Phil Grossfield's Blog

A LITTLE EXTRA…

Category Archives: Economic News

Ending To Game Of Thrones – When To Call Me

First, this might be a spoiler so if you haven’t watched it yet on HBO I encourage you to do so, but don’t read any further here. In my opinion, Game of Thrones may be the best series ever, maybe with the exception of Breaking Bad. I just finished watching the entire GOT series for the second time in anticipation of the new series entitled House Of The Dragon which just started.  That said, MANY people were upset with GOT’s ending after 8 seasons, including me. The main consensus was that the writers rushed the last season and failed to properly develop Daenerys Targaryen’s character before she went completely dark and torched King’s Landing. HOWEVER, after watching the series again, I now feel better about it having realized they did provide several hints to her destructive nature leading into the final season. Just before she goes bonkers her first dragon was murdered and she lost half her army fighting the Night King. Then, shortly thereafter her second dragon was murdered and her best friend was beheaded right in front of her by Cersei Lannister. At this point she understandably lost her blank. So, although I wish they had revealed her monstrous character more profoundly and earlier, you can rest easy knowing I’ve forgiven the writers. Now, on to House Of The Dragon!.

When To Call Me For A Loan – Reasons to Use WBL

  1. Your Merchant needs more money than you can get approved for an MCA, and they have equity in real estate.
  2. You funded an MCA loan for the Merchant and they want a second loan for more cash out, and they have equity in real estate.
  3. The Merchant was declined for an MCA loan for any reason, and they have equity in real estate. We can overcome just about any reason they were declined:
    • Declined because of poor cash flow or declining deposits.
    • Declined because of too many defaults.
    • Declined because of too many open MCA loans.
    • Declined because FICO score too low or other derogatory credit.
    • Declined because they haven’t been in business long enough or their industry in unacceptable.

Resource Links, Process & Loan Intake Instructions

Appointment Link – Get On Phil’s Calendar.

White Label Marketing Flyers Using Your Logo & Contact Information.

Flyer For Independent Sales Organization – ISO — Phil Grossfield

Email the Loan Opportunity To Me.  Send me (1) an Application with all the Merchant/Borrower’s information including their mobile number and email address, (2) a full description of the real estate (download this Excel REO Schedule), and (3) a minimum 3-months business bank statements (6 months is better if you have it).

To Qualify For A Business Loan.  (1) Equity in Real Estate – we’ll utilize virtually any type and combination of real estate in any condition, and (2) Revenues – sufficient to support/afford the loan payments.  If we have these two, we can overcome just about any hurdle…

Process.  After I send the loan opportunity to our Intake Department, they’ll send me feedback on the real estate collateral, affordability, and any other considerations. On the same day or next, I’ll present potential loan structures to our Market Clearance team for guidance. Then you and I will discuss and decide what to Offer your Merchant Borrower. If accepted, then we’ll send the an authorization form and formally submit the loan.

Always Ask Merchant/Borrower If They Have Real Estate – What Real Estate Will Be Acceptable As Collateral?

Dating At 14; Survey Results MCA Declines

My son went on his first date this weekend.  He and this girl have been going to school with each other for years. In fact, they were the lead roles in a school play back in grade school.  Anyway, they’ve been flirting for a while and he mustered up the courage to ask her to be his girlfriend…I guess he just walked up to her in school and asked.  She initially rejected the idea saying she just wanted to be friends, but the next day she reconsidered and asked him if the offer was still on the table.  The next thing ya know they’re going to a movie and getting Cane’s together.  I gotta say, it’s pretty cool…he’s way ahead of me when I was that age…I didn’t get up the courage to ask a girl out until my freshman year in college.  My wife and I did a good job…he’s got that right balance of humility, respect, and confidence. In fact, he’s beaming with confidence but why shouldn’t he be?  He’s bigger, stronger, faster, and smarter than I ever was.

Survey Results – Reasons An MCA Lender Declines A Merchant & WBL’s Ability To Overcome

I sent this survey only to my approved ISOs/Brokers. There were 43 responses to the question within a week or so. FYI, a few of the responses included reasons the MCA loan failed to fund, like the Merchant didn’t provide the requested documentation, but this implies the MCA was initially approved so it doesn’t really answer the question I was asking. 

Thanks to all who responded…here are the results in order of the most common responses:

1  Poor Cash Flow – not enough deposits/revenues in general or for a specific industry.

  • WBL has a subsidy program to lower payments and an Interest Reserve program to use loan proceeds to cover the payments if necessary. Put another way, lack of cash flow DOES NOT RESTRICT WBL FROM LENDING.

2  Declining Deposits/Revenues. – three or more consecutive months of notable decline

  • Although WBL would like an explanation why deposits/revenues are declining, as long as they are sufficient to support the debt, we’re still lending.  That is, a Merchant with declining deposits/revenues is PERFECT FOR WBL.

3  Defaults – too many on past loans.

  • If there is equity in real estate and the Merchant can illustrate they can afford the payments, then defaults on other loans IS A CHALLENGE WBL CAN OVERCOME.

4  Stacked MCAs. – too many open MCAs; overleveraged

  • WBL is not an MCA lender. Rather, we make loans to businesses securing real estate as collateral. That means we do not count in the stack of MCA loans. Moreover, having multiple MCA loans is a good thing for us because our ISO’s come to us to take out the MCA loans to lower the Merchant’s daily or weekly payments. Not only do we make a large loan to these Merchants, by paying off existing MCA debt we put the Merchant in a much stronger financial position, and, if needed, it makes more room for the ISO to make more loans.  So, STACKED MCA DEBT IS IDEAL FOR A WBL TAKEOUT!

5  Borrowers’ Picture On DL Too Ugly – no, this one isn’t real…it’s my way of sneaking in a little humor.

  • DEAL-BREAKER? 😜

6  Low Credit Score, BKs, Foreclosures, & Judgements

  • We’ve been known to lend on a Fico score as low as 470 and we’re more interested in the equity of the real estate collateral and the Merchant’s ability to afford the loan payments, so most of the time, this is NOT AN ISSUE FOR WBL.

7  Time In Business Too Short – for a new business or they haven’t been doing it long enough.

  • As long as the Merchant has sufficient revenues to support the debt, the length of time in the business bears little weight.  For a start-up company, signed contracts for future revenue can be adequate to qualify and until the revenue is realized, we can put in place an Interest Reserve to cover payments.  So, time in business DOES NOT RESTRICT WBL FROM LENDING.

8  High Risk Industry – I don’t know what this means but there were a few responses.

  • Simply put, WBL DOES NOT DISCRIMINATE BASED ON THE INDUSTRY.  There are some exceptions to this rule, for example, WBL does not lend to the cannabis industry or religious institutions.

Resource Links, Process & Loan Intake Instructions

Appointment Link – Get On Phil’s Calendar.

White Label Marketing Flyers Using Your Logo & Contact Information.

Flyer For Independent Sales Organization – ISO — Phil Grossfield

Email the Loan Opportunity To Me.  Send me (1) an Application with all the Merchant/Borrower’s information including their mobile number and email address, (2) a full description of the real estate (download this Excel REO Schedule), and (3) a minimum 3-months business bank statements (6 months is better if you have it).

To Qualify For A Business Loan.  (1) Equity in Real Estate – we’ll utilize virtually any type and combination of real estate in any condition, and (2) Revenues – sufficient to support/afford the loan payments.  If we have these two, we can overcome just about any hurdle…

Process.  After I send the loan opportunity to our Intake Department, they’ll send me feedback on the real estate collateral, affordability, and any other considerations. On the same day or next, I’ll present potential loan structures to our Market Clearance team for guidance. Then you and I will discuss and decide what to Offer your Merchant Borrower. If accepted, then we’ll send the an authorization form and formally submit the loan.

Always Ask Merchant/Borrower If They Have Real Estate – What Real Estate Will Be Acceptable As Collateral?

Tell Me About It, Stud

Tell Me About It, Stud

I was absolutely and categorically infatuated with Sandy, or should I say the recently departed Olivia Newton-John after a 30-year battle with breast cancer.  What can I say…she had me at “Tell me about it, Stud“.  I was 12 when I saw Grease for the first time and it wasn’t long before I had a poster of her on my teenage wall. To be fair, I also had a poster of Bo Derek and Farrah Fawcett, but it was Sandy I was hopelessly devoted to. She was gorgeous, sweet, and, well, ELECTRIFYING!

Real Estate Is The Key

How hard is it to simply ask every Merchant if they have real estate? For the love of all things holy in this land, ask them! Every time!  If your merchant has real estate, then you instantaneously have an opportunity for a large commission. Why? Because we set the loan amount based on the equity in real estate, not based on the Merchant’s revenues. Our average loan amount is $500,000 and our average commission payout is 4-5 points. Make it part of your routine to always ask the merchant if they have real estate and while you’re at it, find out what they think it’s worth and what they owe on it. Then email me or text/call met at (212) 271-8267 direct. You can still get them an MCA loan and simultaneously apply for a loan with us…read about that here. And I don’t care if they were turned down for an MCA loan…they can still qualify with us.  Let’s go! 

Previously:  I Miss Coaching Baseball – Earn Double Commissions  |  No Payment & Subsidized Payment Business Loans

The Market…My Take

The bond market is what I typically watch because it has a direct correlation to the real estate market. Although all markets including the stock market impact lenders, nothing impacts the market more than bonds.  And since bonds hate inflation and directly affect interest rates, it’s particularly interesting to see what’s happening in todays environment.  As of late, interest rates, inflation, and consumer demand all declined…that’s a good thing. So, it appears the Fed’s strategy of raising rates is actually starting to work…soon stores should be putting things on sale. Will the raise rates again this month?  Maybe not in light of recent reports…we’ll have to wait and see…
Previously:  Will The Fed Hike Rates Again? Maybe…probably  |  How Does Raising Fed Interest Rates Battle Inflation?  | Good Time To Hire Salespersons

Resource Links, Process & Loan Intake Instructions

Appointment Link – Get On Phil’s Calendar.

White Label Marketing Flyers Using Your Logo & Contact Information.

Flyer For Independent Sales Organization – ISO — Phil Grossfield

Email the Loan Opportunity To Me.  Send me (1) an Application with all the Merchant/Borrower’s information including their mobile number and email address, (2) a full description of the real estate (download this Excel REO Schedule), and (3) a minimum 3-months business bank statements (6 months is better if you have it).

To Qualify For A Business Loan(1) Equity in Real Estate – we’ll utilize virtually any type and combination of real estate in any condition, and (2) Revenues – sufficient to support/afford the loan payments.  If we have these two, we can overcome just about any hurdle…

Process.  After I send the loan opportunity to our Intake Department, they’ll send me feedback on the real estate collateral, affordability, and any other considerations. On the same day or next, I’ll present potential loan structures to our Market Clearance team for guidance. Then you and I will discuss and decide what to Offer your Merchant Borrower. If accepted, then we’ll send the an authorization form and formally submit the loan.

Always Ask Merchant/Borrower If They Have Real Estate – What Real Estate Will Be Acceptable As Collateral?

MY PREVIOUS POSTS

I Miss Coaching Baseball – Earn Double Commissions  Share My Car?  Consolidate Stacked MCAs/   |  No Payment & Subsidized Payment Business Loans – July 28, 2022  |  Why Marry Me In The First Place? July 25, 2022    

I Miss Coaching Baseball – Earn Double Commissions

I Miss Coaching Baseball.  Prior to Covid I coached 7 years in Little League for my son.  My father-in-law (shown with me and my son to the right) was my assistant coach. We taught and motivated the kids to play at a high level, but more importantly to have fun doing it.  Sounds easy enough but there were a lot of Dad’s who were coaching for themselves rather than for the kids…too much yelling and seriousness reminiscent of Coach Turner in The Bad News Bears.  Our philosophy was to ensure the kids had a good time so they wanted to keep playing baseball rather than sit in front of a computer. When Covid hit they shut the league down and my son lost interest. And just like that my career as a coach was over. I miss the fields. 

Double Commissions

First, we are not an MCA lender…we’re a commercial business lender securing loans with real estate which means our loans don’t count in the stack of MCA loans. But ISOs send us a lot of business…here’s just one of many reasons why.  Let’s assume your Merchant needs a large loan fast.  

With an MCA loan, you get the money fast but you’re limited in loan size based on revenues. But WBL loans are based on the equity in real estate so our loan amounts average $500,000 and go up to $2m. The rub is that our loans take longer to close because we have to get a title and valuation report on the real estate.  

SO THIS IS WHAT YOU DO…get the Merchant an MCA loan now for whatever loan amount you can get approved, AND SIMULTANEOUSLY, submit to WBL for a much larger loan amount. Your Merchant will be happy because they’ll get some funds quickly and in just a few weeks they’ll get a whole lot more…WIN-WIN!  In the meantime, you’ll earn a commission on the MCA loan quickly and another commission from WBL when our loan closes.  HERE’S WHAT I NEED YOU TO DO: 

(1)  Look through your recently funded MCAs to see if your Merchants have real estate because if they do, there’s another potential commission just waiting for you!  (2)  Look for MCAs you lost because the loan was not enough for the Merchant…if they have real estate there’s a potential commission just waiting for you!  (3)  Look for MCA loans you lost because the Merchant was already stacked…if they have real estate there’s a potential commission just waiting for you!  (4)  Look for MCA loans you lost for some other reason…if they have real estate we can overcome almost any challenge, and guess what…yep, there’s a potential commission just waiting for you!  One last thing…WHEN SPEAKING TO A MERCHANT FOR THE FIRST TIME, ALWAYS ASK IF THEY HAVE REAL ESTATE…ALWAYS!  If they do, I’m your first call…

Previously:  NO PAYMENT & SUBSIDIZED PAYMENT BUSINESS LOANS

The Market…My Take

Will The Fed Hike Rates Again?  Maybe…probably.  The Fed raised their Fed Funds Rate several times in 2022 to battle inflation (to learn more about that, read this).  But whether the recent rate hikes are working to lower the prices of consumer goods is yet to be seen.  In virtually every category prices have gone up and I don’t know about you, but I haven’t seen any relief.  Until stores start lowering prices, you can count on the Fed to continue to raise the Fed Funds rate.  My friends in the residential mortgage business have gotten excited to see mortgage rates stabilize and even reduce a little in the last couple of weeks. But I think this is simply a reaction to some of the big players lowering their rates to buy the market and the smaller guys lowering their rates to try and compete. So from my perspective I don’t think that’s any indication of the current war on inflation.  How does this affect the business loan market?  Just like everyone else. You can expect business loan rate to follow suit and increase.  Let me know your thoughts on this subject…I love hearing your opinions on the markets… 

Previously:  How Does Raising Fed Interest Rates Battle Inflation?  | Good Time To Hire Salespersons

Resource Links, Process & Loan Intake Instructions

Appointment Link – Get On Phil’s Calendar.

White Label Marketing Flyers Using Your Logo & Contact Information.

Flyer For Independent Sales Organization – ISO — Phil Grossfield

Email the Loan Opportunity To Me.  Send me (1) an Application with all the Merchant/Borrower’s information including their mobile number and email address, (2) a full description of the real estate (download this Excel REO Schedule), and (3) a minimum 3-months business bank statements (6 months is better if you have it).

To Qualify For A Business Loan.  (1) Equity in Real Estate – we’ll utilize virtually any type and combination of real estate in any condition, and (2) Revenues – sufficient to support/afford the loan payments.  If we have these two, we can overcome just about any hurdle…

Process.  After I send the loan opportunity to our Intake Department, they’ll send me feedback on the real estate collateral, affordability, and any other considerations. On the same day or next, I’ll present potential loan structures to our Market Clearance team for guidance. Then you and I will discuss and decide what to Offer your Merchant Borrower. If accepted, then we’ll send the an authorization form and formally submit the loan.

Always Ask Merchant/Borrower If They Have Real Estate – What Real Estate Will Be Acceptable As Collateral?

Share My Car?  Consolidate Stacked MCAs

Sharing My Car With A Teenager – I Don’t Recommend It.  My daughter just learned to drive and now I’m effectively sharing my car with her.  My wife won’t let her drive her car, and yes, my wife is in charge.  And I’m not buying my daughter a car because if I did, then I would have no leverage to get her to do what I want. Therefore, she will use MY car IF I give her permission.  Truth be told, I don’t want to share a car with her, but this is a terrible time to buy myself a new car since inventories are way down and prices are way up. So, I guess I’m stuck sharing for now, and I have to say…I don’t like it, not one bit. 

WBL Products…My Highlights & Guidance

  • CONSOLIDATE STACKED MCAs.  First, a merchant with lots of open MCAs is still qualified for a loan as long as they can illustrate (1) there is equity in real estate they can pledge as collateral, and (2) they can afford the payments. Consolidating a merchant’s MCA debt is a great plan because our payments are usually lower, payments can be monthly with an interest only loan, and it opens the door for future cash advances.  Remember, we base our loan amounts on the available equity in property, not on revenues alone.  This usually results in higher loan amounts with higher commissions. 
     
  • NO PAYMENT & SUBSIDIZED PAYMENT BUSINESS LOANS  |  Always Ask Merchant/Borrower If They Have Real Estate – What Real Estate Will Be Acceptable As Collateral?  |  

The Market…My Take

  • How Does Raising Fed Interest Rates Battle Inflation?  Simply put, the Fed raises rates to slow consumer spending so prices will fall…let me explain. The Fed controls the Fed Funds Rate which they have been raising in the hopes of indirectly changing consumers’ spending behavior…your spending behavior. By increasing the Fed Funds rate, they directly impact banks by making it more expensive for them to borrower money…yes, banks borrow money from each other all the time (but that’s another topic). If it costs more for a bank to borrow, guess who they pass that added expense to? Yep, it’s you! That makes it more expensive for us regular hard-working folks to borrow money. If it’s more expensive for us to borrow money, then we’ll borrow less, and when we borrow less, we spend less. That makes sense, right? So when we spend less as a community, then demand will fall. When demand falls, prices will fall to encourage more spending. Stores will start putting goods on sale, and so on. Simple. 
  • How Does Raising Fed Interest Rates Battle Inflation?  | Good Time To Hire Salespersons

Resource Links, Process & Loan Intake Instructions

  • Appointment Link – Get On Phil’s Calendar.
  • White Label Marketing Flyers Using Your Logo & Contact Information.
  • Flyer For Independent Sales Organization – ISO — Phil Grossfield
  • Email the Loan Opportunity To Me.  Send (1) an Application with all the Merchant/Borrower’s information including their mobile number and email address, (2) a full description of the real estate or download this Excel REO Schedule , and (3) a minimum 3-months business bank statements (6 months is better if you have it).
  • To Qualify For A Business Loan.  (1) Equity in Real Estate – we’ll utilize virtually any type and combination of real estate in any condition, and (2) Revenues – sufficient to support/afford the loan payments – we’ll need 3-6 months of business bank statements to see what revenues are deposited.  If we have these two, we can overcome just about any hurdle…
  • Process.  After I send the loan opportunity to our Intake Department (see above), I’ll receive preliminary feedback on the real estate collateral, affordability, and any other considerations. On the same day or next, I’ll present to our Market Clearance team for loan structure guidance. Then you and I will discuss and decide what to Offer the Merchant Borrower. If accepted, then we’ll send the Borrower Merchant an authorization form and formally submit the loan.

MY PREVIOUS POSTS.  

No Payment & Subsidized Payment Business Loans

My Dad was a couple weeks shy of 80 years before he passed last week. He battled Alzheimer’s for the better of 20 years…the last 5 years were extremely challenging. His unyielding positive attitude was Dad’s best characteristic and he never lost it despite the efforts of the viscous disease. He was (and remains) my moral compass and set an example of the highest work ethic which is what made him the #1 salesperson for 40 years with Champion Products sportswear. With his guidance I became a record-setting salesperson myself and came to appreciate the dedication required to achieve that level of success.

I feel like I joined a club for those who have lost a parent, and it’s the worst club in the world. I was lucky to have him in my life for as long as I did.

WBL Products…My Guidance & Highlights

  • NO PAYMENT & SUBSIDIZED PAYMENT LOANS. We make loans with no payments for a period of time or for the entire term of the loan. We also have subsidy programs to reduce the loan payments to ease the pressure on a growing business. Given equity in real estate as collateral, we can structure a loan that makes sense for the current and future economics of the Merchant/Borrower.
  • Always Ask Merchant/Borrower If They Have Real Estate. If your Merchant Borrower has equity in real estate, then WBL should be your first call as a potential business lender. July 25, 2022.
  • What Real Estate Will Be Acceptable As Collateral? WBL will accept virtually ANY real estate type…and, we can use multiple properties together for one loan by cross-collateralizing to max the lendable equity. July 25, 2022
  • To Qualify For A Business Loan. (1) Equity in Real Estate – we’ll utilize virtually any type and combination of real estate in any condition, and (2) Revenues – sufficient to support/afford the loan payments – we’ll need 3-6 months of business bank statements to see what revenues are deposited. If we have these two, we can overcome just about any hurdle…

The Market…My Take

  • How Does Raising Fed Interest Rates Battle Inflation? Simply put, the Fed raises rates to slow consumer spending so prices will fall…let me explain. The Fed controls the Fed Funds Rate which they have been raising in the hopes of indirectly changing consumers’ spending behavior…your spending behavior. By increasing the Fed Funds rate, they directly impact banks by making it more expensive for them to borrower money…yes, banks borrow money from each other all the time (but that’s another topic). If it costs more for a bank to borrow, guess who they pass that added expense to? Yep, it’s you! That makes it more expensive for us regular hard-working folks to borrow money. If it’s more expensive for us to borrow money, then we’ll borrow less, and when we borrow less, we spend less. That makes sense, right? So when we spend less as a community, then demand will fall. When demand falls, prices will fall to encourage more spending. Stores will start putting goods on sale, and so on. Simple.

Resource Links, Process & Loan Intake Instructions

  • Appointment Link – Get On Phil’s Calendar.
  • Flyer For Independent Sales Organization – ISO — Phil Grossfield
  • Email the Loan Opportunity To Me. Send (1) an Application with all the Merchant/Borrower’s information including their mobile number and email address, (2) a full description of the real estate or download this Excel REO Schedule , and (3) a minimum 3-months business bank statements (6 months is better if you have it).
  • Process. After I send the loan opportunity to our Intake Department (see above), I’ll receive preliminary feedback on the real estate collateral, affordability, and any other considerations. On the same day or next, I’ll present to our Market Clearance team for loan structure guidance. Then you and I will discuss and decide what to Offer the Merchant Borrower. If accepted, then we’ll send the Borrower Merchant an authorization form and formally submit the loan.

Why Marry Me In The First Place?

Me and Colleen

What I’ve been trying to figure out all this time is why she would agree to marry me in the first place…and no, I wasn’t rich.  A few days ago I celebrated my 21st wedding anniversary. We’ve made it work but not without challenges along the way…it definitely takes commitment…and now we’re stronger than ever. Anyway, to celebrate we went to a great place here in Scottsdale called Postino’s. Unbeknownst to us, my soon to be 86-year old mother called ahead and arranged to pay our bill…how nice was that?!  And, our 17-year old daughter picked us up.  Yeah, I got it pretty good, and I know it…

The Market…My Take

Good Time To Hire Salespersons.  In case you hadn’t noticed, the residential mortgage industry is in a free-fall. This is the direct result of the Fed’s recent rate hikes to battle inflation which has pushed residential mortgage rates from <3% into the 6% range. Residential mortgage lenders and brokers have been dropping like flies and with it comes an influx of talented and experienced mortgage salespersons looking for work. So, if you were looking to expand your business, this is an excellent time to find salespersons with a background in real estate secured originations.  I recommend advertising on Rob Chrisman’s Daily Commentary or Lender News

WBL Products…My Guidance & Highlights

Always Ask The Merchant/Borrower If They Have Real Estate.  If the Merchant Borrower has equity in real estate, then I should be your first call as a potential business lender. The real estate doesn’t even need to be owned by your Merchant/Borrower…it could be their family’s property or even a friends.  Just understand that anyone putting up their property as collateral for the loan must sign as a guarantor.

What Real Estate Will Be Acceptable?  WBL will accept virtually ANY real estate type whether it be raw land or a lot, industrial property, or a commercial property including office buildings, malls, hospitals, golf courses…even gas stations. In addition, WBL will accept all residential properties – houses, condos, townhomes, vacation homes…even a primary residence in most states.  Moreover, the property can be in any condition…even mid-construction. It all comes down to the lendable equity. And don’t forget, we can use multiple properties together for one loan by cross-collateralizing to max the lendable equity.

To Qualify For A Business Loan.  (1) Equity in Real Estate – we’ll utilize virtually any type and combination of real estate in any condition, and (2) Revenues – sufficient to support/afford the loan payments – we’ll need 3-6 months of business bank statements to see what revenues are deposited.  If we have these two, we can overcome just about any hurdle…

Appointments, Process & Loan Intake Instructions

Appointment Link – Get On Phil’s Calendar.

Email the Loan Opportunity To Me.  Send (1) an Application with all the Merchant/Borrower’s information, (2) a full description of the real estate or download this Excel REO Schedule , and (3) a minimum 3-months business bank statements (6 months is better if you have it).

Process.  After I send the loan opportunity to our Intake Department (see above), I’ll receive preliminary feedback on the real estate collateral, affordability, and any other considerations. Then you and I will discuss and decide what to Offer the Merchant Borrower. If accepted, then we’ll send the Borrower Merchant an authorization form and formally submit the loan.

Just Begin

At some point, everything’s gonna go south on you and you’re going to say, this is it. This is how I end. Now you can either accept that, or you can get to work. That’s all it is. You just begin.

matt-damon-martian

Clinton May Have Lost Popular Vote

Clinton May Have Lost Popular Vote. I hear a lot about how Clinton won the popular vote by 2,000,000 and how our system is screwed up with the electoral process. It’s been discussed in my circles ad nauseam and I make the argument that’s it’s irrelevant.  Let me explain.
Popular Vote versus Electoral Vote – Explained. The popular vote is simply the number of Americans voting for a particular candidate. But the electoral vote is much more complicated. It’s actually the House members of each state that cast the actual votes based on how the citizens of that state vote. Each state has 2 U.S. Senators and a number of House of Representatives based on the state’s population. For example, California has 2 Senators and 53 House members for a total of 55 votes because its population is huge compared to Arizona who has 2 senators and 7 House members for a total of 9. The idea was to balance the voting power to the smaller states.California has about 40 million people and Arizona has about 7 million. Each member of the House represents about 725,000 people in California (40m/55) whereas each member of the House in Arizona represents about 775,000 (7m/9). Many think this it’s unfair that the candidate that won the popular vote should get trumped by the winner of the electoral vote (pun intended).
Why It’s Irrelevant.  It just doesn’t matter – trust me! Look, if we used a popular vote instead of the electoral vote everything would be different and there’s no way to know how the results would change. First, the number of people voting would change dramatically. Many people in California didn’t vote because they felt it was a waste of time since it was a forgone conclusion that the state would go democratic and all 55 electoral votes would go to Clinton. Same thing in Arizona…I know a lot of people that simply didn’t vote because they didn’t feel there was a chance in hell the state would vote anything other than republican and all 9 of its electoral votes would go to Trump. Since all the electoral votes go to one or the other, people stayed home. I read that nearly 100 million didn’t even vote! Many argue that a much higher percentage of people in the country would vote if we moved away from the electoral process.
Second, and just as important, the strategies employed by the candidates would have been strikingly different. That is, Trump and Clinton would have strategized and executed a plan that looked nothing like their actual campaigns over the last 500 days. Using my example above, Trump would have undoubtedly spent more time in California and Clinton would have spent more time in Arizona. But EVERYTHING would be different. It’s like saying we’re going to change the rules of baseball where each stolen base is worth 1 run…recruiting would be greatly skewed towards fast base runners and the strategy behind every game plan would be completely different…coaches would be more interested in getting singles by fast base runners to score more runs and catchers with strong arms would be in higher demand.
The point is, if we used the popular vote, the overall strategies of the campaigns, where they visited, the speeches, the advertisements, everything would be different. Clinton may have lost by 20 million or won by 50 million…there’s no way to know. So when anyone makes an argument that Trump would have lost or Clinton should have won, it’s nonsense. Unless we actually change the system, we’ll never know the true impact to the election results.

Why Bonds Fell – The Assumptions & Uncertainty Of Trumpenomics

trumpWHY DID BONDS FALL?  THE ASSUMPTIONS & UNCERTAINTY OF TRUMPENOMICS.  Let me see if I can give you some talking points with your clients on why bonds fell so dramatically since the election results were announced.  The main concern is rising inflation.  Bonds hate inflation so when it’s on the rise traders will sell-off bonds. The truth is, nobody really knows what Trump will do except Trump himself, and I don’t think he really has a definitive plan at this point. I believe he approaches these sorts of issues with the mentality that whatever it is he’ll make sure it’s fixed…that he’ll figure it out…just like he figures out how to fix issues within his businesses. There is no room in his mind for failure…he’ll just get it done. But based on his comments made during the campaign, we expect him to (1) repeal free trade agreements with other countries and (2) lower taxes while simultaneously increasing government spending for infrastructure, i.e., airports. This would undoubtedly influence an accelerated change in the Fed’s monetary policy.
  1. Elimination Of Free Trade Agreements.  Per the Constitution, Trump as President will have the authority to negotiate trade agreements with foreign countries. He has said that he intends to repeal the free-trade agreements that are currently in place because they allow other countries to take advantage of the U.S.  These free-trade agreements have allowed countries to trade without heavy regulations or tariffs (taxes).  So, if Trump repeals these trade agreements, then products that we purchase from other countries will be more expensive because of the newly placed regs and tariffs. When products become more expensive it’s called rising inflation, and Bonds hate inflation. Therefore, traders have sold off bonds because they expect rising inflation if Trump goes through with eliminating free trade agreements. When traders sell off bonds, our rates/pricing worsen.
  2. Lowering Taxes While Increasing Government Spending.  Trump promised to lower taxes while simultaneously increasing government spending for infrastructure, i.e., airports, etc. So, the question economists have been asking is where is this money going to come from to build infrastructure if we’re going to lower taxes?  The only logical source, unless Trump knows something we don’t, is that we will have to borrow the money and increase our debt.  We currently owe about $14 trillion which is about 76% of our GDP. Think of the debt-to-GDP ratio in mortgage terms we understand, “DTI.”  So, our DTI if you will is about 76%.  I know that sounds like a lot since we work in mortgages where the cut-off is typically 50%. But compared to other countries, our DTI of debt-to-GDP is relatively low. For example, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Canada all have higher debt-to-GDP than the U.S.  And Japan has a whopping 260% debt-to-GDP…way more than 3 times the U.S.  Because our bond debt is relatively low compared to our GDP, our bonds look attractive to other countries.  But if we increase that debt to raise capital for infrastructure, then the debt-to-GDP will go up making our bonds less attractive.  When bonds are less attractive, the price will be worse. When traders anticipate the price of bonds being worse, they sell. When traders sell off bonds, our rates/pricing worsen.
  3. fedThe Fed Will Accelerate The Reduction Of Buying Bonds.  The Fed had been buying bonds for the last several years in order to keep interest rates low. It’s what is often referred to as “the artificial market.”  Ideally, the Fed should not be involved in buying bonds…the free markets should dictate when bonds are bought and sold. But the Fed employed monetary policy of buying droves of bonds to help out our flailing economy during the recent depression. For this reason our rates/pricing have been artificially low for almost the entirety of the Obama administration. The problem is that this is not sustainable. At some point, and many argue we’re way overdue (including me), the Fed needs to back off and let the free market operate. That’s why you’re hearing all this news about the Fed raising interest rates.  Traders know that eventually rates will increase and the Fed will reduce its involvement to buy bonds. But that timeline was expected to go on for years and therefore simply raising interest rates is in itself not enough to influence traders to sell off bonds.  But now that Trump is going to be President, and we expect him to raise our debt-to-GDP (DTI – see #2 above), the Fed will likely accelerate the reduction of buying bonds.  Some argue the Fed might have to stop altogether after the 2017 year!  That fear is what caused traders to sell off bonds. When traders sell off bonds, our rates/pricing worsen.

    To take it a step further, traders are considering that there will be less refinances. If rising interest rates are accelerated, then the number of refinances will diminish faster. That should make perfect sense to you. If not, then let me explain…when a borrower refinances, they pay off the existing mortgage. As an investor of these mortgages, the Fed would get an influx of cash from the payoff and that cash would be used to buy more bonds which in turn would help keep interest rates low. But if rates go too high, refinances will fall off significantly, meaning there will be less payoffs of existing mortgages and less cash flow for the Fed to buy more bonds.  It exasperates the problem.  My analogy is an ice-covered lake. As the temperature rises, the surface melts and creates cracks in the ice. These cracks will feed down to the bottom of the ice carrying the warmer water from above which accelerates the melting. Traders realize this and have been selling off bonds as a result. When traders sell off bonds, our rates/pricing worsen.

FOR ALL THESE REASONS, traders sold off bonds. It took a whole year to get the bond prices high and our rates/pricing so aggressive. But because of these concerns after Trump was elected, bonds lost all the year’s gains in less than 2 weeks.  As always, this is intended to give you talking points with your borrowers. REMEMBER, borrowers are more likely to do business with you if they trust you. By understanding what’s going on, and being able to communicate the same, you instill trust. I hope all of this helps. If my explanations are unclear, or if you disagree, I would love to hear from you.
chart2222
%d bloggers like this: