Phil Grossfield's Blog


Bonds Way Up! Candice Wins!


Candice Wins American Idol!  I may be wrong…we find out tonight. Kree Harrison was phenomenal last night…I love her soulful angelic voice. But Candice Glover has a powerhouse voice second to none…she commands the stage and has that something that transcends all others. Although Kree has the country vote which is extremely powerful, and she might win it, I voted for Candice.

My Schedule: I have appointments at 10:30a and 2:30p and otherwise available.

My Market Watch:

Bonds are WAY UP this morning as the roller coaster ride continues. The 30-year bond is up +50bps on the day at the time I am writing this. That usually represents 0.250-0.375 uptick in pricing if it holds at the time rates are published. First, inflation data was negative meaning it’s going down and since bonds hate inflation a negative inflation report is a positive report for bonds. When bonds are attractive to traders they usually pull money out of stocks to invest in bonds instead and this improves our rates/pricing. Second, weekly jobless claims rose…this measures the number of people filing for state unemployment insurance. Think about it, if you’re a trader on Wall Street would you put your money into stocks if you knew there were less jobs? Heck no! So, you pull money out of stocks and put it into bonds instead. This improves our rates/pricing even more.

Also, and this is where it gets really exciting, candles 6_1 the bond is now trading above a floor that was a resistance level. That means traders look to the next floor for guidance on when to sell. This could be a good day for bonds! Of course, traders also like to take the gains when they are easy pickings…since many bought bonds this morning at a low price, and now that price has risen from all the activity, they might start selling bonds to take the profits. If bonds start heading south, lock in and take the higher pricing this morning, can you dig it?

My Schedule:
I have a meeting in Irvine today at 10:30a so I’ll be in my car this morning and available by phone. This afternoon I have a training for our new GFE Validator from 1:30p-2:30p so I’ll be around after that when I head back to San Diego.
Baby Swimming Survival Video.  I really wish I had tried this with my kids when they were younger…you have to check this out…it is really cool:  Baby Swimming Survival Video.  Don’t worry, nothing bad happens.


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