Phil Grossfield's Blog


Again Daddy, Please! Bonds Down Alert

chihulyAgain Daddy, Please!  In Seattle we visited the Chihuly Glass Garden. It’s really cool and I recommend it. In fact, my 5-year old son liked it so much he sat through one of the informational movies and after we went through the whole place he begged to go through it again. Stunned by his incredible focus and continued interest we back-tracked the entire museum so he could see it again. How often does your kid fall in love with art?  We were quite pleased. I took this 15-second video of one of the glass sculptures.

My Schedule:  Available all day….

My Market Watch:   Bonds Down & Getting Worse – Pricing Better Than Yesterday Morning So Far…  The Fannie Mae bond is down -40bps on the day already. Since pricing came out this morning the bond has fallen and a mid-day reprice for the worse would not be difficult to predict.  Speaking of predictions, I predicted yesterday morning pricing would improve and it came true as Interbank issued two reprice improvements. But this morning we lost most of those gains and rates were published similar to yesterday morning…the exception is improved Arm pricing this morning from yesterday by +0.125.

c24I’ve been researching the market but can’t come up with any definitive reason bonds are selling off. I’ve seen no nasty or uplifting economic reports this morning. Housing starts and building permits were close to expectations. But the downturn in bond trading is concerning because we are nearing a critical floor of support. We certainly do not want to see it fall much lower or we could lose another -40bps or so. This would make pricing worse. I advise locking…at least that’s what I would tell my Mom. But do your own research and make your own decisions on whether to float or lock…my disclaimer is below….

My Disclaimer

Perspective.  30-Year Fixed Average Rates:  Past 40 years:  8.15%    Past 30 years:  7.45%    Past 20 years:  6.52%    Past 10 years:  5.72%

A word on locks.  Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension.  This is good smart business.

distinguish_yourselfDistinguish Yourself. In order to succeed in this business and in this market, you must find a way to distinguish yourself from other LOs. That is, if you are going to get more reliable referral sources, you must be able to clearly convey several compelling reasons why they should use you….My calendar is getting full – I am scheduling presentations to discuss (1) How to Be Successful In The Future Market, (2) Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and (3) How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs.  Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….

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