’d think that living in San Diego for 15 years would turn me into a Chargers fan, and you’d be right. Unless they’re playing the Vikings. In that case I hope for the Vikings to humiliate them on the field and turn those 300+ football players into crying babies. Mission accomplished. That’s all I have to say about that.

My Market Update 9/30/2015

The Fannie Mae 30-year bond is +6bps since yesterday’s close. Generally a lender’s rates/pricing improves when the bond is being bought.

jobsreport2The big news will be next week’s Jobs Report. After a fantastic week for bonds with rates dipping to lows not seen in 5 months, next week’s report will likely have a significant impact on pricing. A strong Jobs Report, which will tell traders the economy is stronger than expected, would spur investments into stocks. The result would likely be a sell-off of bonds and forcing rates/pricing worse. However, a weak Jobs Report, which will tell traders the economy is weaker than expected, would spur investments into safer bonds instead of stocks. The result would be improved rates/pricing. I’m really throwing some positive energy towards the latter scenario…if it happens bonds could really push much higher greatly improving pricing. More on this next week…

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Blood Moon Up – Inflation Down – Bonds Up

blood moonBlood Moon Up – Inflation Down – Bonds Up.  For the first time in 33-years, a blood moon appeared the other night.  What I imagined was how our ancestors thought about it.  Even today it gives a sectarian feeling, theological, supernatural, or at a minimum, a general spiritual feeling. At the fear of sounding completely sappy, I found it inspiring.A “Blood Moon” happens when the Earth eclipses a full Moon, that is the direct sunlight is blocked.  But the sun’s rays still light up the moon. Because this light has traveled through the Earth’s atmosphere, it causes reddish or brownish image.  Depending on what time at night you witnessed it, the alluring image changed…each incredible…each inspiring.  Here are some photos from the other night:  2015 Blood Moon.

My Market Update:  9/28/2015

Generally a lender’s rates/pricing improves when the bond is being bought.  The reason we saw an uptick in bond activity is inflationary concerns, which are less after the Fed essentially said there is no inflation and reports this week confirming the same.  yellenYou see, bonds hate inflation so when there is none, bonds appear attractive.  Traders got that message and started investing in bonds and when that happens our rates/pricing improve – that is the direct correlation between bonds and our rates.

Interestingly enough, a rate hike would help to curb rising inflation, which is one of the reasons Janet Yellen and the Fed were expected to raise rates in September.  So now that reports indicate low if not any inflation, and the Yellen concurs with that assessment, so will we see a rate hike in 2015?   Janet Yellen: Remain on Track – Raise Rates This Year.

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