Phil Grossfield's Blog

A LITTLE EXTRA…

Monthly Archives: May 2013

Bonds Way Up! Candice Wins!

candice_kree

Candice Wins American Idol!  I may be wrong…we find out tonight. Kree Harrison was phenomenal last night…I love her soulful angelic voice. But Candice Glover has a powerhouse voice second to none…she commands the stage and has that something that transcends all others. Although Kree has the country vote which is extremely powerful, and she might win it, I voted for Candice.

My Schedule: I have appointments at 10:30a and 2:30p and otherwise available.

My Market Watch:

Bonds are WAY UP this morning as the roller coaster ride continues. The 30-year bond is up +50bps on the day at the time I am writing this. That usually represents 0.250-0.375 uptick in pricing if it holds at the time rates are published. First, inflation data was negative meaning it’s going down and since bonds hate inflation a negative inflation report is a positive report for bonds. When bonds are attractive to traders they usually pull money out of stocks to invest in bonds instead and this improves our rates/pricing. Second, weekly jobless claims rose…this measures the number of people filing for state unemployment insurance. Think about it, if you’re a trader on Wall Street would you put your money into stocks if you knew there were less jobs? Heck no! So, you pull money out of stocks and put it into bonds instead. This improves our rates/pricing even more.

Also, and this is where it gets really exciting, candles 6_1 the bond is now trading above a floor that was a resistance level. That means traders look to the next floor for guidance on when to sell. This could be a good day for bonds! Of course, traders also like to take the gains when they are easy pickings…since many bought bonds this morning at a low price, and now that price has risen from all the activity, they might start selling bonds to take the profits. If bonds start heading south, lock in and take the higher pricing this morning, can you dig it?

My Schedule:
I have a meeting in Irvine today at 10:30a so I’ll be in my car this morning and available by phone. This afternoon I have a training for our new GFE Validator from 1:30p-2:30p so I’ll be around after that when I head back to San Diego.
Baby Swimming Survival Video.  I really wish I had tried this with my kids when they were younger…you have to check this out…it is really cool:  Baby Swimming Survival Video.  Don’t worry, nothing bad happens.

babyswim

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Willy Wonka Versus Willy Wonka; Bond Roller Coaster

willywonkaWilly Wonka versus Willy Wonka. Some movie remakes are better than the original. For example, The Fly with Jeff Goldblum was awesome compared to the original. Another great example that comes to mind is the War of the Worlds with Tom Cruise which was really blanking scary, even for an old man like me. But some remakes really blanking blow it. The first Willy Wonka movie with Gene Wilder was a billion times better than the second with Johnny Depp. The whole first half of the movie before they even get inside the chocolate factory was brilliant with all the little scenes depicting the crazed worldwide search for the golden ticket which culminate to Charlie unwrapping his winning bar…simply awesomeness…is that a word? And Gene Wilder was sooooooooo much better than Johnny Depp. Depp was creepy in a creepy way instead of creepy in an eccentric way, like Wilder. Simply put, the second movie was horrendous…there are so many ways this movie stunk it up beyond Depp’s depiction of Wonka…the Oompa Loompas and songs…all hideous. If you haven’t seen the new movie, don’t waste your time even if your kids beg, like mine did.

I am planning on watching the new Total Recall movie soon…it’s recorded on my DVR and I just need some blissful family-free time to actually watch it. I’ll try and keep an open mind but how could it possibly compare to Arnold’s version?

My Schedule: I have appointments at 10:30a and 2:30p and otherwise available.

This is really blanking cool…don’t worry, nothing bad happens:  Baby Swimming Survival Video.

babyswim

 

 

 

Don’t Castrate Them 2

spockThe point of my post yesterday was to focus on something productive to deflect my strong negative emotions after learning that 3 men in Ohio kidnapped and held those girls for 10 years. That’s why I entitled the post Don’t Castrate Them. Although I received many comments about the post and all of them were supportive, there were a few comments about the strong words I used. Hate is a human emotion…it creeps in there from time to time…but it can be controlled…just ask Spock. My words yesterday may have been strong, but they were honest. I make no apologies, not that anyone asked for one. When I have strong negative emotions, I refocus my energy to something positive and productive. Otherwise the negative cycle continues…more hate…more collective pain. Enter Jedi Max…and I followed through…I sent Jedi Max and his sister a card, and my kids also sent one. As I said, random acts of kindness are the answer.

My Schedule: I have appointments at 10:30a and 2:30p and otherwise available.


fergusonsWalk With Me For A Cure for Cystic Fibrosis. Our family is walking again this year to find a cure for CF, a life-limiting illness. We walk for our friends pictured, Ashton (age 11) and Lola (age 7). The average life expectancy of someone with CF is 37…let’s change that! Click here to donate or join me and walk with my family on May 19th…email me for details. Every penny helps find a cure. THANKS!

Don’t Castrate Them…Focus on Jedi Max Instead

I am conflicted. On the one hand I have worked hard at becoming a better person…I read books about positive thought and balance. I even watch Oprah! That training tells me to forgive the evil men who held those girls captive for 10 years in Ohio. According to my training I should pray for their souls. But on the other hand, the hand I throw a ball with and golf with and bat with, I want those three men castrated publicly and sentenced to life in prison where they will be repeatedly raped until they are dead. Such hatred I am capable of.  It so upsets me that this happens in our world, and it so upsets me that I have such a violent reaction to it.  I hate those men…I really truly hate them to my bones. And I hate that I hate them. It’s a viscous brutal scary cycle.

So, let’s focus on something different, shall we?

jedimax

There is a boy whose name is Jedi Max…his dream was to visit Paris but he has cancer and isn’t going to be able to make it. Like many, my wife and kids wrote him a postcard and drew him pictures. Please refocus your energy and send him a postcard…just think about the impact to his soul when he gets hundreds of well wishes. Oh, and he has a 6-year old sister too…sending her a note of encouragement would mean a lot. 🙂  Jedi Max and his Sister. I will be sending my own postcard to max and his sister today…I feel better already…random acts of kindness…it’s the answer!

My Market Watch:  Pricing is the same as yesterday and the market is flat…I’ll try and keep you posted as the day progresses….

My Schedule:  I have an appointment at 1p and otherwise available.


fergusonsWalk With Me For A Cure for Cystic Fibrosis. Our family is walking again this year to find a cure for CF, a life-limiting illness. We walk for our friends pictured, Ashton (age 11) and Lola (age 7). The average life expectancy of someone with CF is 37…let’s change that! Click here to donate or join me and walk with my family on May 19th…email me for details. Every penny helps find a cure. THANKS!

No Boasting Escondido Renaissance Festival

photo 1I love me a Renaissance Festival…ever since I was a young one this Festival in Minnesota was one of my favorites. I loved the outdoor setting, the jousting, the archery, the outfits, the shopping, and the robust attitude of the actors. I liked to imagine I lived back in those times…what fun! But more than anything I loved the food. There were plenty of options as you walked around the fields. The one thing that sticks out in my mind was the popovers. Seriously, they had the best popovers in the world and this is coming from a Jew who grew up on popovers. To be fair, I’m pretty sure the popovers at the Minnesota Renaissance Festival was not following Passover rules, but man they were good. I want one five right now!

I had a great time at the Escondido Renaissance Festival yesterday. The kids had fun too watching the little acts and getting tattoos, pictured to the left. But the food choices were limited and unimpressive. Whomever planned the event obviously doesn’t understand what attracts people to fairs and the like…yes, it’s always the food. We are gluttonous Americans and when we return from the fair we take pride and joy in boasting about all we ate. I can take no such pride nor make no such boasts. So if you’re reading Escondido Renaissance Festival planning committee, which I highly doubt you are, get many more food options and many more vendors. The boasting will serve you well.

My Market Watch:  Pricing is the same as Friday and there are little reports this week. When the economic reporting is light, traders look to other sources to decide whether to buy stocks and/or bonds. Any local or geopolitical news that could be interpreted as affecting the economic markets will be taken into consideration. The only other thing they look to are the technical signals, meaning, the trends over the last 200 days of how bonds have been bought and sold. The trends are commonly referred to as “moving averages.” If you recall, my Glass Elevator Analogy speaks to this…traders often buy and sell bonds based on the bonds past behavior, and they use the Glass Elevator Analogy to predict when to buy and sell. Let me know if you’d like to discuss….

glass elevator analogy2

My Schedule:  I have an appointment this morning at 9:45 that should last until about 11:30a. I will be available the remainder of the day.  Please note, I rarely answer my phone before 10:30a as I use this time to catch up on the previous day’s business and prepare the remainder of the day….


fergusonsWalk With Me For A Cure for Cystic Fibrosis. Our family is walking again this year to find a cure for CF, a life-limiting illness. We walk for our friends pictured, Ashton (age 11) and Lola (age 7). The average life expectancy of someone with CF is 37…let’s change that! Click here to donate or join me and walk with my family on May 19th…email me for details. Every penny helps find a cure. THANKS!

Jobs Report Strikes; Producers Are Killing American Idol

amberThe producers are blowing it. My favorite contestant, Amber Holcomb, was eliminated last night and I blame the producers. The contestants at this point are all awesome but their performances on Wednesday were lacking…it’s the producers/directors fault. Simply put, the singers are over-worked, over-tired, and way over-sung. The demand on these girls is relentless. This strategy of pushing them to their limit is resulting in poor performances. It’s a singing show! We want the contestants to be at their best…that’s what’s fun…the awesome singing! Isn’t there enough pressure to sing in front of a huge studio audience and millions of people on T.V.? But Nooooooooooo, the producers feel the girls should have to learn additional singing and dancing routines on top of their regular performances, and, attend a million press events and activities. Moreover, the theme on Wednesday was a hit song from 2013…these girls haven’t been listening to the radio for months…how are they supposed to learn and connect to a song they barely know? They can’t…when she is concentrating on remembering the lyrics to a song that means nothing to her, the voice and overall performance is going to suck…case in point for all the girls on Wednesday. It’s killing the show. Still, all that said, the 3 remaining girls are fantastic and if they get enough rest, and don’t have to learn a million things for the finale, the conclusion will be entertaining. As for Amber, I’m a part of her audience now…I’ll buy the first album she puts out. This was arguably a flawless performance.

My Market Watch:  Pricing is worse by 0.125-0.375 just as I predicted yesterday. The Jobs Report indicated over 165,000 new jobs when only 150,000 were expected. Since more new jobs were created than expected, traders deduced the economy is doing well and therefore pulled money out of bonds to invest in stocks instead. When bonds are sold off like this its price worsens and this directly and negatively affects our rates/pricing. If you needed to lock a loan I hope you did it yesterday as I advised. The bond market has stabilized for now and this is a very good thing. As it stands, the bond is resting on 2 important floors of support…we do not want to see the bond sell off anymore and drop below these floors. If it does, then the next floor down is another -30bps. If you have no idea what I’m typing about, check out my post on The Glass Elevator Analogy. Let me know if you would like to discuss.

glass elevator analogy2

My Schedule:  I have a meeting at 11a this morning and another at 1:30-2:30p…calls and emails will be returned in-between and after. Please note, I rarely answer my phone before 10:30a as I use this time to catch up on the previous day’s business and prepare the remainder of the day….


fergusonsWalk With Me For A Cure for Cystic Fibrosis. Our family is walking again this year to find a cure for CF, a life-limiting illness. We walk for our friends pictured, Ashton (age 11) and Lola (age 7). The average life expectancy of someone with CF is 37…let’s change that! Click here to donate or join me and walk with my family on May 19th…email me for details. Every penny helps find a cure. THANKS!

Jobs Report Tomorrow

jobsreportMy Market Watch: Pricing is the same as yesterday despite bonds selling off at the end of the day…IB has stayed aggressive. Tomorrow is the Jobs Report for April…this report has the potential to move the markets significantly and I think based on my research it could be a shift negative for bonds. Of course, if I knew for sure what was going to happen I certainly wouldn’t be working with you…I’d be sipping a cocktail on a beach somewhere, no offense. Last month the numbers were lower than expected but this time I think the numbers will come in strong. If so, rates/pricing would certainly worsen. Here’s the analysis…the Jobs Report indicates how many new jobs were created in April. If the report indicates a lot of new jobs, then traders consider that a good sign for the economy, makes sense right?  So if it is reported tomorrow there are significantly less than 150,000 new jobs, then traders will interpret this news as bad for the economy and as a result they will pull money out of the stock market and put that money into bonds instead – this would improve our rates/pricing. On the other hand, if it is reported tomorrow there are significantly more than 150,000 new jobs, then traders will interpret this as good news for the economy and as a result they will pull money out of the bond market and invest that money into stocks – this would worsen rates/pricing. My prediction is the latter. If I’m right, then today is the day to lock.  Keep in mind I don’t expect a huge change in pricing…but I could see things move anywhere from -0.125-0.375. Remember, this is only an opinion…please make your decisions based on your own research. Watch the market today and see what happens…remember, you can lock online in our portal until 9:45p.

My Schedule: I’m available all day. Please note, I rarely answer my phone before 10:30a as I use this time to catch up on the previous day’s business and prepare the remainder of the day….


fergusonsWalk With Me For A Cure for Cystic Fibrosis. Our family is walking again this year to find a cure for CF, a life-limiting illness. We walk for our friends pictured, Ashton (age 11) and Lola (age 7). The average life expectancy of someone with CF is 37…let’s change that! Click here to donate or join me and walk with my family on May 19th…email me for details. Every penny helps find a cure. THANKS!

Where Were The Blanking Gadgets?!

jamesbondWhere were the blanking gadgets?! Skyfall, the James Bond movie, found its way onto my iPad and I watched it last night with headphones. In general I liked it but I have to criticize it too. Why you ask? Because that’s what I do…you got a problem with that? Anyway, my gripe is there were virtually no gadgets, you know, like the exploding pen, or the coin-sized lazer. There was even a traditional scene when 007 gets his gadgets from Q…but this time all he gets is a gun and an unimpressive location signal. That sucks! The gadgets are the best part! It’s like the producers got lazy and decided it was too much trouble to come up with innovative fun stuff. Maybe they figured that all the gadgets have already been invented. Well I say crapper to that. Hell, they could of made an iPad that turns into a head-splitting frisbee…anything, right? That’s all I have to say about that.

My Market Watch: Pricing is the same as yesterday despite friendly bond numbers this morning. Today the Fed will be in the news, always a big potential market mover and remember that Friday is the big Jobs Report.

My Schedule: I’m available all day. Please note, I rarely answer my phone before 10:30a as I use this time to catch up on the previous day’s business and prepare the remainder of the day….


fergusonsWalk With Me For A Cure for Cystic Fibrosis. Our family is walking again this year to find a cure for CF, a life-limiting illness. We walk for our friends pictured, Ashton (age 11) and Lola (age 7). The average life expectancy of someone with CF is 37…let’s change that! Click here to donate or join me and walk with my family on May 19th…email me for details. Every penny helps find a cure. THANKS!

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