Phil Grossfield's Blog

My Market Watch: Pricing is the same as yesterday despite bonds selling off at the end of the day…IB has stayed aggressive. Tomorrow is the Jobs Report for April…this report has the potential to move the markets significantly and I think based on my research it could be a shift negative for bonds. Of course, if I knew for sure what was going to happen I certainly wouldn’t be working with you…I’d be sipping a cocktail on a beach somewhere, no offense. Last month the numbers were lower than expected but this time I think the numbers will come in strong. If so, rates/pricing would certainly worsen. Here’s the analysis…the Jobs Report indicates how many new jobs were created in April. If the report indicates a lot of new jobs, then traders consider that a good sign for the economy, makes sense right?  So if it is reported tomorrow there are significantly less than 150,000 new jobs, then traders will interpret this news as bad for the economy and as a result they will pull money out of the stock market and put that money into bonds instead – this would improve our rates/pricing. On the other hand, if it is reported tomorrow there are significantly more than 150,000 new jobs, then traders will interpret this as good news for the economy and as a result they will pull money out of the bond market and invest that money into stocks – this would worsen rates/pricing. My prediction is the latter. If I’m right, then today is the day to lock.  Keep in mind I don’t expect a huge change in pricing…but I could see things move anywhere from -0.125-0.375. Remember, this is only an opinion…please make your decisions based on your own research. Watch the market today and see what happens…remember, you can lock online in our portal until 9:45p.

My Schedule: I’m available all day. Please note, I rarely answer my phone before 10:30a as I use this time to catch up on the previous day’s business and prepare the remainder of the day….

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