Phil Grossfield's Blog

A-Rod – Dempster Yankees – Red Sox   Dempster’s an idiot. That being said, this was a great game…it had everything!  (1) You have the perfect villain in Alex Rodriguez. Why is he perfect?  Because it’s hard to hate him. He’s always calm and he always says the right thing. I want him to be innocent of using performing enhancing drugs…I really do. And I want to believe him…for real.

But it’s hard to believe him because everyone who claims innocence after being accused of taking PEDs ends up being guilty, and worse yet, they almost always end up admitting it once the evidence is too strong to justify continued denial. That just enhances the deception and deceitfulness. When it comes to PEDs, a player is guilty until proven innocent. Despite being a defense-attorney at heart, I can’t help but take this same position with A-Rod…he’s guilty until he proves to me otherwise. Sorry man, I want to believe you…and I really do hope you’re found innocent.  

(2) Dempster throws a pitch behind A-Rod’s legs. Okay, message sent…we’ll let it go even though I think the whole throwing pitches intentionally at a ballplayer is ridiculous and shows the worst in sportsmanship. BTW, I find fighting in hockey equally disgusting…but that is an argument for another day. Then after throwing three balls in a row (3-0), and thus knowing a strike is required, Dempster hits A-Rod square. Are you blanking kidding me?! That one we can’t let go. What an idiot. (3) Later in the game A-Rod takes one deep against Dempster for a home-run…I thought only Hollywood was allowed to do that! (4) The Yankees come from behind to win. Like I said, this game had it all.

My Schedule:  I was in a conference call this morning and I have a meeting at 3p…otherwise available.

My Market Watch:   Bonds Down – Pricing Worse Than Friday.  The Fannie Mae bond is down -62bps on the day and it just keeps getting uglier. I don’t even see anything in the news or reports that justify this sell-off.  And, it keeps falling…at this point a mid-day reprice for the worse is probable unless things turn around quickly.

Well, my prediction that pricing would bounce back this morning proved incorrect and the bond continues to be sold off by investors. The sell-off is no doubt the result of bond traders fearing the worst, a drop below a critical level (floor) of support. Once the bond dropped below the Lobby, traders kept selling while looking for some support below…the garage.  As it stands, I’m not exactly sure where the garage is…but it’s a least -50bps further down.

In the absence of economic data or geopolitical news to guide traders, they will use these floors of support to help them in deciding whether to buy or sell bonds. Think of it as a glass elevator…with the bond price as the elevator. When the bond elevator is going down, traders look to see what floor the elevator will stop on…they might buy when the elevator stops hoping it will go back up to higher floors and not continue down to the garage. If it stops and heads back up, traders will start buying bonds again and prices will recoup. But if the elevator continues going down, traders will dump bonds and prices will worsen. This is what we’re seeing right now….

My Disclaimer

Perspective.  30-Year Fixed Average Rates:  Past 40 years:  8.15%    Past 30 years:  7.45%    Past 20 years:  6.52%    Past 10 years:  5.72%

A word on locks.  Even though turn-times are fast, I advise longer term locks or at least a pricing cushion to account for possible lock extensions. Flexibility in getting additional days is not as elastic. I advise 45 day Locks. If you must lock 30 days then be sure to build in additional rebate in case you need to pay for an extension.  This is good smart business.

Distinguish Yourself. In order to succeed in this business and in this market, you must find a way to distinguish yourself from other LOs. That is, if you are going to get more reliable referral sources, you must be able to clearly convey several compelling reasons why they should use you….My calendar is getting full – I am scheduling presentations to discuss (1) How to Be Successful In The Future Market, (2) Where to Look For Additional Referral Sources, and (3) How To Distinguish Yourself From Other LOs.  Let me know if you’re interested in a presentation….