Phil Grossfield's Blog

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  There is a very gratifying feeling with successfully fixing something yourself. Keep in mind that calling me a handyman would be a gross exaggeration…something like calling Donald Trump modest.  Anyway, over the years my father-in-law helped me with enough projects that I’m much more confident about tackling things I never would have attempted in the past.  But when it comes to computers, I’ve always been more confident and adventurous…it’s the geek in me I guess.  About 4 months ago after I bought my traveling-crazed wife a new lightweight Ultrabook computer, I inherited her old 100-pound slow-running and hot-to-the-touch laptop.  Mind you “old” means within five years in the computer age…it was still a perfectly adequate albeit unpleasant machine in its present condition.  So, I decided to self-refurbish her old computer and see if I could use it.  That meant defaulting the computer to factory settings and reinstalling all the software one program at a time, etc.  Although it sounds somewhat painless, it was a pretty big project.  And I executed it successfully and the laptop had worked flawlessly for four months.  UNTIL, just the other day at Starbucks it made some clicking sounds and then sparks sprung out from the mini fan…yes sparks!  YOWZA!  The person sitting next to me at Starbucks gave me a pretty concerned look, that same sort of look I get from kid-less observers to one of my kids having a mini-tantrum in a public place.  I chuckled, shut down, and headed home.  It was time to fix the computer!  I decided there must be a tiny broken piece of plastic or something in the fan causing the sparks.  And so, I took the laptop completely apart to investigate…I mean I totally dismantled it…see the picture.  I cleaned every millimeter of the innards with a small brush and then carefully reassembled everything.  Not only did I find the culprit causing the sparks, but it was extremely dusty and dirty in there…now it’s spotless and running beautifully.  Success!  Satisfaction!  For now anyway….

My Schedule: Available all day….

My Market Watch:  Rates are slightly better today by 0.125 in certain places.  With little reports this week you can expect rates to trade opposite the stock market, that is, if stocks perform well, bonds will probably not and rates will remain worse or get worse.  Conversely, if stocks perform poorly, then rates could improve.  Tomorrow is the Fed Minutes release from the last meeting and that sometimes triggers movement if something pops up on the minutes that was not acknowledged after the actual meeting.  Otherwise, everyone is watching the bond’s movement to see if it stays above certain moving averages (floors of support and ceilings of resistance)…read my Glass Elevator Analogy from Friday.  ||  Did you see the CFPB report?  “CFPB” stands for Consumer Financial Protection Bureau…they are the financial services watchdog of late.  Anyway, they just put a report that recommends lenders and Brokers offer on every single loan a no-fee, no-point mortgage and they seem to have abandoned their suggestions for a mandatory flat fee by LOs which is good in my opinion.  Also, they are suggesting more or revised LO qualification requirements and specific requirements for conflict resolution.  Here are the proposed CFPB rules, here is the link to the CFPB release, here is an article by The Wall Street Journal, and here is a link to a CFPB website with a nice little video for consumers to watch.  |||   DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST!    My Disclaimer

Updated Frequently:                                                                                 

My Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration.

My Procedures are updated all the time – check it out.…

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST!

My Schedule: I am working from home all morning and then out this afternoon but available….

My Market Watch:  The Fannie 30-year bond is dancing on a floor of support and the question is, will that floor become a ceiling?  Phil, what the heck are you talking about?  Well, think of bonds as a glass elevator…when traders buy bonds the glass elevator goes up and when it sells it goes down.  Now, if you visualize the glass elevator, when the elevator goes up it goes past ceilings and when it goes down it goes past floors, right?  Got that?  Okay, from afar, you don’t know whether the elevator will go up to the top floor, or just up one or two floors before coming back down.  But you do know that each time the elevator reaches a new floor, there’s a chance it might slow down and stop.  That’s how traders look at the market.  There are established floors and ceilings called moving averages.  As the bond trades it goes up and down near these floors and ceilings.  Traders know if the elevator goes past a floor, the next opportunity for it to stop is at the next floor up or down.  So, they trade accordingly…they might buy more thinking it will keep going up and then when it nears the next floor they start to sell in anticipation of heading down in the opposite direction, and vice versa.  Right now the bond is trading right on the 100-day moving average (S1) and traders are trying to figure out if it will go up or down.  They are thinking, will the elevator go up to the next floor and should I buy now?  Or, will it go down to the next floor below and should I sell while I’m ahead?  Can you dig it?  Does that make sense?  Let me know if you have any questions or comments, okay?  WHATEVER YOU DO, DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST!   Disclaimer

UPDATED FREQUENTLY:                                                                                 

My Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration

My Procedures are updated daily – check it out…

My Market Watch:  LOOK OUT BELOW!  The bond has fallen below an important floor of support and that is NOT a good sign.  If it falls even a wee bit more we could see a drop until it reaches the next lower Floor of Support and that my friends would not be a happy thing.  Rates are worse again by 0.125 this morning and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mid-day price worsening today.  DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!  It’s a downward spiral as of late.  Our only hope for better rates is some economic news or weather surges or something to give traders a reason to buy bonds, and let us all pray…..  WHATEVER YOU DO, DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST!   Disclaimer

My Mystery Lyric:  I saw my baby early one morning…She was walking on down the street — I saw my baby early this morning…She was walking on down the street — You know it hurt me, hurt me so bad…Made my poor heart skip a beat  — Answer

My Schedule: I am working from home all morning and then out this afternoon but available….

UPDATED FREQUENTLY:                                                                                 

My Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration

My Procedures are updated daily – check it out…

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST!  Read My Market Watch below

California LTV restrictions are gone!  CA is now grouped with most of the other approved states meaning LTV restrictions have been lifted.  Matrices on the portal have been updated.  Here are some common highlights:

• Purchases now 90% (previously 80%)
• Condos now 80%/90% (previously 70%)
• NOO now 70% (previously 60%)
• Cashout now 80% (previously 70%)
• No restrictions on max DTI (same as before) 

My Market Watch:  Rates are worse again and prices have dropped about 0.500 in two days.  DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST!  Pricing dropped below an moving average indicator and as such continues to drop.  Let me explain.  Traders look for signals in the marketplace to anticipate what pricing will do in the future.  Accordingly, they trade trying to capitalize on the information.  That certainly makes sense, right?  Well, one of the indicators traders look at Day Moving Averages (DMA) of bond prices over time.  Based on trends in the past and present, they try to predict what will happen if bonds fall below “floors of support” or go above “ceilings of resistance”.  Why is this significant right now?  Because the 30-year bond is trading below a previously established DMA.  So, most traders will not start buying bonds until some news or report gives them reason to buy bonds or the bond hits a lower floor.  This is a bit technical but it is logical and for those of you that are interested, I’m happy to discuss more…just reach out to me….  Disclaimer

My Schedule: I am working from home all morning and then out this afternoon but available….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  I missed you!  Now put ‘em up!  My daughter and 4-year old son hadn’t seen each other for 4 days…they missed each other.  My son said often during the last 4 days that he missed his best friend…his 7-year old sister.  She’s the one that gets down on the floor and plays with him all day.  Sure, me and the wife get down on the floor and play with him occasionally but we’re not as dedicated as his 7-year old sister is.  So then, why do they fight 2-minutes after being reunited?  I’m not exaggerating…TWO-MINUTES!   ||   This is cool…flipping cats has absolutely nothing to do with the mortgage business but it’s still interesting…ever wonder why a cat always lands on his feet?   |||   You guys see this?  Millionaire Snatches Up 650 Foreclosed Homes For $4.8 Million.

My Market Watch:  Rates are unchanged from Friday and with little going on today, there is no reason to expect volatility.  And stocks seem to be struggling in the early going which bodes well for sustained low rates.  Of course, any political or geopolitical news could always change things.  Weather is also something that can affect the markets.  Why you ask?  I’ll tell you why.  Because if there is a big weather surge that causes damage in a certain part of the globe, then trading can be affected by everything the part of the world contributes to the global economy.  How do you like me now?  Not exactly sure why I’m so spicy this morning, but I am!   Disclaimer

My Schedule: I have to pick up my car from being fixed but otherwise available all day….

UPDATED FREQUENTLY:

My Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration

My Procedures are updated daily – check it out…

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  It wouldn’t start.  This week I’ve been a single Dad for the most part.  Well, today’s schedule included getting my son to school and then getting my car to the dealership.  Unfortunately, when I tried to fire it up this morning the battery was dead.  Lovely.  Well, stuff happens, eh?  Looking on the bright side (1) I have my wife’s car since she is out of town so I could still get my son to school on time, (2) I called Geico and they sent over a truck to jump it for free – part of my policy, (3) I already had an appointment to get my car serviced so I guess if the battery is going to die on you it might as well be today, right? and (4) I have a service membership with my dealership so my loaner car is free.  🙂

My Market Watch:  Bonds are performing better and rates have improved.  I implore you DON’T LET YOUR LOCKS EXPIRE WITHOUT CONSULTING ME FIRST.  We need to analyze your lock against the current market and develop a strategy to either extend the lock or discuss the option of letting the lock expire and relocking with our Relock Policy in mind.  However, it is your responsibility to extend your lock…if you let your lock expire, your options become very limited…don’t let that happen.  Call me or email me so we can look at it, got it?  Good.  Let me know if you have any questions, okay?   Disclaimer

My Schedule: Just getting to my emails now and have one noon appointment…then available the remainder of the day….

UPDATED FREQUENTLY:

My Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration

My Procedures are updated daily – check it out…

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  Streetlinks is our AMC and although we still plan to add more to the list, I think Streetlinks has done a pretty good job for us to date.  Consider these numbers for the month of July:  5,150 completed appraisal orders;  5.6 business days average turn-time;  8.4 miles average proximity;  12.2% post-complete revisions and each performed on an average of 5.8 hours; and 2.1% completed appeals each performed an average of 14.3 hours.  All in all, not too bad.  We had a conference call with them yesterday and the AE’s addressed several issues.  The one I was most interested in was the proximity of the appraisers to the subject property…I do not want an appraiser who lives 30 miles from the subject and has no idea about the area, you dig?  I was happy to learn that average proximity was under 10 miles.  More importantly, Streetlinks told us that they are happy to approve more appraisers.  In fact, if you know an appraiser that should be hooked up with Streetlinks, I can help you get it done and Streetlinks does not charge the appraiser to enroll.  If you know an appraiser interested, please email me.

My Market Watch:  Bonds and rates stabilized this morning.  If you read my email yesterday then you know the 30-year bond fell through a floor of support.  Without any geopolitical news or other report to influence bonds higher, we could see it fall further and if that happens, rates would get worse as well.  Moreover, there is an auction today for 10-year notes and if it goes poorly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see bonds fall further meaning rates would suffer.  Of course this is all speculation, but it’s not a comfortable spot we’re in at the moment.  That being said, I’m seeing some positive activity with Bonds right now and they are trading higher between 6-12bps since rates were published this morning.  Let’s think positively and hope it shoots even higher!   Disclaimer

My Schedule: Working from home this morning.  I will be running around this afternoon and somewhat unavailable but will have plenty of time to return all calls and emails before the end of the day….

UPDATED FREQUENTLY:
Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration

My Procedures are updated daily – check it out…

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   Happy 80^th Birthday Dad!!!!!!

My Market Watch:  Pricing is down with minor reporting and European news.  However, there is a more alarming thing to consider…according to the Mortgage Market Guide, the bond has fallen through a floor of support.  Let me explain.  Traders look for signals in the marketplace to anticipate what pricing will do in the future.  Accordingly, they trade trying to capitalize on the information.  That certainly makes sense, right?  Well, one of the indicators traders look at are Moving Averages of bond prices.  Based on trends in the past and present, they can predict what will happen if bonds fall below “floors” or go above “ceilings.”  Why is this significant right now?  Because the 30-year bond is trading around and below a floor as I type…if it goes further south, then traders might not start buying the bond again until it hits a lower floor.  If that happens, you’ll see pricing get worse.  This is a bit technical but it is logical and for those of you that are interested, I’m happy to discuss more…just reach out to me….  Disclaimer

My Schedule: I was in a conference call with Operations all morning…now available throughout the day until 4:15p and then out with kids….

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:   56 Years!  Yes, my Mom and Dad just celebrated 56 years of marriage.  Seeing that I am very similar to my Dad, you have to admire my Mom!  Happy Anniversary Mom and Dad!  |||   Such is the life of a man with a traveling wife.  My wife is a travel writer and as such, I often times get to gladly pick-up additional parental obligations. 🙂

My Market Watch:  The Market has bounced back from the fall on Friday where we started lower and experienced a mid-day rate change for the worse.  Not much else to report today but I’ll be behind the computer all day and periodically checking economic news…I’ll do my best to let you know if I see any volatility….  Disclaimer

My Schedule: Behind the computer all day…done at 4:30p….

UPDATED FREQUENTLY:

Guideline Guidance to get a clean underwriting decision resulting in happiness and adulation, or, you could Ignore This and find yourself with a long list of conditions, a huge hassle, and massive frustration

My Procedures are updated daily – check it out…

My Schedule…and A Little Extra:  The first guy wanted $350 to fix my bike.  I would have paid it too but he was kind of a punk about it.  My kids are 7 and 4 and neighbor kids are about the same age and as a result biking is becoming a big deal.  Well, I haven’t ridden my mountain bike for about 12 years.  In fact, it’s been collecting dust from at least 4 different residences since I rode it last.  So, I took it to a bike shop to get an estimate on getting it functional or maybe even trading it in.  The first shop had a kid (early 20s) working the repair area and was clearly put-off by the mere presence of my dinosaur.  “Hey man, that bike was a mac-daddy ride in its day,” I said.  He wasn’t impressed.  He quoted me $350 dollars to fix it up.  Again, I probably would have paid it if he wasn’t such a punk.  But I took my mac-daddy ride to a bike shop in Solana Beach where Dan the Man quoted me $100, fixed it up in perfect working condition, and even put on a new kickstand.  How do you like me now punk?!

My Market Watch:  The market is all over the place.  Yesterday there was some suspicious activity on the markets and transactions are being investigated.  Both stocks and bonds were down yesterday which is unusual…although not the rule, typically stocks and bonds have an inverse relationship.  The European Central Bank “ECB” didn’t enlighten us on their plans and the Fed didn’t mention anything either.  As a result traders pulled money from stocks and invested in bonds this morning…rates bounced back from yesterdays mid-day change for the worse.  The big Jobs Report is tomorrow, Friday.  I anticipate the report will come in better than expected and as a result we might see bonds falter.  But I’ve been wrong before.  Lord knows if I could predict the future I wouldn’t be working with all of you…no offense.  Make your own decisions based on your own research when deciding to float or lock loans.  If the report comes in better than expected giving traders the strong economy vibe, then they will invest in stocks and not bonds and we’ll see rates get worse.  If it comes in worse than expected, then rates will stay strong…but to the extent they get better…there isn’t much room for improvement.  Let me know your thoughts….  Disclaimer

My Schedule: Today I’m in L.A. for a couple of appointments and will be available in-between.  My first appointment is at 10:30a and the other is at 2:00p.  I’ll be driving back to San Diego later in the early evening….