Phil Grossfield's Blog

Justin Bieber Conversation. There are two reasons I’m writing about Justin Bieber:  (1) because my daughter was asking about him this morning on the way to school, and (2) because I couldn’t think of anything else to write about. That last one is the real reason because quite frankly I really couldn’t care any less about Justin Bieber. But since my daughter was asking I thought I’d share my conversation.

Daughter:  “Why is Justin Bieber in jail?”
Daddy:  “He’s not in jail honey, but he was in jail and now he’s home with his family.”
Daughter:  “But why Daddy, what did he do?”
Daddy:  “He made bad choices. He used drugs and drove a car while drinking. I have raised the two of you to know the difference between right and wrong, I suspect Justin knows too. But he decided to choose wrong over right and now he is paying for those mistakes.”
Daughter:  “That’s good, I hate his music anyway.”
Daddy:  “Well, we don’t want to wish bad things on anyone. Instead of focusing your energy towards him in a negative way, why don’t you choose to send positive thoughts his way so he can find the courage to choose right over wrong.”
Son:  “I already sent good thoughts Daddy!”
Daddy:  “Good job!  Both of you are fully capable of choosing your own path…I trust that you’ll choose the right one.  That doesn’t mean you won’t make mistakes along the way, but there can be serious consequences for some bad choices.  If you’re ever not sure what to do, come ask Mom or me…you can talk to us about anything, right?
Daughter:  “Is his Mom and Dad mad at him?”
Daddy:  “I’m sure they’re not pleased with his choices, but they still love him no matter what he does, just like we love you no matter what you do.  But he’s 19 years old…he’s an adult now and he is the only one that will have to pay for his mistakes, not his parents.”

My Schedule: I have a luncheon meeting today at noon and otherwise available…

My Market Watch:  Bonds Up – Prices Improved From Yesterday With Non-Conforming Jumbo Very Aggressive.  The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is up…in fact it opened higher than where it closed yesterday afternoon…+16bps higher.  As a result rates are much more aggressive this morning.

Today is a perfect example of the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds. Simply put, the bond market is doing well because traders are selling off stocks and buying bonds instead. I’ve been watching the bond closely this morning and noticed trading is fluctuating rapidly within a short range. That is, it’s going up and down but just barely and just above a floor of support. If you look at my graphic you can see how the bond opened higher than where it left off yesterday afternoon.  You’ll also notice that traders have been buying and selling with the bond literally touching the floor before bouncing higher.  To use my glass elevator analogy the bond elevator was heading downward, stopped at the Floor 1 and then headed back up. This pattern keeps repeating itself and I see this as a good thing…it means Floor 1 is a strong support, at least for now. The way I see it as long as the elevator doesn’t fall below Floor 1 it should be a good day for bonds.