Phil Grossfield's Blog

Deflategate III.  It’s not difficult for a NFL QB to tell the difference between a properly inflated ball and a deflated ball. To wit, Drew Brees, QB of the New Orleans Saints (and formerly the San Diego Chargers) was handed two footballs on Conan O’Brien and Brees accurately judged one football to have 13 pounds of pressure and another to have 11. But he also said this, “throughout the course of a game a ball will come up and you won’t even think about how it feels. You’re programed to go through your read, throw the ball, no excuses. But if we just sat here and kind of gripped one, I could probably tell the difference.”

I want to believe they’re innocent…but now this?! Bill Nye the Science Guy explains the science behind DeflateGate.

iPhone Still Kills.  Many of you took exception when I spoke the truth yesterday about Apple’s dominance in the cell phone space. For the record, any of you claiming your cell phone is better than the iPhone is wrong….sorry, but you are. Your phone is is ugly and inferior in every possible way compared to the iPhone. Sorry…I just type the truth.

My Market Update – 01/29/2015

The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading down -14bps this morning since yesterday’s close. Generally a lender’s pricing worsens when the bond is being sold off.

The bond improved yesterday after the Fed meeting probably because there was mention of a decrease in inflation. Bonds hate inflation so when traders heard inflation was less of a concern they invested in bonds. As of now the bond is trading right on the ceiling. Our rates did not improve yesterday afternoon unlike many lenders but our pricing is very aggressive this morning. But with the way bonds are moving right now, I would be concerned we could lose those gains. I advise locking if you have a need-to-lock-soon situation.

My Disclaimer

Deflategate II.  You really think they’re cheaters?!  After talking to many of you yesterday I know there are a lot of opinions…BUT I DIDN’T GET YOUR EMAILS!  Resend them!

Deflategate I yesterday continues here…  I will say this, I know Brady and Belichick have been accused of cheating before, but c’mon…there’s no way!  Maybe it’s because I’m naive…I like to believe people are innocent.  When OJ was accused I defended him for the longest time…my wife was p.o.’d at me for even considering his innocence.  And when Clinton looked the camera (me) in the eye and said he didn’t have sexual relations with that woman, I believed him (but I also didn’t care).  And when my broker was accused of a straw-buyer scheme in 2007, I initially defended his honor until I investigated and found out the truth.  I guess that’s why I intended to be a criminal defense attorney before I changed trajectories.  I guess I want to believe the best in people.   But Brady and Belichick? C’mon!

My Market Update – 01/27/2015

The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading up +20bps since yesterday’s close.  Generally a lender’s pricing improves when the bond is being bought.

The Fannie Mae 30-year bond is dancing on a ceiling of resistance.  That means traders are buying bonds but start selling it off when it reaches a high price (the ceiling), presumably to take gains.  That’s why they call it a ceiling of resistance …it influences traders to stop buying.

The ceiling is a line based on past trends in buying and selling…it helps traders decide if they should keep buying or stop and maybe even sell.  Think about it…if you knew your bonds had reached the highest price, would you keep buying?  Hell no!  This of course assumes you believe in buying low and selling high, and if you don’t, you need to rethink your career.

So, the question is, will traders keep buying and push the bond over the ceiling into another floor of trading?  I think not, at least not today.  It’s my opinion that you should consider locking if you’re under the gun and have to decide quickly what to do.  If you have time to float, then you might want to see what the remainder of the week brings.  I hope that’s helpful…

Deflategate.  Tom Brady is not a cheater.  Bill Belichick is not a cheater.  Does anyone else out there think this is completely ridiculous as I do?

If you live under a rock then let me explain…the New England Patriots whooped the Indianapolis Colts last week to win a Superbowl appearance this Sunday in Phoenix…but they were accused of cheating. Specifically, the accusation is that footballs used for the Patriots offense were deflated (by 2-pounds which is a lot) making them softer for the purpose of making throwing and catching easier.  Moreover, the accusation is that the deflation of all 12 Patriot footballs occurred just before the beginning of the second half wherein the Patriots scored most of their points.

If you don’t follow football then you wouldn’t know that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are two future Hall Of Famers.  “Coach Belichick…will go down as the greatest NFL coach of all time,” said Peyton Manning….and if you don’t know who Peyton Manning is then just stop reading this post now…I’m done with you. And Brady, well, he has earned 6 trips to the Super Bowl, won 3 of them, was named MVP in 2 of them, has 2 league MVP awards, has been selected to 10 Pro-Bowls, and has led his team to 12 division titles and has more playoff victories than any other quarterback in NFL history.  In other words, he’s good…great actually…maybe the best.  For the love of all things holy in this land, Brady did not get where he is today by cheating.  Can I get a “Hell Ya!”

One more thing, why isn’t the NFL referees in charge of these footballs?  Can someone explain this to me please?

My Market Update – 01/26/2015

The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading flat at 0bps…neither up nor down…par golf.  Generally a lender’s pricing improves when the bond is being bought and worsens when it’s sold off.

This week the Fed meets just after housing data is released. Whenever the Fed meets it makes my spine tingle…usually there is movement in the markets on such an occasion.  I’m really curious to see how trading is affected by the blizzard storm closing in on New York City which is expected to be one of the worst storms in their history.  Suffice it to say, this week could be interesting.  If I were a betting man, which I’m not unless I’m playing poker or Fantasy Football, I’d wager the stock market is going to suffer this week which means the bond market would have a good shot at improving. If I’m right, and you’ll please read my disclaimer below, our rates/pricing would improve.

Ego – Too Much Or Too Little?  Too much or too little or just right?  Ego…it causes all the hate in our world…I’m convinced of that.  But some Ego is okay…it can even be helpful…useful.  But let’s focus on the negative, shall we?

I think everyone is born with a big ego.  I often hear people say that babies are born innocent…uh, not so much.  Babies are certainly cute, but make no mistake about it…they are selfish and self-absorbed creatures.  Only over time do humans learn to reduce ego and increase tolerance.  Some people never learn, either because of a genetic in-balance or unfortunate environmental surroundings.  We call those people psychopaths because they lack empathy for others.

Over our lives we humans go one of two directions…we either become more tolerant of others or less tolerant of others.  Another way to say it is that we become more forgiving of others or less forgiving of others.  Those that are less forgiving and less tolerant have huge egos…they want everyone to be like them and if not, well, then they hate…  Baseless hatred is all ego.

You know the old cranky man who sits on his porch and yells at people all day…a curmudgeon…he’s become less tolerant and less forgiving of others over the course of his life.  I hope most of us find the other side where we become more tolerant and more forgiving of others.  We are interested in peace and togetherness.  That’s all I have to say about that.

My Market Update – 01/23/2015

The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading up again, THANK GOODNESS!  It is up +22bps this morning since yesterday’s close.  Generally a lender’s pricing improves when the bond is being bought.

After a week of volatility the bond has held it’s ground relatively well.  We’re still in great rate range.  As you can see, over the course of a year the bond has improved and our rates along with it.