Phil Grossfield's Blog



alaska_tracy_arm_fjordVOMIT, HO! GLACIER, HO!  Quarantined. Yes, my 8-year old vomited on our second day at sea and ran a temperature of 102.7 that night. She was quarantined and therefore so was I. But a shot in the butt stopped the vomiting and the whole incident lasted but 24 hours. During the drama our cruise ship traveled up the Tracy Arm Fjord which is in Alaska near Juneau.  The imagery was so beautiful it’s hard to explain…peaceful and comforting. The glacier in the picture above was incredible to see…I had never seen one before other than in pictures. The boat got real close, in fact the closest in its history due to favorable weather and visibility.

I got the 8-year old to come outside and look at the glacier…I explained what a glacier is and how cool it was that we got to see it up close. Her response, “boring, can I go watch TV now?”  I resisted the impulse to knock her out and said, “go ahead.”  Argh.

My Schedule:  Available all day….

My Market Watch:   Bonds Getting Hammered – Pricing Significantly Worse. The Fannie Mae bond is down -56bps on the day already and pricing came out much worse. Stocks are down too. This is rare and the result of the Fed discussions about tapering QE earlier than later. This is a curious situation…the Fed is essentially determining if they should start tapering back QE sooner because of strong economic data. That is, if the economy is doing well, then tapering is justified.

Jobless claims fell meaning there were fewer people claiming they are out of work. Obviously if there are fewer people out of work this is a sign the economy is doing well. Whenever the economy is interpreted as performing well, bond traders typically invest in stocks and pull money out of bonds to do so. When that happens, bond prices fall and our rates/pricing worsen. Since stocks are not jumping on the news, I predict bond prices will bounce back. If I’m right, we should see some improvement in rates/pricing. I hope I’m right.  Please do your own research in determining whether to lock or float a rate lock.

My Disclaimer

Perspective.  30-Year Fixed Average Rates:  Past 40 years:  8.15%    Past 30 years:  7.45%    Past 20 years:  6.52%    Past 10 years:  5.72%

A word on locks.  Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension.  This is good smart business.

distinguish_yourselfDistinguish Yourself. In order to succeed in this business and in this market, you must find a way to distinguish yourself from other LOs. That is, if you are going to get more reliable referral sources, you must be able to clearly convey several compelling reasons why they should use you….My calendar is getting full – I am scheduling presentations to discuss (1) How to Be Successful In The Future Market, (2) Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and (3) How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs.  Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….

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