Phil Grossfield's Blog

Is Santa Real?  The 3rd-grade girl asked. My wife responded, “what do you want to believe?” My daughter responded using Jack Nicholson’s voice, “I want the truth.” So, my wife told her. Damn! Of course, my wife regrets telling her now, but not because the 8-year old knows the truth…that was coming eventually anyway. But the real damage was done to her little brother, the 5-year old.

Despite my wife adamantly instructing the girl not to say anything to her brother, guess what happened. Yep, she told him, in confidence of course. So when the boy started asking questions we knew immediately the source. Being a nice Jewish boy from Minneapolis, I am confused with this scenario. We did some damage control, but I fear the innocent belief my son had, which I fondly adored, might be lost. Hell, even I want to believe in Santa.

My Market Watch:  Bonds Flat – All Eyes on the Fed Meeting Tomorrow.  The 30-year Fannie Mae bond was up this morning but not by much after yesterday’s fall. Interbank’s overreaction of 4 reprices for the worse was fixed in this morning’s rate sheet. Trading will likely be light today as everyone awaits the Fed’s statement tomorrow regarding QE Tapering.

If you want my explanation of Quantitative Easing and Tapering, then read this: My QE and Tapering Explanation and Analysis. If you want my explanation of yesterday’s reprice craziness, then read this: My Update – Bonds Tank After Early Gains.

What’s going to happen tomorrow? One of 3 things:

1. The Fed completely backs off of QE Tapering. If this happens, traders would buy bonds in droves and the price of bonds would rocket. As a result, lender rates/prices would improve dramatically. Oh, in addition, the Fed also declares that everyone in the mortgage industry must take mandatory Happy Hour each day.
2. The Fed affirms QE Tapering but has limitations, both in scope and timing. Their policy is to taper but ever-so cautiously and slowly…stretched out over a long period of time to ensure the fragile economy can withstand the decrease in Fed purchases of MBS. The language used by the Fed is carefully constructed to ensure a clear message that QE is here to stay for the foreseeable future. If this happens, I suspect a minor sell off in bonds by traders. As a result, lender rates/pricing would worsen, but not too bad, and the market would stabilize in a short time frame.
3. The Fed affirms QE Tapering in full force. They announce their intentions to significantly taper QE. Moreover, they issue a tentative aggressive schedule of tapering beginning immediately. Upon hearing the news traders sell off bonds and the price drops intensely. As a result, lenders issue several reprices for the worse and rates increase significantly. Everyone holds their breath until the market settles down.

I’m putting my money on #2. Why? Well, #1 is as likely as the Minnesota Vikings winning the Superbowl this year, and if you’re not a football fan, you should know the Vikings are not looking good. Although nobody I know believes #1 will happen, there are many who believe #3 will happen. But I’m going with #2 if for no other reason than I need to think positively. For some reason I think the Fed will soften their language, and I’m hoping this will be enough to stop the volcano from exploding. Let me know your thoughts….

My Disclaimer

My Schedule:  Available before 3p, then unavailable….

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

QE Tapering Explained – For my explanation QE and tapering, read my QE analysis from an earlier post.  

LO Comp, Ability To Repay Qualified Mortgages. Here is Fannie’s announcement about ATR – Ability To Repay, QM – Qualified Mortgages, and the new compensation rules:  Fannie Guide Announcement.  And here is a video by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – CFPB explaining Qualified Mortgages and Ability To Repay guidelines :

Bonds Tank After Early Gains. The 30-year Fannie Mae bond was up +70bps this morning and then sold off and has dropped down almost to the opening point. We lost -50bps since rates were published. Moreover, Interbank issued 4 reprices for the worse…it’s rare to see 4 in a row…I think I know why.

Please note, before I begin, I will not be including the Washington D.C. shootings in my analysis…I’m still trying to get a handle on that news, and how it might affect the market.

First, the air is thick, like butter thick, with the pending Fed monetary policy decision coming on Wednesday. Pretty much everyone expects the Fed to announce QE Tapering which will decrease the amount of bonds the Fed buys. In my opinion, even though everyone knows the Fed is going to announce tapering, traders are still ready to sell off bonds on the news. I am hoping, praying, that the Fed announces a mild and tempered policy of tapering. My hope is that traders will not sell off bonds in force on the news. Remember, when traders sell off bonds, the price drops and our rates worsen.

Second, traders aggressively bought bonds this morning presumably on the news that Larry Summers pulled himself from consideration to replace Bernanke as the Fed chair. However, I believe the amount of trading this morning was more than would have been expected. So, the higher trading resulted in a very high bond price, higher than normal if you will. And since traders like to buy low and sell high, and since they know the price will likely fall soon with the Fed announcing monetary policy, they sold off to take the gains. Put another way, having such a high bond price this morning was like putting a juicy steak in front of my friend Barry…he would stare intensely, growl and pounce.

Third, the military response to Syria is essentially on hold. Since the threat of military action isn’t imminent, traders are not deterred from investing in stocks…and bonds indirectly would suffer as a result.

Fourth, I think the technical signals for bond trading were getting a little scary for a Capital Markets department. As you can see from the graph, the bond went up +70bps early this morning as it neared Ceiling 3, and then it dropped all day and eventually fell through Floor 2. The next floor down is the Lobby and Capital Markets did not want to take a chance on the bond falling so low. So, I think they repriced 4 times for the worse simply to protect themselves…a damage control strategy.

In my opinion, the only hope for a stabilized bond price, and therefore subsequent stabilized lender rates, is to hear a mild statement on Wednesday from the Fed regarding QE tapering. Ideally the Fed would back away from QE tapering altogether which would result with a huge bond rally…rates would improve dramatically. I’d say the chances of that happening are at least as good as me winning the CA State Lottery on Wednesday and becoming a millionaire with a private jet…IT COULD HAPPEN, but I need to go buy a lottery ticket first. Even more likely is the hope for a mild statement on QE tapering that gives traders the impression that QE is here to stay in good force for many months to come. This would give traders a good reason to buy bonds which would help rates tremendously. But what we do not want to hear is a statement from the Fed that they have decided to significantly taper QE starting immediately. This would be devastating for bonds and our rates, and many think this is exactly what is going to happen. I choose to think positive…I’m going to go buy a lottery ticket.

For tomorrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a minor improvement early in the morning and then a similar sell off as the day goes on. I’D LOVE SOME FEEDBACK…please let me know your thoughts…..

My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Available all day….

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

QE Tapering Explained – For my explanation QE and tapering, read my QE analysis from an earlier post.

LO Comp, Ability To Repay Qualified Mortgages. Here is Fannie’s announcement about ATR – Ability To Repay, QM – Qualified Mortgages, and the new compensation rules: Fannie Guide Announcement. And here is a video by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – CFPB explaining Qualified Mortgages and Ability To Repay guidelines :

Lower Your Comp For Higher Volume?  The window to change Lender-Paid Comp Plan for Brokers begins today and ends on Monday 9/30.  This is a relevant discussion for correspondent bankers too…it’s the same analysis on whether a new commission strategy should be implemented. The questions are:

1. Should you reduce your commission as a strategy to increase volume?  That is, if you reduce your commission, will this make you more competitive and allow you to win against other LOs?
2. Should you increase your commission as a strategy to increase revenue?  That is, if volume is decreasing because of the market, should you make more on each transaction?

My opinion depends on your current marketing strategy.  If you rely on consumer marketing then I advise you reduce your commission to strengthen your competitiveness. However, if you rely on solid long-lasting referral sources, then you might want to increase your compensation to account for an expected drop in volume. I am happy to discuss…call or email anytime….

The window for Brokers to change their comp plan is currently open…but it closes on Monday 9/30. If you do nothing your comp plan will stay the same.  If you change your comp plan it will be effective for submission packages uploaded on October 1 and for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Let me know if you require instructions on how to change your plan….

My Market Watch.  Bonds Up Then Lost Half The Gains Fast – Fed Meets This Week On QE Tapering. The 30-year Fannie Mae bond was up ~ +70bps this morning after Larry Summers withdrew his name from the Fed Chair appointment race. Since he bowed out, there is less uncertainty about who is going to get the appointment, traders like it when there is less uncertainty so they started buying big early this morning. But then  bond sold off and half of those gains went away, and rather quickly. My guess is traders saw this as an opportunity to take some quick profits ahead of the Fed Meeting this week…and that’s where all the focus will be the next couple of days. It’s all about QE Tapering.

Without more information, my previous explanation is good…at least I think so…let me know your thoughts…..

My Disclaimer

My Schedule:  Available all day….

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

QE Tapering Explained – For my explanation QE and tapering, read my QE analysis from an earlier post.  

LO Comp, Ability To Repay Qualified Mortgages. Here is Fannie’s announcement about ATR – Ability To Repay, QM – Qualified Mortgages, and the new compensation rules:  Fannie Guide Announcement.  And here is a video by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – CFPB explaining Qualified Mortgages and Ability To Repay guidelines :

He Broke My Plate.  He was angry…really really mad…and why shouldn’t he be? After all, my 5-year old son wanted pizza for dinner and I made him a quesadilla. How dare I…what nerve! So, he slid his plate across the table, onto the floor, and it shattered. The first question you might ask is why would I give a 5-year old boy dinner on a real plate?  The second question you might ask is why would I serve him on my good wedding China? Good questions…nicely done! Well, first of all, my son doesn’t usually behave this way and second, our good wedding china is what we use every day. So back off, okay?

The boy is simply uncomfortable because his Mom, the TravelMama, has been gone all week…she is in Hawaii on business…ahhhh the life of a travel writer. My son is a Mama’s boy and despite my effort to shower him with love to fill the void, it just isn’t the same as what his Mommy can give him.

It’s been a tough week for him…I’ve been emailed not once, but twice from his teacher about misbehavior. For my part, I’ve stayed calm and understanding…something I’ve diligently worked on.

After he broke the plate I sent him to his room…this gave me some time to cool down and assess my options. Then I cleaned it up but left the vacuum and garbage out so he could see the aftermath. During this whole time my 8-year old daughter was all over me. “What are you going to do Daddy? Are you going to spank him? Are you going to take something away? Does he still get dessert?” Ugh.

After about 10 minutes I went upstairs, put him on my lap, and calmly discussed the situation. What concerned me was when he described himself as a “bad boy.” I said, “no, you’re not a bad boy, you’re a good boy that sometimes makes bad decisions, but no matter what you do I will always love you.”  That seemed to help. Then he asked if he still got to have dessert. I told him he could have half a dessert if he earned it…and he did…he cleaned up and then produced the product you see in the picture to the right. Who’s your Daddy?!

My Market Watch. Bonds Up – Rates/Pricing Similar to Yesterday Morning. Fed Meets Next Week – QE Tapering. The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading higher +19bps on the day.  Trading is otherwise quiet.  I suspect the trading is slow because everyone is gearing up for the big week we have next. Yes, the Fed will meet to discuss monetary policy. And it’s all about QE tapering.

What is QE – Quantitative Easing? Quantitative Easing is a term used to describe the Fed’s intervention strategy into the bond market. In an effort to stabilize the markets, the Fed employed a strategy of buying billions of dollars of mortgage backed securities – MBS – bonds. Put another way, the Fed created an artificial market of low-interest rates during our economic crisis by buying bonds each month. This strategy has kept rates low and stimulated the mortgage business for a long time.

What does Tapering QE mean? A few months ago Ben Bernanke and the Fed announced their strategic decision to begin tapering QE. This means they intend to decrease the amount of bonds the Fed buys. They are doing this because they feel the economy has recovered enough to withstand a more natural lending environment where they don’t have to buy billions of bonds each day. Because the Fed has said it will decrease, or taper its buying of bonds, traders have pulled their investments out of bonds and as a result rates and pricing have worsened dramatically over the last 5 months.

What is all the buzz about next week’s meeting? Many believe our economy is strong enough to withstand tapering…they want the Fed to significantly decrease the buying of bonds, and right now. Others, like myself, feel the economy is still extremely fragile and want the government to continue buying bonds…or at the very least limit tapering to a minimum and stretch it out over a long period of time. Next week everyone is expecting some insight from the Fed on what they intend to do.

How will next week’s Fed Meeting affect us? If traders interpret the statements as a reaffirmation of QE tapering, and if they feel the Fed intends to accelerate either the amount of tapering or the speed of tapering, then the bond market will drop and rates/pricing will get worse…much worse. On the other hand, if the Fed softens their language, and they give traders the impression that QE will continue in strong force for some time to come, then we could see a significant reversal in bond trading. In this case traders would invest in bonds and when that happens rates/pricing stabilize or improve.

What’s going to happen? I have no blanking idea. As I always say, if I knew such things I’d be a gazillionaire. But I will try. But not today…next week….

My Disclaimer

My Schedule: I have a meeting this morning until 10:30a and then will return all calls and emails. This afternoon I have to take my son to the doctor so I will be unavailable after 2p.

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

QE Tapering Explained – For my explanation QE and tapering, read my QE analysis from an earlier post.  

LO Comp, Ability To Repay Qualified Mortgages. Here is Fannie’s announcement about ATR – Ability To Repay, QM – Qualified Mortgages, and the new compensation rules:  Fannie Guide Announcement.  And here is a video by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – CFPB explaining Qualified Mortgages and Ability To Repay guidelines :

Angelina – Love It!  It shouldn’t be that amazing…but it is…and I love you for it. I’ve had time to reflect on the decision Angelina Jolie made to have a double mastectomy. In fact, I started writing this post months ago…but never got around to posting it. I do that sometimes…I’ll start writing something and then wait for the right time to stick it in here. But let’s get back to the point, shall we?

As you know, I recently lost a close friend to Cancer. She had a double mastectomy too and it prolonged her life for years before the cancer got into her brain. You can read my last post about it here – O Captain My Captain. So, you can imagine I, like so many of you, have an opinion about such things.

Here’s what I have to say about breasts…if they can kill you…get rid of them. Who really cares anyway?  Public opinion about beauty is completely messed-up. We teach our kids through advertising that they should look a certain way which is absolutely redonculous (yes, I spelled it wrong on purpose). And then there are the warriors of this imagery such as Angelina Jolie. She is arguably one of the most attractive women in Hollywood…ever. And she chose her health first, for herself and for her family. I love it. What a fantastic message it sends to women and girls. Beauty is internal and mental…it has nothing to do with our outward appearance. What bravery…ego-less bravery. I saw a quote by Joan Rivers…I like it because it comes from a woman that has had more surgery than Elvis ate bacon. She said, “For all these women that are going through this and going, ‘Oh my God, I am not a woman anymore,’ here is one of the most beautiful women in the world saying, ‘This is what I have done, and I am still Angelina Jolie.'” Damn straight Joan! And damn straight Angelina.

My Market Watch. Bonds Up. The The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading higher +16bps on the day and has been flat since early this morning.

Syrian Strike?  For my analysis, read Syria Strike Postponed and No Syria Strike?

QE Tapering Explained – For my explanation QE and tapering, read my QE analysis from an earlier post.  

LO Comp, Ability To Repay Qualified Mortgages. Here is Fannie’s announcement about ATR – Ability To Repay, QM – Qualified Mortgages, and the new compensation rules:  Fannie Guide Announcement.  And here is a video by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – CFPB explaining Qualified Mortgages and Ability To Repay guidelines :

My Disclaimer

My Schedule: I have a meeting this morning until 10:30a and then will return all calls and emails. This afternoon I have to take my son to the doctor so I will be unavailable after 2p.

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

Strangely Patriotic; Syria Postponed. I was the first one to the office which was typical. I turned on my computer and realized instantly that something was wrong. I clicked to CNN.com and literally thought to myself, “is it a joke? No, oh my, oh my G-d!” Alone, I ran to another room where we had a TV and flipped the switch…slowly I backed away and instinctively found a seat…eyes and mouth wide open…. The next office dweller dashed in and said, “did you see…?” “Yes, I have it on the TV,” I interrupted. He sat down as if in slow motion…we watched in silence.

One by one our employees walked in and slowly sat down…as the first one to see what was happening that morning on the TV, I filled them in…blow-by-blow. The first plane hit the first tower…then speculation…then the second plane hit…no more speculation. And then we all watched together as the first tower collapsed. I remember the gasp.

My memory is vivid…and I wasn’t in Manhattan…I didn’t witness it first-hand. Most of us know someone or someone who know someone who was there, or maybe someone who died. As I explained to my children, yes, there are bad people out there and it’s impossible to even try to understand what goes through their heads. But there are more good people in the world…we must challenge heartless, baseless hatred by being brave, thoughtful, and kind…listen to your gut and act from your heart. It was a confusing time…one of anger, sadness, and strangely patriotic. Do you remember Whitney Houston’s performance of the Star Spangled Banner? Watch it, it’ll make you tear-up. Whitney Houston sings the Star Spangled Banner.

My Market Watch. Bonds Up. The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading higher after President Obama backed off an immediate air strike at Syria. I did not expect stocks and bonds to react to the news the way it did…and it’s left trading a bit, well, confused. I expected a delayed air strike to bode well for stocks since war usually results in market instability. But it looks like traders are even more uncertain because of the White House’s changed position. Because the strike on Syria is still basically pending, traders would rather invest in bonds where it’s safer. Here was what I wrote yesterday: No Syria Strike?

My Disclaimer

My Schedule: I have a meeting this morning until 10:30a and then will return all calls and emails. This afternoon I have to take my son to the doctor so I will be unavailable after 2p.

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

Syrian President Assad

My Market Watch. Bonds Down. Fixed -0.125; ARMs Unchanged; Jumbo Fixed & ARMS Unchanged. The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading lower this morning and is currently down -12bps but that is okay since it was down more earlier.

The bond has been selling better as the morning progresses…now up +9bps since rates were published. If the trend continues and bonds improve we could see a reprice improvement today. So, if you were thinking about locking, you might want to hold off to see how the market shakes up.

The big news is Syria…will President Obama back off and agree to a diplomatic solution? Considering news reports that the President’s approval ratings are in the tank, and that public opinion does not support a strike, and that the international community does not support a strike, a strike on Syria at this time is probably not in his best interests. That being said, I do support the White House in its objection to the use of chemical weapons, and I personally support a very aggressive response to it. Syria’s knee-jerk position to follow the Russian proposal seems to me a desperate attempt to hold off a strike. And since Syrian President Assad recently denied the mere existence of chemical weapons I think he’s full of it. But, maybe just the threat of an attack is all that the doctor ordered.

From a Wall Street trader’s perspective, a cease-fire is probably good for stocks, and bonds may suffer as a result. We need to wait and what statements come out of Capitol Hill today.

My Disclaimer

My Schedule: Available all day…

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

Crazy Weekend. As you are probably aware by now I adopted/rescued a puppy named Pongo. Someone tried cropping his ears (meaning they cut them off) and when it didn’t work out the way the planned they stuck him in a box with 3 other pups and left them for dead in a dumpster. We took him in and all is well.  I wanted to name him Vinnie after Vincent Van Gogh but my family ignored my wishes, which sucks since I paid for the damn thing…but what can you do? Pongo sleeps through the night which is awesome since the rest of the weekend was crazy-pants. And despite urinating all over the place he seems as well-adjusted as could be expected. We’re crate-training him meaning he’s in the crate unless watched closely. I suspect he had to fight for food in his early days since he seems very overly aggressive towards my 9-year old dog when it’s time to eat. So now I have 2 little kids, a 9-year old dog, a 14-year old cat, a wife, and now a high-energy pup to care for…life is busy…life is good.

In case you missed it, here is a news story about it: Mutilated Puppy Adopted by San Diego Family.

My Schedule:  Available all day…

My Market Watch:  Bonds Up – Pricing Improved. The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading well this morning and is up +36bps on the day.

The weak Jobs report Friday was just what the doctor ordered. And now there are more statements being made that increased rates might hurt the housing market further. Love it! And, war with Syria is still a very real possibility. All these things bode well for bonds.  But on September 18 the Fed will announce it’s plans regarding QE tapering. As you know by now this is where it gets sticky. I’m hoping they back off slightly and don’t come out guns-a-blazing. If so, we might be able to get away from this thing unscathed. Of course, if the bullets start flying then you can expect bonds to tank and pricing to worsen. But I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest the economy is not performing well enough to justify a full scale taper. I choose to think positively and hope for the best.

My Disclaimer

Happy Birthday To Me! Tomorrow is my 46th birthday. Interestingly enough my brother shares the same birthday except he was born 10 years earlier…he is 56 tomorrow. For my birthday I am going on a date with my wife tomorrow night for dinner and then the Dave Mathew’s Band concert, nice! And tomorrow night my best friend is taking me out for dinner and cocktails.

You may recall my post where a puppy was left in a closed box inside a dumpster with 3 other pups, and their ears were mutilated by some sick evil person. Well, we rescued one pup and took him home on Wednesday. I’m happy to report he is a good happy and seemingly well-adjusted pup. He slept through the night and has already brought a lot of joy into our home. His brothers and sister will be up for adoption soon. I WILL LIVE WITH JOY! Here is a news story about it: Mutilated Puppy Adopted by San Diego Family.

My Schedule: I have a luncheon appointment and will otherwise be available.

My Market Watch: Jobs Report Surprises – Bonds Up – Pricing Improved. The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading well this morning and is up +75bps on the day.

The Jobs report was expected to come in at 175,000 new jobs and most economists and news sites expected even more. But the report came in low at 169,000 and surprised everyone. As a result, the bond trading exploded as stocks sold off. I cannot emphasize how beautiful this report is, and how timely it was needed. if you read my late in the day Market Watch yesterday then you know how important it was.

Now things will focus on Fed policy regarding QE tapering. And, with a weaker than expected Jobs Report, the question will be whether tapering is justified. Can the economy handle significant tapering right now? The days to come will be quite interesting. We have a new Fed Chairman to replace the retiring Bernanke, a potential international conflict in Syria, and Fed policy on QE tapering. For now, we are thrilled to see improved pricing this morning and a recovery of yesterday’s losses.

My Disclaimer

Jumbo Launch Tomorrow!   It was scheduled for launch today but management decided to rewrite the guidelines to include higher LTVs. How can I argue with that?  I NEED INPUT ON PRICING. If you can compare our price to other jumbo lenders I would appreciate it. Please email me if you are interested in helping me do a price comparison.

My Schedule:  Available all day….

My Market Watch:   Bonds Down Slightly – Fixed Pricing Better than Yesterday Morning & ARMs Unchanged.  The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is down -14bps on the day after initially being up. This week there is a lot going on…it’s a crap shoot on which way bond prices will go. There are multiple things happening that could dramatically affect bond prices. We could be in for a monumental roller coaster ride….

Jobs Report Friday.  On Friday the Jobs Report is released and it is expected 177,000 new jobs will be reported. If the actual number comes in low, then rates/pricing would be expected to improve. Why? Because if less new jobs are reported than expected, then it suggests the economy is worse than thought. Therefore, traders would rather invest in bonds than stocks and when that happens rates/pricing improve. Conversely, if more new jobs are reported than expected, then rates/prices should get worse
…this is what I am expecting based on what I’m reading this morning.

QE Tapering. The results of the Jobs Report will no doubt affect a decision on QE Tapering. From what I gather, a strong economic report would work to justify tapering since it would be evidence the economy could handle the hit. However, if the Jobs Report comes out weak and in doing so indicates less than expected economic health, then we might see a reprieve from QE Tapering, or, at least a softer approach by the Fed. This would help rates/pricing or at a minimum not hurt us too bad. Since I believe the Jobs Report is expected to come in higher than expected, I expect QE Tapering language to be unkind and rates/pricing to worsen.  

Syria Air Strike. We should know today. I expect a decision to strike, and I expect this decision will result in a decline with the stock market and an improvement in the bond market. If I’m right, and please note some vehemently disagree with me, then an announcement confirming an air strike should result in improved rates/pricing. If I’m right about the Jobs Report and QE Tapering language, then an air strike on Syria might prove to balance the bond market out and take the sting out of a bond sell off and worsened pricing. You can read more about how I analyzed the pending Syria air strike here and again here.

My Disclaimer