Phil Grossfield's Blog

A LITTLE EXTRA…

Punks…All Punks! Bonds Up – Pricing Strong

spurs_heatPunks…All Of You!  You’re All Wrong About the NBA Finals

My post yesterday that the Miami Heat would win the NBA Finals was met with a flurry of emails from dissenting readers. Look, I know the Spurs are good…they’re in the Finals and that should be enough to prove that point. And yes, Parker is arguably the best point guard in the game. And Yes, Ginobili is brilliant at times. And yes, Leonard can be an explosive role player. And I’ll even concede that the Spurs have a leg up with coaching with one of the best coaches ever in Popovich. But against the Heat, they’re all punks. Lebron is going to make Leonard look like a lost puppy…he won’t be guarding him for long.

spursAnd as far as Ginobili goes against the Heat, he’s a punk who will only show up in spurts but it won’t be enough. And Duncan, he’s old. And Parker? Well, I can’t really talk much smack about Parker…if he’s on all cylinders he’s pretty much impossible to stop. But bottom line, if the Heat are on their game, they cannot lose. Wade’s going to be a different player starting tomorrow, guaranteed. And without Hibbert in the game Bosh might even show up for the party. And if Allen gets going, watch out! And if it’s a close game, I’ll take Lebron to win it. I was watching ESPN last night and it seems everyone thinks the Spurs are going to win in 7. I think they’re all wrong and so are you. YOU’RE ALL A BUNCH OF PUNKS!  How do you like me now?! I’ve got the Heat in 6. That’s all I have to say about that.

My Schedule:  I have an appointment in Irvine at 10:30a and otherwise available.

My Market Watch:  Bonds Up – Prices Strong. The 30-year bond is up +32bps so far. We’ve seen this before though…bonds get bought by traders early in the morning and then sell off before the coffee is done brewing. I hope it sticks today!  This morning was the ADP Employment Report and bonds were unaffected. The report indicated less new jobs than anticipated which is obviously considered a negative report for the economy. In turn bonds picked up while stocks declined.

Friday is the Jobs Report and so far based on what I’m reading we are expecting 160,000 new jobs to have been created in May. Remember, the number of jobs created is irrelevant…it’s more about what we expect versus the actual number that matters. If the number is much less or much higher than expected, then trading will really fly. Up until the report, traders can only predict what will happen and buy and sell according to their best guess, based on opinions and other data. More to come….

Miami Heat Will Win The NBA Championship

james_wadeMiami Heat.  Lebron James, Dwayne Wade and the rest of the Miami Heat own the NBA Championship. Yes, I know they still have to play the San Antonio Spurs but come on! There is no way the Spurs have a chance against this team. The Heat have been playing awful and still they win. Last night they finally got some production from Dwayne Wade and look what happened.  And for all you Lebron James haters out there because he left Cleveland, you need to get over it. I admit he was stupid to make such a big deal out of it with all the press conferences and hoopla. But moving to Miami was smart, very smart. By joining Miami and keeping Wade there he all but insured a long run at the NBA Championship. He looked at other great teams and learned he needed to have more than one superstar to achieve greatness, i.e., the Lakers with Magic and Kareem. Miami now has all the tools…they have a great bench, great role players, and great superstars. Their biggest weakness, besides Wade’s knees, was in my opinion the coaching staff but that too seems to be improving. For example, putting James on Paul George last night was a brilliant coaching move by Erik Spoelstra. I’ll take the Heat to win the Championship this year, and next year too assuming they are all back and healthy.

My Schedule:  I have a conference call with Operations this morning from 9-10a. Then I have an appointment in Irvine at 10:30a and another at 3p. In-between I will return emails and calls but please be patient with replies. If urgent, text me 619-549-9797.

My Market Watch:  Bonds Down – Pricing Worse. The 30-year bond was down -20bps resulting in pricing -0.250 worse from yesterday morning.  Tomorrow is the ADP Employment Report. Friday is the Jobs Report and so far based on what I’m reading we are expecting 170,000 new jobs to have been created in May. Remember, the number of jobs created is irrelevant…it’s more about what we expect versus the actual number that matters. If the number is much less or much higher than expected, then trading will really fly. Up until the report, traders can only predict what will happen and buy and sell according to their best guess, based on opinions and other data, like this blog (most traders on Wall Street read my blog to decide what to do…NOT).

Jobs Report Week; Bonds Up! Incredible Babies

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Incredible Babies!
These babies are amazing!  I have never seen anything like it. You have to check this out! They can really skate and dance!

Baby Roller Skating – Evian

Baby Dancing –

The Travel Mama’s Guide!
My wife, the Travel Mama, has officially launched her book about Vacationing with Babies and Children AND STAYING SANE.LAST DAY TO ENTER CONTEST to win a copy of the book PLUS a $250 Residence Inn by Marriott gift card. The book can be purchased at Amazon.com. Thanks!


My Market Watch:  Bonds Up – Pricing Improved. The 30-year bond is up this morning about +25bps. Actually bonds were doing worse this morning when I woke up…I rolled my eyes and turned over in bed. But by the time I got the kids off to school bonds had fully recovered and are now up significantly. Why?  Weak economic reports including the ISM which normally isn’t that impactful…but with so much volatility traders are looking for any indication of when to buy bonds.

This week is big…BIG. It’s Jobs Report week and Wednesday, Thursday and Friday each can have a significant impact. Specifically, the Jobs Report has the potential to move the markets but before I make a predication I need to read more and see how things look tomorrow. Of course, if I knew for sure what was going to happen I would be a professional poker player who gambled my obnoxious amount of money. I can tell you this…the Jobs Report indicates how many new jobs were created in May. If the report indicates a lot of new jobs, then traders consider that a good sign for the economy. Conversely, if there are less new jobs then traders will interpret the news as bad for the economy. If traders think the economy is stronger they will invest in stocks and pricing will get even worse. If they think the economy is weaker they will invest in bonds and pricing will get better.Equally important, the Fed will speak and presumably will address Bernanke’s statement about Quantitative Easing in mid-May. You know what I think they will say. If I’m right, then bond prices should move significantly higher. If I’m wrong, Lord help us all. More to come….

Don’t Let Your Locks Expire!  Bonds Will Eventually Come Back…. Read Me

My Schedule:  I have an appointment from 11:30a – 2:00p. Otherwise available….

Goodbye Brant – One Of Our Own

brantGoodbye To One Of Our Own
Brant Gniewek was a funder at Interbank…he was calm and patient with an entrepreneurial spirit. He inexplicably died just the other day at the young age of 30. Interbank is in mourning.

In 2009, the mother of Brant’s best friend died of Cancer. From that time until his untimely death he volunteered for fundraising. Brant’s legacy will be his efforts to raise money to help cover the cost of early detection. He came up with the idea to run 52 races to help 52 people. Brant ran his first-ever marathon in 2011 and another in 2012…

In December, the Windy City Times ran a story about Brant in which he was quoted,

I have been very passionate about fighting cancer, and beating it. As I was planning my races for 2013, I came up with the idea to run one race a week for one person to help raise money for them to fight and beat cancer. After playing around with the idea, I came up with 52 for 52 to fight Cancer. The original idea was to run 52 races and raise money, but that turned into starting my own charity: 52for52.org. My goal is to raise money to help cover the cost of early detection. This means covering the cost of any type of exam, full physicals, getting information out there for people to do self-exams, and more. This can be for anyone who needs an exam, cannot afford the exam, or does not have the health insurance to cover the cost. I will be looking to partner with hospitals and clinics as the charity grows.” – Brant Gniewek

Brant had run 18 races this year alone, and already was registered for 8 others. His family and friends will now continue his organization and run races in his memory. Donate to Brant’s 52-For-52 Fight Against Cancer.  Thank you Brant for your spirit…you will be missed….

My Schedule: Available until 4p and then DONE DONE DONE!

Market Watch:  Bonds Down – PRICES REMAIN. The 30-year bond is down this morning nearly -60bps but Interbank’s pricing is unchanged from yesterday. This is a great time to lock before they issue a mid-day reprice for the worse!
Don’t Let Your Locks Expire!  Bonds Will Eventually Come Back…. Read Me

ASM WANTED – AZ, NM, NV & UT

Logo InterbankInterbank is looking for an ASM – Area Sales Manager for AZ, NM, NV and UT.  This is a good opportunity…Interbank is one of the highest (if not the highest) producing bankers in the country. The position covers both wholesale and non-delegated correspondent lending.  Let me know if or someone you know is interested….

pgrossfield@interbankwholesale.com

Geek Villain In The Making

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Geek Villain In The Making
Most of the big search engines, email providers, social media sites, and other security-enhanced websites have a bounty reward program for geeks that figure out a way to hack the site. The logic is it’s better to reward the geek-hacker for hacking the site than to have them impose damage…it makes sense to me. In fact, this has become a popular hobby for many computer geeks and can provide an additional source of income. Rewards can go as high as $20,000 or more depending on the…
The Travel Mama’s Guide!
My wife, the Travel Mama, has officially launched her book about Vacationing with Babies and Children AND STAYING SANE.
ENTER TO WIN a copy of the book PLUS a $250 Residence Inn by Marriott gift card. Also, save 15% off when you order here through May 31 using this coupon code: DDTFQCU2. Starting in June you can buy the book at Amazon.com. Thanks!


…severity of the security breach. But PayPal is refusing to pay the computer geek who hacked their site and revealed a security breach. Why you ask? Because their geek-hacker reward policy requires the hacker be 18 years of age, and this hacker was only 17. Are you blanking kidding me?! Isn’t this how villains are created? This kid hacked PayPal…a financial institution and they are going to stiff him? They are just asking for trouble, am I right? If I was running PayPal I would throw money at this kid and then hire him to work for me. Watch out PayPal…you asked for it! Geek Villain In The Making.

My Schedule: I have an 11a meeting and another this afternoon around 1p.

My Market Watch: Bonds Up! The 30-year bond is playing in positive territory since yesterday and today…sweet! candles15Yesterday we picked up nearly +60bps and today another +10bps so far. Moreover, as of right now the bond is trading above a previously established floor…the Lobby in my picture. This is good news because traders might look at this as an opportunity to continue to buy bonds…at least until it reaches the next floor up. If the bond continues to be bought we might even see a price improvement later….
Don’t Let Your Locks Expire! Bonds Will Come Back…. Read Me

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Don’t Let Your Locks Expire!

Don’t Let Your Locks Expire. The Interbank Lock Desk is one of the best I’ve ever worked with. But with the market down this big in such a short period of time, don’t expect a whole lot of love. All lenders are now in a serious predicament on locked loans.
Make sure to:

  1. Extend your locks – do not let them expire!
  2. Upload your submission packages within 10 calendars days of your lock date.

If you let your lock expire, there will be no relief.

Bonds have now been on a significant downward spiral for the last 6 trading days in a row. Today alone we lost -134bps. c13 What’s more is there is no floor of support even in sight. What I mean is traders usually look to the past performance of bonds to help them decide when to buy. These indicators are called moving averages and when the bond is heading down they are called “floors of support.” They are referred to as floors of support because when the bond reaches the floor, traders usually look to buy…this makes the price of bonds increase and betters rates/pricing. But right now there is no floor…that’s why the bond just keeps selling off and down down down down down it goes.  What we need is a statement by someone at the Fed to reaffirm QE so we can reverse the trend….

Yes, Bonds Will Come Back…. Why do I think bonds will come back?  Because things are setting up for it in my opinion. Stock gains can’t last forever and eventually traders will start taking profits and selling off. Moreover, and again this is just my unprofessional opinion, the next negative economic report will have a bigger than usual impact because traders are looking for a reason to sell. And here’s the kicker…Bernanke and the Fed have not completely abandoned Quantitative Easing. They are still committed to buying mortgaged-backed securities for the remainder of the year. All that Bernanke said thus far is they are going to begin reducing the amount of buying…that’s a far cry from ditching it. I predict Bernanke will make a statement soon that reaffirms that commitment and when he does, bonds will sell like popovers at a Passover celebration. The big question is when, and to that I have no answer my friends. But I hope it’s soon!

Yes Bonds Will Come Back But Down Again Today; Thank You!

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THANK YOU!
You helped my family to raise nearly $1,000 to fight Cystic Fibrosis and my team raised nearly $10,000! I am deeply grateful, thank you! Pictured above is my family with Ashton and Lola (on the sides), our two neighbor friends who both have CF. Behind my wife is Sara, our neighbor friend who expressed her love by sticking her tongue out…you gotta love it! We’re at the CF Great Strides Walk in Del Mar last weekend. If you still want to donate, click here, thanks!
THE TRAVEL MAMAS’ GUIDE!
My wife, the Travel Mama, has officially launched her book about Vacationing with Babies and Children AND STAYING SANE.

ENTER TO WIN a copy of the book PLUS a $250 Residence Inn by Marriott gift card. Also, save 15% off when you order here through May 31 using this coupon code: DDTFQCU2. Starting in June you can buy the book at Amazon.com. Thanks!

My Market Watch: Yes, Bonds will come back…. Why do I think bonds will come back? Because things are setting up for it in my opinion. Stock gains can’t last forever and eventually traders will start taking profits and selling off. Moreover, and again this is just my unprofessional opinion, the next negative economic report will have a bigger than usual impact because traders are looking for a reason to sell. And here’s the kicker…Bernanke and the Fed have not completely abandoned Quantitative Easing. They are still committed to buying mortgaged-backed securities for the remainder of the year. All that Bernanke said thus far is they are going to begin reducing the amount of buying…that’s a far cry from ditching it. I predict Bernanke will make a statement soon that reaffirms that commitment and when he does, bonds will sell like popovers at a Passover celebration. The big question is when, and to that I have no answer my friends. But I hope it’s soon!

Bonds are now down -88bps as I type but it looks like traders are starting to buy bonds and so we might see some relief yet today…let’s hope so. As of now, I do not know where the next floor of support is…without this reverse in trading there is no way for me to know where the bleeding stops….

My Schedule: Available all day….

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Bond Blood Bath; Spock Versus Spock

colleen_bookcoverThe Travel Mama’s Guide! My wife, the Travel Mama, has officially launched her book about Vacationing with Babies and Children AND STAYING SANE.

ENTER TO WIN a copy of the book PLUS a $250 Residence Inn by Marriott gift card. Also, save 15% off when you order here through May 31 using this coupon code: DDTFQCU2. Starting in June you can buy the book at Amazon.com. Thanks! 🙂


My Schedule: I have a meeting in Carlsbad this morning at 10:30 and another meeting this afternoon.


Spock Versus Spock. Yeah, I’m a Star Trek geek…you got a problem with that? This new Audi spockversusspockcommercial starring Leonard Nimoy (the old Spock) and Zachary Quinto (the new Spock) is awe…wait-for-it…some…AWESOME! You’ve got two Spocks talking smack to each other, cursing by Leonard Nimoy, and an impromptu rendition of the “The Ballad of Bilbo Baggins.” Old Spock Versus New Spock In The Greatest Car Commercial Ever.


My Market Watch: Bond Blood Bath! Bonds are DOWN…AGAIN…HOLY BLOOD BATH BATMAN. Yesterday some lenders repriced for nearly 1.000 worse. Interbank adjusted only 0.250 so our pricing was still competitive by comparison. But this morning with more negative bond activity our pricing dropped another 0.375. In my graphic below you can see how the bond tried to climb early this morning and then dropped all the way to the garage where it finally stopped and retreated slightly. Lord help us if the bond sells below the garage…the next floor down could create another huge drop in pricing.

Yesterday’s decline was due to Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke’s comments about tapering off Quantitative Easing as soon as next month. quantitive Easing is the Fed’s policy to buy mortgaged back securities and this practice has maintained our low rates for a long time. Put another way, QE has created our artificial market for low rates we’ve all enjoyed. Up until yesterday Bernanke had been unwavering in his commitment to QE…he had been saying forever that the Fed would maintain its policy to purchase MBS through 2013. This gave traders on Wall Street good reason to buy bonds which kept the price low. Low bond prices is why we’ve had low rates and great pricing. Only a month ago he mentioned the Fed might start scaling back the buying. Now, for the first time, he has stepped out onto the ledge. To be fair, Bernanke said as early as next month they would begin reducing the amount of buying, not eliminate it. But all traders heard was a statement contrary to Bernanke’s traditional gospel…let the blood bath begin! My graphic below illustrates what has been happening this morning…bond prices started out high as traders tried to take profits from yesterday’s bath. But then the bond started selling off again dropping the price to the garage…thank goodness for the garage because traders starting buying bonds again. We’re now trading between the Lobby and Garage and we must all pray to the Universe the bond doesn’t fall below the garage…I’m not sure where the next floor is below the garage. The bottom chart highlights the latest market down-trend, courtesy of MBS Highway.

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Look Out Below! Natural Born Killers

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The Travel Mama’s Guide!  My wife, the Travel Mama, has officially launched her book about Vacationing with Babies and Children AND STAYING SANE.

ENTER TO WIN a copy of the book PLUS a $250 Residence Inn by Marriott gift card. Also, save 15% off when you order here through May 31 using this coupon code: DDTFQCU2. Starting in June you can buy the book at Amazon.com. Thanks!  🙂
Natural Born Killers.  A tornado is not a natural born killer…it is not mindful of what it does…it does not have a conscience…the victims simply got in its way. My thoughts and prayers are still focused on those victims. In my visits yesterday and several phone calls throughout the day, the topic of the Oklahoma City tornadoes and victims was heart-heavily discussed. Such tragedy. One discussion I thought was particularly interesting was the concept of Mother Nature, in the form of a tornado like in Oklahoma, as a natural born killer designed to destroy. naturalbornkillersDon’t misunderstand the discussion…never was it suggested that it was by design people were killed so please don’t take offense. My colleague only analogized that Mother Nature can be a devastating destructive force, and this is a natural thing. The discussion then turned to the topic of the Quentin Tarantino movie Natural Born Killers in which a psychotic pair played by Woody Harrelson and Juliette Lewis go on a killing spree. In the movie Harrelson’s character compares himself to a lion who kills a zebra…it doesn’t feel bad about it…it’s natural. Of course, the lion is killing for food and a tornado doesn’t kill at all. Rather, it is simply a form of nature that carves out a path. What I found interesting was the argument that a child brought up in a hateful environment, like in Al Qaeda families, is trained to hate and bring violence upon the hated. Hate recycles hate. She argued that a man brought up in this environment doesn’t feel bad about killing…he is the lion or like Woody in the movie. I suppose that was the whole point of Tarantino’s movie. At least a lion kills and the death has meaning…it provides sustenance. And a tornado’s destruction has positive effects on the land over time…it is function of nature. But no such argument can be made for human killers…I argue there is nothing natural about it…it is pure weakness. As I said, my discussions yesterday were intense and heavy…but the focus was always on the victims and their families…I continue to pray for them….

My Market Watch:   LOOK OUT BELOW!  Bonds are down again. At first I thought bonds would do well this morning as they started out climbing…I was stoked. But then it started dropping fast, presumably as a result of Bernanke’s statements. From what I am digesting this morning his statements were not clear on his commitment to quantitative easing (the Fed’s policy of continued massive purchasing of bonds) and that was enough to motivate traders to sell off. So, traders that bought bonds at a low price yesterday took the profits this morning and sold at the highest price they could get. As a result of all the selling the bond price has dropped down -90bps on the day already. This in turn has moved our pricing to where it was yesterday morning…up 0.250 and now down 0.250. And the bond is continuing to drop now falling below the floors of support…I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mid-day reprice for the worse very soon…if my Mom asked if I should lock today I would say yes. We need something to turn it around…somebody throw us a bone please!

My Schedule:  I have a meeting in Carlsbad this morning at 10:30 and another meeting this afternoon.

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