Phil Grossfield's Blog

Fantasy Football Woes.   I’m having the worst Fantasy Football year ever. For many of you this news is probably extremely disappointing. I know, I know, you expect more from your Rep, but I just can’t get it together this year. I’ve been playing in my homie group for about 20 years, I even won it once, but this year is the worst ever…my team is just awful. As an example, I think my Defense is my best player. I’ve had injuries and players just not stepping up. This season is already over. That’s all I have to say about that.

My Market Watch:  Bonds Down Slightly – Gov’t Shutdown 15 – Fixed Pricing Worse.  The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading lower on the day but is actually up ever so slightly since our rates were published. But don’t expect a reprice improvement…everyone is listening intently on Washington…its everything right now.  Trading has come to a halt as everyone is keying listening to Capital Hill and the Fed. Once again the GOP attempted to resolve the impasse by trying to sneak in an alteration to Obamacare. Dudes! Obamacare is already a law…it was already enacted! You can’t change that this way…it’s inappropriate…it’s, it’s, it’s not right. GET OVER IT! Aaiiyyaayyaaaaaaaaaa.

Get Locks Before The End. I think it’s fairly obvious at this point that an end to the shutdown will result in a resurgence in stocks and bonds will suffer. An end is imminent in my opinion…I advise you use it as a catalyst to get some locked loans. Simply put, an end to the shutdown will increase a demand for stocks since traders will want to invest in the economy. When that happens bonds usually sell off which lowers its price. Capital Markets typically responds by adjusting rates/pricing for the worse.

Government Shutdown Remains. It is now day 9…I reiterate my point that Obamacare is a valid law, enacted by due process.  Again, if Republican leaders don’t like it, then they should work to change it using constitutional methods, not extortion. Whether you like Obamacare or not, and whether you are Democrat or Republican or otherwise, you should not excuse our leaders’ actions. I am extremely disappointed in our Republican leaders.

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

Interbank Will NOT Require Transcripts for all conforming and High-Balance Agency loan transactions. In order to facilitate loan closings during the government shutdown, Interbank has amended its requirements for IRS transcripts, Social Security number validation, and verification of employment…email me for specifics.

I flailed about like a fish fighting in the boat after being pulled out of the water…and then gasping…trying to breathe. You ever had that feeling? It’s awesome!  As I came into the house from grilling in the backyard to join neighbors and my wife, I attempted to sit on a bar-stool in front of the island in my kitchen.  I missed…  Falling down isn’t that bad if you’re even slightly prepared for it, you know, like when you can put your hand down to break the fall. But when you fall on your ass unexpectedly and with no way to break the fall, you tend to fall hard, very hard, and that’s exactly what happened to me. Yowza!

My tail hit the floor and that hurt real bad. There was a slight hesitation…and then my back spasmed and I couldn’t breathe…it threw me into the flailing fish-like action. My daughter was screaming…based on my reaction I think she thought my torso was severed from a Ninja attack…no doubt she will require psychiatric treatments. My wife tried to hold back her laughter…she’s been tormenting me all weekend. Aaarrrggg. You know those movies where someone is shot in the legs six times but still manage to run five miles to save the day…yeah, apparently that’s not me.

My Market Watch:  Bonds Up – Gov’t Shutdown Remains – Fixed Pricing Improved Yet Again.  The The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading higher about +16bps. But it was up higher earlier when rates were published and now it’s fallen about -12bps since then. Although this is not enough to warrant a mid-day rate change yet, Capital Markets has been trigger happy with mid-day reprices…as a price leader that tends to be the case since hedging is so critical. Be on the look out…if bonds fall much further you should expect a rate change for the worse.

The interesting thing is the government shut down has helped bonds tremendously. Why?  It’s indirectly helped because stocks have been affected negatively. When traders pull money out of stocks they will typically invest in bonds instead. And when traders invest in bonds the price improves and Capital Markets improves our rates. Watch out when the government goes back to work…my guess we’ll see a reversal and rates will climb fast.

Government Shutdown Remains. It is now day 7…I reiterate my point that Obamacare is a valid law, enacted by due process.  Again, if Republican leaders don’t like it, then they should work to change it using constitutional methods, not extortion. Whether you like Obamacare or not, and whether you are Democrat or Republican or otherwise, you should not excuse our leaders’ actions.

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

She is Not Invisible.  My wife is not invisible as she suggested in her heartfelt story, but apparently many women over the age of 40 feel that way. I don’t claim to understand women despite spending nearly the last 15 years with my beautiful adventurous Travelmama wife. But I do understand this…Colleen is thoughtful to a fault and courageous in her expression.  There are many stories she’s written over the years I admire, and these two are among them, even if I don’t understand why she feels the way she feels. But many obviously feel the same way…evident by the number and content of the comments. Her first story was Midlife Crisis in Maui and was followed by Finding Myself on a Horse in Hana. Here was my comment I posted to her story,

You have always been incredibly sexy and nothing has changed. I know you’re writing about how you feel, and I commend you for your bravery in that regard, but if you think you’re not sexy you’re wrong…crazy maybe…but definitely not not sexy.

Photos courtesy of Travelmamas.com.

My Market Watch:  Bonds Up – Government Shutdown Remains – Arm & Fixed Pricing Improved.  The 30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading higher about +15bps.

VIDEO: Doors Locked

Rates/pricing continue to be strong and improved, and I see no reason for that to change at the present moment. First, traders continue to buy bonds despite the Weekly Jobless Claims report coming in lower, meaning less people were claiming they are out of work. To traders a report such as this usually indicates an improved stronger economy and typically these traders would use this as a good reason to buy stocks and sell off bonds. Logically rates/pricing would worsen as a result…but not today. Bonds continue to hold their ground, no doubt because of the sustained government shutdown. Second, there are nasty storms looming in the Gulf…nasty weather has a tendency to work against stocks and indirectly in favor of bonds. For these two reasons, I expect our great rates/pricing to hold. That said, the trend or moving averages as we like to call them indicate rates have reached a high level of resistance. That is, the chances rates/pricing will continue to improve isn’t great, unless something positive happens to push them over the ceiling….

Government Shutdown Remains. It is now day 3 despite a meeting between President Obama and leaders of Congress last night. I really don’t think the President is going to back down and why should he? Obamacare is a valid law, enacted by due process. If Republican leaders don’t like it, then they should work to change it using constitutional methods, not extortion. Regardless of my opinion about the Act itself, as an attorney I am confused and even offended by our leaders’ actions.

No Jobs Report Tomorrow. Fed Meeting on Monetary Policy – QE Tapering Likely Delayed. The Jobs Report was scheduled for tomorrow but now it will not be released. Similarly, the Fed meeting this month to discuss QE tapering will likely be postponed or cancelled.

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines

Shutdown Impact – 4506 Transcript Delays.  First, my sarcastic post yesterday received a flurry of responses, mostly supportive, a few confused about my point. My main point was the Republican Party is completely out of line and it infuriates me since it has already lost two elections and now promises to alienate even more American voters. Simply put, Obamacare is already a law. Our elected officials’ job at this point is to provide a budget, not fight an already existing law. We cannot shut the government down at this point…it’s inappropriate and irresponsible both to our economy and to the Republican Party itself. I think the Republican Party is putting itself in even greater danger by doing so. But enough about that.

4506 Delay Because of Shutdown.  A direct impact of the shutdown is Interbank’s ability to receive ordered transcripts from the IRS. From what I understand, we aren’t going to get them. So, Interbank will do what it can to move transcript conditions PTF, and, we might even fund without the transcripts if the loan profile warrants it…but no promises. Everything will be case-to-case. I can tell you that any Jumbo loans, loans with DTI >40% and self-employed loans will probably not fund without transcripts.

New 4Q Comp Plans. If your comp plan changed for the 4th quarter it is applicable today. All loans that are submitted today, meaning you are uploading the submission package to Interbank, must reflect your new comp plan. When the loan was locked is irrelevant. Let me know if you have questions.

My Market Watch:  Bonds Down – Government Shuts Down – Arm & Fixed Pricing Unaffected Thus Far.  The  30-year Fannie Mae bond is trading lower about -15bps. Being a price leader can sometimes make Capital Markets trigger happy on mi-day reprices. If the bond ticks down another 5-10bps we could see a reprice for the worse.

Jobs Report Delayed?  The Jobs Report was scheduled for Friday but now it might be delayed.

Fed Meeting on Monetary Policy – QE Tapering Delayed?  Similarly, the Fed meeting this month to discuss QE tapering might also be affected…it might also get delayed. This is the one good thing about the shut down since any discussion of QE tapering would likely result in increased rates.

Wholesale: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines
Correspondent: Non-Conforming Matrix & Guidelines